Grothar Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Thats why I started this thread early. Wait until these guys see this in the morning-- sh** will hit the fan and we maybe in storm mode by the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Every model (Except the sref mean and soon to come it canadain) now showing a monster of it's own if the GFS is right it would be bigger then the march 2010 storm. Start to look more and more like a fun weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Mike2010, They certainly did! If that verifies, I may have to make a trip to the Tobyhanna Airport on Sunday night to check out the fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Wow, the 0Z GFS is impressive.Would be nice if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 GFS just looks crappy for most of next week...we were living on borrowed time for nice weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 GFS just looks crappy for most of next week...we were living on borrowed time for nice weather lol Almost 6 months since the October storm /last nor Easter.. And here I thought the last 2 winters we would get them every other week... L ohhhh ellll! On a more serious note, 0z GFS was way inland and dropped a 5" maxima near eastern pa/Allentown. 6z GFS is more in line with the euro. Either way, props to the euro for sticking with the big storm idea. 0z gfs was a 977mb low over the mason Dixon line, whereas the euro was a 990-994mb storm... 6z GFS is roughly 988ish when it gets near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 And if this was Jan, this thread would have been maxed 4x's already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Mike2010, They certainly did! If that verifies, I may have to make a trip to the Tobyhanna Airport on Sunday night to check out the fun.... Things are looking better regarding more widespread QPF. Let's see what the 12z guidance has to offer. The ECMWF has been showing a snow potential for the higher terrain for awhile now, at least on several runs. Took a quick glance back at the 00z GFS soundings for the Mount Pocono area and it appears any snow would occur mostly from about 8 PM Monday on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The ECMWF has been showing a snow potential for the higher terrain for awhile now, at least on several runs. By higher terrain, what's your best guess on what elevation cutoff for the snow if it were to happen? 1,000ft, 1,500 ft, 2,000ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 By higher terrain, what's your best guess on what elevation cutoff for the snow if it were to happen? 1,000ft, 1,500 ft, 2,000ft? As of now based on looking at some soundings, probably 1,200 feet, if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Much needed rain. Can't wait to see the grill pic's. Mike should actually have us over to witness it in person . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 As of now based on looking at some soundings, probably 1,200 feet, if it were to happen. Thanks Mike. That would put locations just a few miles from me into the snow, and make my work night on Monday interesting if it were to verify as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Thanks Mike. That would put locations just a few miles from me into the snow, and make my work night on Monday interesting if it were to verify as such. No problem. The details with this system are still not easy. At least the area will get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 After a couple of days of waffling (non-Euro) - nice consensus on much needed heavy rain. Strong signal on 06 GEFS - 3+ in many members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 GFS just looks crappy for most of next week...we were living on borrowed time for nice weather lol Bring it on.......I will welcome a week of rain and temps in the low 50's. We need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 GFS just looks crappy for most of next week...we were living on borrowed time for nice weather lol Great blog update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Much needed rain. Can't wait to see the grill pic's. Mike should actually have us over to witness it in person . Mike2010, They certainly did! If that verifies, I may have to make a trip to the Tobyhanna Airport on Sunday night to check out the fun.... hehe, still have some of that home brew in the fridge. better news : I signed up with ChaserTv a couple days ago. Might have the feed up before that event even starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 6z gfs ens mean members for total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 We certainly can use the rain. Guess I'll have to crank up the mower again later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 We certainly can use the rain. Guess I'll have to crank up the mower again later next week. After the rain, let's see what grows faster the grass or the weeds. The weeds certainly have a head start so far (unless your lawn is weed-free). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 JBs latest map - he has certainly been beating this drum for the last 10 days. If it verifies nice call from a distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 JBs latest map - he has certainly been beating this drum for the last 10 days. If it verifies nice call from a distance Gotta realize though, he over-hypes almost all events. Obviously, when you hype most events, some will eventually be right. The ones he's wrong about almost never get any attention. EDIT: with that being said, it was still a decent early call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 JBs latest map - he has certainly been beating this drum for the last 10 days. If it verifies nice call from a distance Quite an unusual track. Wonder if we can get the barometer into the 28's as the center heads over us before recurving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Not buying this at all, but it's rare to see a model showing snow almost to DC in late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Wow at the 12z NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 wow... NAM is going crazy with QPF again. (12z) EDIT - ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z NAM fits well with JB's graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 waiting for someone to say NAM's overdoing QPF again... seriously....this could be a problem - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The NAM is NOT what the shore points want to see a month from Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Wow at the 12z NAM! Mike, If we do get a widespread 2-3 locally 5" type event to verify, you guys worried about flash flooding? With the ground being incredibly dry and rock hard, you'd almost have to see more runoff than if the ground water table was closer to normal. And in other news, my call of this being a more progressive system = BUST! Lol. No plans of quitting my day job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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