Grothar Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I created this topic because I feel that we have been dry (Please notice I did not say drought in this post) for so long, that even a 1-3 inch rainfall and maybe even snowfall event will be discussed as if it was a classic Miller A or B running up the coast in the winter. While many posters in other forums are saying that we will be pounded by this storm event by the current models, seeing is believing. I must say that this storm event is unfolding that is eerily similar to the Nor'easter event in 2007. Thanks http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2007_nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 March 21-23 was dry imby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 march was adam torch month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 I created this topic because I feel that we have been dry (Please notice I did not say drought in this post) for so long, that even a 1-3 inch rainfall and maybe even snowfall event will be discussed as if it was a classic Miller A or B running up the coast in the winter. While many posters in other forums are saying that we will be pounded by this storm event by the current models, seeing is believing. I must say that this storm event is unfolding that is eerily similar to the Nor'easter event in 2007. Thanks http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2007_nor'easter My bad --sorry guys should have been 4/21-4/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 NAM looks dryer, slower... GFS looks slower, still decent amounts of rain sunday/monday. A much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 EC brings the low wrapped up inland...real good soaker if it verifies. We were down this road a month ago and the storm fizzled badly as the models trended closer. Fingers crossed reality is different this time around. All I ask is the weather is nice Saturday and Tuesday...I have a golf outing to help run on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 EC brings the low wrapped up inland...real good soaker if it verifies. We were down this road a month ago and the storm fizzled badly as the models trended closer. Fingers crossed reality is different this time around. All I ask is the weather is nice Saturday and Tuesday...I have a golf outing to help run on Tuesday. I'm guessing it phased the 2 streams? I know the 12z ensembles weren't soo enthused about doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Hope this holds. Area could use a nice soaking, yes even me now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I'm guessing it phased the 2 streams? I know the 12z ensembles weren't soo enthused about doing so. HPC from earlier this morning... THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LARGER ISSUES...AS IT BECOMES THE DEEPEST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...WHICH THEN TAKES OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. THIS IS A VERY ATYPICAL/UNCLIMATOLOGICAL PATH WITH VIRTUALLY NO 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...AND THE ECMWF STILL HAS THE OCCASIONAL WESTWARD BIAS BEYOND 120 HOURS/FIVE DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The Delaware is really low this spring, the lack of snow melt and very dry conditions is very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 While the euro has shown every possible solution last few days and the GFS showing a big storm run after run. The Nam looks drier and as if it would go ots something to keep in mind as the nam nailed that storm a month ago that under performed by the models. It was never impressive with that storm and so far it might not be with this system. Personally I would like to see the euro canadain or GFS pan out since we need the rain if we miss the chance this go around. We might have to wait a while before another chance at a multiple inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 This looks promising, and would definitely help the rather dry conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 wash down the pollen would be a big plus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 FYI: HPC: THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LARGER ISSUES...AS IT BECOMES THE DEEPEST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...WHICH THEN TAKES OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. THIS IS A VERY ATYPICAL/UNCLIMATOLOGICAL PATH WITH VIRTUALLY NO12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...AND THE ECMWF STILL HAS THE OCCASIONAL WESTWARD BIAS BEYOND 120 HOURS/FIVE DAYS. THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 6-10" of rain? or is that snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 6-10" of rain? or is that snow? That is rain. We chatted with them and that was not correct. They updated the discussion and changed the local 6-10 to 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Slight differences between the euro and 18z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Looking over the 0z nam, I was checking out what type of any severe threat we have. I-95 does manage too get warm sectored Saturday with prime time frontal passage. 18-0z. Just throwing it out that the threat is there. We'll see how it plays out the next couple days.. Bt if we get warm sectored, the nam has us getting some cape, decent mid level lapse rates, and some decent h5 vertical velocities. I will say, the higher or lower the threat goes for thunderstorm activity, so goes opposite the affects of a nor'easter. Why you ask? Comes down to the barclonic zone placement. Stronger frontal passage, the more the zone gets pushed off shore. Lots of players on the field . How fast/strong the northern stream.. Yada yada... Forecasting nightmare if you ask me. If you asked me my gut feeling, id say quciker frontal passage /less digging of the northern stream. Might be too late for us down here. Seasonal trend FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 GFS says whatever we get we get on Saturday...Euro still brings the slug of rain up the coast but mainly offshore. I'm buying the progressive push more than the held back look...even if the Euro were right it is more glancing blow than inches of rain for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Looking over the 0z nam, I was checking out what type of any severe threat we have. I-95 does manage too get warm sectored Saturday with prime time frontal passage. 18-0z. Just throwing it out that the threat is there. We'll see how it plays out the next couple days.. Bt if we get warm sectored, the nam has us getting some cape, decent mid level lapse rates, and some decent h5 vertical velocities. I will say, the higher or lower the threat goes for thunderstorm activity, so goes opposite the affects of a nor'easter. Why you ask? Comes down to the barclonic zone placement. Stronger frontal passage, the more the zone gets pushed off shore. Lots of players on the field . How fast/strong the northern stream.. Yada yada... Forecasting nightmare if you ask me. If you asked me my gut feeling, id say quciker frontal passage /less digging of the northern stream. Might be too late for us down here. Seasonal trend FTW... Agree here all the way. Nice writeup! Progressive weather pattern prevails as it has for the last 6 mos+. When is the last time we had cyclogenesis off the mid Atlantic coast that brought any precip to the area? I can't even remember. It's always OTS or a lakes cutter that transfers at higher latitudes to our north. Not to mention the frontal passage showers that show up on the models always seem to not materialize as we get closer as well. I don't care what it is as long as we get some type of substantial rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 0z Euro 0z GFS Can we say LOLZ? Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Not liking where many of the models are going with the weekend rain threat. The front stalling well offshore will end up taking the rain axis to our east. At least we will get showers and storms with the front later Saturday. Still early about the weekend storm, so hopefully this comes westward at least some. Any rain now will be better than nothing. Onto the 12z guidance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS came back west ever so slightly still mainly A miss but could be the start of a correction if there was to be one. lets see what the other models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 the 12z euro is 1-75-2.5 for the area. with the 2-2.5 from del river east, and 1.75-2 from susquehanna east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 euro lock n load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I, for one would be happy with a simple frontal passage (a la GFS/Canadian) that drops 0.25-0.75" of rain. No need for days of crap weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I, for one would be happy with a simple frontal passage (a la GFS/Canadian) that drops 0.25-0.75" of rain. No need for days of crap weather. if the spring up to this point was crappy i would agree. Since this spring and late winter has featured phenominal weather, i can take crappy weather for much needed rain for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 What does the storm threat look like? Any severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What does the storm threat look like? Any severe? satueday with the front passage may have some convection. But with the coastal we will be on the cold side, so more of a steady rain. SNE, is in the warm sector and could see some severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Things just got interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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