Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 never knew melting snow didn't add to soil moisture. 12z euro brings no precip in to semi anyways.. Wish this baby could end up would up even further west than last nights euro. def potential for more than just moods flakes if it did. mood flakes = negligible amount of precip, you knew what I meant comparatively to the other 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 mood flakes = negligible amount of precip, you knew what I meant comparatively to the other 2. well if its just mood flakes the precip would be negligible either way to soil moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 never knew melting snow didn't add to soil moisture. 12z euro brings no precip in to semi anyways.. Wish this baby could end up wound up even further west than last nights euro. def potential in the sweet spot for more than just mood flakes if it did. Even a short spell of mood flakes on the backside of the precipitation would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 well if its just mood flakes the precip would be negligible either way to soil moisture. Sure but you are assuming this is even going to be a cold rain, 50 and rain isn't cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Even a short spell of mood flakes on the backside of the precipitation would be cool. was interesting for a time but unfortunately its not gonna come together as needed for this time of yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Sure but you are assuming this is even going to be a cold rain, 50 and rain isn't cold rain. well last nights euro was a cold rain/snow. today's euro is dry for MI.. I give up anyways as you're in one of your moods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 well last nights euro was a cold rain/snow. today's euro is dry for MI.. I give up anyways as you're in one of your moods. For you last night's run had a bit of snow/rain mix but models tend to overdo backside precip, and my mood is fine, I am just dealing in reality. If you want to believe your fantasy flakes that is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Never had snow on the brain here for this weeks stuff.. just been following the euro and hoping a lot of us get a decent drink like the last round of rains. I'm getting a little nervous this ends up not living up to all the hype here again in the far se part of wi. euro gives us .50"+ but keeps the heavier stuff back to the west and north..time will tell..and maybe things end up a little farther south. Not sure why I polluted this thread with next weeks possible rain, snow or cirrus event for the eastern lakes/ohio valley anyways. Just got a little excited seeing some of the euro runs crank out a nice low for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Sure but you are assuming this is even going to be a cold rain, 50 and rain isn't cold rain. MKE Thursday: Rain likely, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. High near 45. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. And with the warm spring we have had so far that rain will definitely feel "cold" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 MKE Thursday: Rain likely, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. High near 45. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. And with the warm spring we have had so far that rain will definitely feel "cold" Yeah I was more so looking at most of the region, WI and Northern Michigan might be cooler but its a one day thing. Sunday you'll be in the mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I think I'll root for the 00z Euro solution adjusted west. We have been spoiled here pretty much all spring. Could deal with some chilly rain/possible wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Just north of GB gets hit pretty good with snow according to the 12z Euro, but then I remembered the NAM and GFS show barely anything, not even much precip there. Not sure what will happen, but it would be nice if someone in the region (probably the Northwoods of Wisconsin/Minnesota/UP of Michigan) got another snowstorm or at least a light to moderate snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Never had snow on the brain here for this weeks stuff.. just been following the euro and hoping a lot of us get a decent drink like the last round of rains. I'm getting a little nervous this ends up not living up to all the hype here again in the far se part of wi. euro gives us .50"+ but keeps the heavier stuff back to the west and north..time will tell..and maybe things end up a little farther south. Not sure why I polluted this thread with next weeks possible rain, snow or cirrus event for the eastern lakes/ohio valley anyways. Just got a little excited seeing some of the euro runs crank out a nice low for once. I'm thinking the front will settle around the bottom of the lake and the heavier rain will stay in the southern 1/4 of WI and far northern IL. Past experiences with these setups points to it with the front going a little further south then first predicted. Probably hard pressed to make 45° here on Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The 0z NAM is pretty far north, and would indicate some snow in the 0z-6z Friday period NW of Green Bay, similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The 0z NAM is pretty far north, and would indicate some snow in the 0z-6z Friday period NW of Green Bay, similar to the Euro. LOT is predicting the front will hang up around I-80. Which is completely predictable! The latest NAM has some differences from the 18z run; heavier qpf and a sharper cutoff to the south. I think Milwaukee is in a prime spot to see moderate cold rain amounts! Green Bay might see some white stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Euro again advertising snow chances for the eastern Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Euro again advertising snow chances for the eastern Lakes. Yeah it is the only model that even pushes anything West of Montreal at this point, even the GGEM which closed off even earlier in previous runs is now further East. I think Euro might be wrong on this one, especially since it can't lock on one solution and has been wavering for the last couple of days between this solution and something similar to the GFS, which has been locked on the same solution for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Yeah it is the only model that even pushes anything West of Montreal at this point, even the GGEM which closed off even earlier in previous runs is now further East. I think Euro might be wrong on this one, especially since it can't lock on one solution and has been wavering for the last couple of days between this solution and something similar to the GFS, which has been locked on the same solution for days now. I agree. The euro and it's overall eradic behavior with this particular system can't be overlooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 and the gfs is the outlier in the other direction. so prob some sort of comp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 and the gfs is the outlier in the other direction. so prob some sort of comp. NAM/GGEM are much more in line with the GFS although I do agree there might be a compromise. Depends upon when the Southern piece phases with the Northern energy or if it does at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 NAM should never be looked at except within 12 hrs of an event. GGEM - meh model. GFS has been horrible up until it coming around more towards the euro on the recent 18z run and i doubts its done merging towards the euro. Both the euro and GFS have some def honing in work to do and that's to be expected. will be fun to follow for the NE and to see if toronto can't get in to at least some flakes. I wish the laughable previous runs of the GFS would pan out so we can get the warm air in as quick as possible.. I'm getting fed up with this crappy 40's **** after the March tease. Feels like we should be well in to may right now instead we have 1/3 of april yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 NAM/GGEM are much more in line with the GFS although I do agree there might be a compromise. Depends upon when the Southern piece phases with the Northern energy or if it does at all. This one is going to be very interesting to track. If the 12z op Euro/Euro ensemble mean, UKMET and a few of the GFS ensemble members pan out, parts of southern Ontario/western New York state could be looking at a significant late season snow storm Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning (looks like best precip falls overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning). Also, I don't have the exact stats in front of me, but I think YYZ (Toronto Pearson Airport) needs about 5" of snow to avoid setting another record low seasonal snowfall. The record was set back only two years ago (2009-10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 This one is going to be very interesting to track. If the 12z op Euro/Euro ensemble mean, UKMET and a few of the GFS ensemble members pan out, parts of southern Ontario/western New York state could be looking at a significant late season snow storm Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning (looks like best precip falls overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning). Also, I don't have the exact stats in front of me, but I think YYZ (Toronto Pearson Airport) needs about 5" of snow to avoid setting another record low seasonal snowfall. The record was set back only two years ago (2009-10). Oh I am not denying a potential for Toronto and points East. I think you guys are way in the game with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Oh I am not denying a potential for Toronto and points East. I think you guys are way in the game with this one. I agree. And after today's wonderful spring weather (temps in the low to mid 70s), no one here is thinking about winter. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Picked up 0.33" of cold rain today! Today resembled a typical March then anything! Daytime high of 45°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Picked up 0.33" of cold rain today! Today resembled a typical March then anything! Daytime high of 45°. Gotta give today an A+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Gotta give today an A+! I normally don't like cold rain, but it was kinda fun walking in the rain, as well as having a chuckle at the few unfortunate students who chose to wear shorts today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I normally don't like cold rain, but it was kinda fun walking in the rain, as well as having a chuckle at the few unfortunate students who chose to wear shorts today. Haha yeah that is always fun watching the non wx weenies getting pwned my mother nature.. My furthest walk was MC to AMU today thankfully. I lost my umbrella somewhere haven't needed it in ages.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Gotta give today an A+! you must be loving the last 22 days aside from it looks like april won't even get a trace of snow which is probably pretty unusual. 10 of the last 22 days with highs in the 40's To me it should be at least 12 days in the 40's, but this week we've had two lame 12 am high temps in the 60's but the daytime temps we're in the 40's all day to day and all after lunch hr on the 16th. Nothing really to complain about at all but after the warm winter and historic march its easy even for me to lose site of what climo really is... avg high is 55 degrees today Dam down below 40 now while its 73 in Valpo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 We officially have our first observation of snow: Antigo, WI 32/32 light snow. What I wouldn't give to be located NW of Green Bay tonight to observe steady rain changing to snow in mid-late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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