MGorse Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Mike, If we do get a widespread 2-3 locally 5" type event to verify, you guys worried about flash flooding? With the ground being incredibly dry and rock hard, you'd almost have to see more runoff than if the ground water table was closer to normal. And in other news, my call of this being a more progressive system = BUST! Lol. No plans of quitting my day job. We had a staff meeting a short time ago with our hydrologist. We will be issuing our thoughts this afternoon in the AFD as we still need to review all of the 12z guidance. But, it looks like if 2 inches or more of rain falls then some local flooding will probably start to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 75 knot winds just offshore. (850 mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z gfs and euro is 1-1.5 inches for the region.. ggem looks to be around 2-3...18z nam is 2-4.5...srefs are 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 18z NAM insistent on a qpf bullseye over SE Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 18z NAM insistent on a qpf bullseye over SE Pa Between 51-63 hrs, it pummels us! Also, a Witt he fropa on sat, it develops a meso low which enhances rainfall rates (you can see it at Hr 27-33). A little suspect attm, but a def possibility.I'm still hoping for some decent thunderstorms sat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I wouldn't be surpised to hear a few reports of snow in PA as the storm wraps up north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 18z Hi res NAM through 60. I'll take that bullseye over SJ, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 waiting for someone to say NAM's overdoing QPF again... seriously....this could be a problem - NAM is wrong. Suspect 1- max 3 in most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 SREF Mean just in. All of new jersey and extreme east pa 2.50-3 inches now. It basicly went more wide spready with heavy rain fall. Very Impressive for a mean spread usually the mean of the sref is slightly drier then operational models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 NAM is wrong. Suspect 1- max 3 in most locations. Reasons? Being the NAM isn't the only model showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Given how much of a spread there is between the EC/GFS (which are almost locked in agreement) and the NAM, I'd be very skeptical of the NAM pushing for 4"+ of rain over that much of NJ. SREF mean is 3-4...that might be a more realistic "top end" potential. I also wouldn't be surprised if places west of 95 didn't even get an inch of rain from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 What's really interesting is that the NAM and some SREF members keep showing snow showers Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Starting to get the impression this is an east storm, like boxer day storm minus the temps... Damn, if we only get sprinkles, my grass and trees will be very disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 6z and 12z NAM both bring the low into central PA, with the axis of heaviest rain over eastern and central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I can't wait until Monday morning to wake up to a blanket of white in Berks county...I mean wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I can't wait until Monday morning to wake up to a blanket of white in Berks county...I mean wet here as well, unless the low stays offshore. maybe some wrap-around, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Per radar, the initial cold front is making painfully slow progress east. Precip still west of Pittsburgh. Maybe after dark until any rain gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Hopefully we can score some boomers today. 81°F out here but the dewpoint is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 here as well, unless the low stays offshore. maybe some wrap-around, but that's it. Yeah, not looking to good for us here in the Poconos. Maybe some scattered snow showers as it lifts well north and west of us. If only this tracked another 100 miles east lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 The euro 12z run has come in stronger and wetter with the low also turns it west into Trenton and north jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 315 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 DEZ001-NJZ008>010-012-015-PAZ067>071-221000- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0001.120422T1200Z-120423T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CHESTER- MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 315 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NEW JERSEY...HUNTERDON... MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS AND SOMERSET. IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...BUCKS...CHESTER...DELAWARE...MONTGOMERY AND PHILADELPHIA. * FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT * HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2.0 TO 3.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE DRY DRY LATELY...THIS MUCH RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF QUICK RESPONDING STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS...SUCH AS THOSE IN NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IN ADDITION...URBAN FLOODING FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. * AT THIS TIME...MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF MORE THAN 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN FALLS IN THE PASSAIC BASIN...MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING BECOMES POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ HAYES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Gettin its act together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Pic of an evolution of a storm. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Heaviest of the heavy rainfall with this storm is still over SNE on the GFS and EC...however, wider area of 2" rains for the region on both models. Pretty safe call to go 1.5-3" for most spots, maybe a touch more along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Heaviest of the heavy rainfall with this storm is still over SNE on the GFS and EC...however, wider area of 2" rains for the region on both models. Pretty safe call to go 1.5-3" for most spots, maybe a touch more along the coast. Still flip flopping galore going on. NAM = further south and west into PA...while ECM practically goes up to NY state , ignoring the strong high pressure it's running into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Still flip flopping galore going on. NAM = further south and west into PA...while ECM practically goes up to NY state , ignoring the strong high pressure it's running into. A Tobyhanna special. Just read this in the afternoon AFD... THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW ABOVE 1000 FEET...AND PLACES LIKE TOBYHANNA COULD SEE 2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 It's about time we had some rain around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 A Tobyhanna special. Just read this in the afternoon AFD... THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW ABOVE 1000 FEET...AND PLACES LIKE TOBYHANNA COULD SEE 2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY. Getting a little too close for comfort for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 A Tobyhanna special. Just read this in the afternoon AFD... THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW ABOVE 1000 FEET...AND PLACES LIKE TOBYHANNA COULD SEE 2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY. noice. 2"-3" in late april, just from wrap-around ? sounds like a gamble. Anything over an inch would surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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