UW-weather Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Two rounds of heavy rain will affect the Midwest over the next few days. A storm system will dive south from Canada overnight and spread rain into the upper Midwest and Great Plains, especially in Minnesota. Up to an inch of rain can be expected. A flood threat does exists in the arrowhead of Minnesota due to the snow storm Sunday night that dumped up to 11". The system will then rapidly continue into Canada and the rain should be down by Wednesday night, then we look ahead to Thursday stronger low pressure. The next storm will come out of the Rockies on Thursday morning, rain will then develop Thursday afternoon. The system will rapidly intensify as it move towards the east and eventually the midwest. Heavy rain will fall across a large area, but up to 2" is possible in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinios. We do need to watch for the chance up snow on the northern side of the storm. If enough cold air can wrap in, an accumulating snow is possible Thursday night. more, including maps, at: http://midwestweathertalk.blogspot.com/ Thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 gon rain x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Thoughts on the end time of the rain on Friday? I need a dry day on Friday in a bad way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 I would say by early afternoon on friday in sheboygan, but its hard to get that specific 3-4days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Well the 18z GFS is the coldest solution I've seen. The 2nd wave on Friday night looks to the best bet for snow in Wisconsin. I think at least the higher terrain in the western part of the state would see some snow and maybe too on the northern fridge as it looks now. If temperatures are 2, 3, 4° too warm on the models as it looks now, there could be a more widespread accumulating snow event. Not unheard of in April. I think this is the last slim chance that anyone south of 45° will see snow until late October. I would expect snow north of a Wisconsin Dells to Manitowoc line. Haven't exactly looked at the Minnesota snow setup, but they already have some snow up there now, so they'll probably end up with some more! Scratch that, I thought they'd be in line for snow again. I don't think that area is that flood prone, could be some I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Not seeing snow on this one at all except maybe a couple locales mixing in a flake or 2 North of 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Not seeing snow on this one at all except maybe a couple locales mixing in a flake or 2 North of 45. DTX mentions snow mixing in a possibility, surprised your talking 45N. I know we need the moisture anyway (well technically we dont need it yet, but alot of other areas are in beginnings of drought), but we have now entered the time of year when precip is nothing but a nuisance imo when it interferes with Tigers/MLB games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Wow, check that gradient out between Milwaukee and South Bend. 30°+/100 miles I noticed the 12z EURO brought the snow much further south. Significant accumulating (for mid-late April) snow from Sparta, WI to Door County. Even brings a dusting to Waukesha back to Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Classic last snowfall of the season sort of thermal profiles. Might get some wet snow stuck to car roofs and such briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 DTX mentions snow mixing in a possibility, surprised your talking 45N. I know we need the moisture anyway (well technically we dont need it yet, but alot of other areas are in beginnings of drought), but we have now entered the time of year when precip is nothing but a nuisance imo when it interferes with Tigers/MLB games. I don't know what model they are looking at but I am not seeing it except the GGEM and tonight's run backed way off on the phasing, which it was overdoing to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I don't know what model they are looking at but I am not seeing it except the GGEM and tonight's run backed way off on the phasing, which it was overdoing to begin with. Dude a number of the ensembles ( atleast in euros case ) are showing the threat and all the way down towards the OH river/Central Apps at that in a few cases. And yes even during the day. Granted i doubt there would be much sticking during the day. Things is they stall this thing near us keeping the precip etc going strong all the way into Wednesday. Yes more of them now close this thing off in our region which also locks in the colder air as well. It was a decent shift per the ensembles anyways. So the threat is there for a bit of snow. NOT saying it will happen either. Still more then enough time for more changes. All knows my opinion of models beyond 72hrs so yeah i'll wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Yawn. 40s and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Pretty sure Stebo was referring to this week only and not the fantasy land stuff. Next week has been interesting for sure on the euro..Not sure about other models. Probably should be looking at the GFS more as the Euro hasn't been up to its normal standards IMO.. Could be a nice drought buster for the NE and as Harry appointed to above, a bit of snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Pretty sure Stebo was referring to this week only and not the fantasy land stuff. Next week has been interesting for sure on the euro..Not sure about other models. Probably should be looking at the GFS more as the Euro hasn't been up to its normal standards IMO.. Could be a nice drought buster for the NE and as Harry appointed to above, a bit of snow on the backside. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 First wave looks to put down some snow from MPX to the northern 1/3 of GRB, MQT. Going to be a lot of cold rain out there, can't argue that. Classic spring temperature gradient over Lake Michigan area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Dude a number of the ensembles ( atleast in euros case ) are showing the threat and all the way down towards the OH river/Central Apps at that in a few cases. And yes even during the day. Granted i doubt there would be much sticking during the day. Things is they stall this thing near us keeping the precip etc going strong all the way into Wednesday. Yes more of them now close this thing off in our region which also locks in the colder air as well. It was a decent shift per the ensembles anyways. So the threat is there for a bit of snow. NOT saying it will happen either. Still more then enough time for more changes. All knows my opinion of models beyond 72hrs so yeah i'll wait and see. Back that thing west I say. I think it would tie for the latest I've seen flakes in LAF. Looks like at least parts of OH/KY would get decent snow by late season standards on the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Pretty sure Stebo was referring to this week only and not the fantasy land stuff. Next week has been interesting for sure on the euro..Not sure about other models. Probably should be looking at the GFS more as the Euro hasn't been up to its normal standards IMO.. Could be a nice drought buster for the NE and as Harry appointed to above, a bit of snow on the backside. Actually I was referring to both this and early next week's system. A couple of the ensembles could show snow, I don't buy it unless you live in Eastern Ontario. None of the OP models show snow for anything but Eastern Ontario and even then it is marginal at best considering the 850mb temps just aren't cold enough. This isn't the time of year to look at to 0C line and think snow, more likely to look at the -6C line at 850mb before thinking about any snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Actually I was referring to both this and early next week's system. A couple of the ensembles could show snow, I don't buy it unless you live in Eastern Ontario. None of the OP models show snow for anything but Eastern Ontario and even then it is marginal at best considering the 850mb temps just aren't cold enough. This isn't the time of year to look at to 0C line and think snow, more likely to look at the -6C line at 850mb before thinking about any snow chances Agree that looking for 0C at 850 mb usually won't work this time of year, but the 0z Euro had a pocket of 850 mb temps around -4C in OH/KY with 2m temps in the 30's. That would probably be enough for snow at night or in heavier bursts imo. This may all be irrelevant though as the 12z run has it farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Agree that looking for 0C at 850 mb usually won't work this time of year, but the 0z Euro had a pocket of 850 mb temps around -4C in OH/KY with 2m temps in the 30's. That would probably be enough for snow at night or in heavier bursts imo. This may all be irrelevant though as the 12z run has it farther east. Yeah I think I should amend my comment to stuff that would stick or be appreciable, flakes in the air isn't anything to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 well snow chances for this week came to an end days ago in our parts so not sure why its even being talked about. flakes in the air where the euro had them would sure be exciting if you love snow I would assume, especially considering how hard snow has been to come by this past winter. Fact snow>cold rain anytime of the yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 well snow chances for this week came to an end days ago in our parts so not sure why its even being talked about. flakes in the air where the euro had them would sure be exciting if you love snow I would assume, especially considering how hard snow has been to come by this past winter. Fact snow>cold rain anytime of the yr Flakes in the air are boring, cold rain sucks too but lets be honest if snow isn't accumulating it isn't exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Flakes in the air are boring, cold rain sucks too but lets be honest if snow isn't accumulating it isn't exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 well snow chances for this week came to an end days ago in our parts so not sure why its even being talked about. flakes in the air where the euro had them would sure be exciting if you love snow I would assume, especially considering how hard snow has been to come by this past winter. Fact snow>cold rain anytime of the yr The EURO was still showing snow from Sparta, WI to Sturgeon Bay. And about 2-5" at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Flakes in the air are boring, cold rain sucks too but lets be honest if snow isn't accumulating it isn't exciting. The next time any - especially late April snow isn't exciting to me will be after I take my last breath on earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The EURO was still showing snow from Sparta, WI to Sturgeon Bay. And about 2-5" at that! Yeah but for US south the pipe dream for pretty much any snow has been cooked for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The next time any - especially late April snow isn't exciting to me will be after I take my last breath on earth. That's fine that you enjoy mood flakes, I don't. I have no use for flakes that amount to T in the climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 what use do you have for cold rain over snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 what use do you have for cold rain over snow. Accumulating snow>cold rain>mood flakes Reasoning is at least cold rain adds to the soil moisture, mood flakes means precip rates are lousy and you aren't adding much to the soil moisture. Considering I don't want a drought this summer, I will take all the cold rain I can get since this doesn't look like accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Accumulating snow>cold rain>mood flakes Reasoning is at least cold rain adds to the soil moisture, mood flakes means precip rates are lousy and you aren't adding much to the soil moisture. Considering I don't want a drought this summer, I will take all the cold rain I can get since this doesn't look like accumulating snow. I'll agree with that and take the cold rain. I really dislike droughts! Too bad there isn't any short mountains in the area... I'm sure there would be snow on them Friday morning! I don't think we have any members up by Green Bay... but they seems to have the best shot at snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 never knew melting snow didn't add to soil moisture. 12z euro brings no precip in to semi anyways.. Wish this baby could end up wound up even further west than last nights euro. def potential in the sweet spot for more than just mood flakes if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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