RodneyS Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I have added a summer (June, July, August) column and a yearly column to the above, as well as rows showing the summer and yearly averages in those 10 years and in all years, 1871-2011. So, on average, summer precipitation in those ten years has been 1.14 inches above the long-term summer average, but with the yearly average for those ten years 3.7 inches below the long-term yearly average. One more note on this: Precipitation for the ten lowest years in DC during January through April has averaged 7.49 inches, versus an average of 12.60 inches during those four months, 1871-2011. So, there was an average precipitation deficit during those years in the first four months of 5.11 inches. Therefore, with a corresponding yearly deficit of 3.7 inches, there was a precipitation surplus over the final eight months for those years of 1.41 inches, of which 1.14 inches came during June, July, and August. So, on average, when there has been an exceptionally dry January through April in DC, a portion of the precipitation deficit has been made up during the summer, with the other five months of the year featuring nearly average precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 YTD at DCA: 5.75" of precip These are the 10 lowest Jan-Apr totals on record. 1872 6.28 1977 6.99 1969 7.08 1985 7.09 1981 7.32 1946 7.80 1942 7.87 1967 7.96 1968 7.96 1947 8.58 Interesting that 2002 is absent from that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 One more note on this: Precipitation for the ten lowest years in DC during January through April has averaged 7.49 inches, versus an average of 12.60 inches during those four months, 1871-2011. So, there was an average precipitation deficit during those years in the first four months of 5.11 inches. Therefore, with a corresponding yearly deficit of 3.7 inches, there was a precipitation surplus over the final eight months for those years of 1.41 inches, of which 1.14 inches came during June, July, and August. So, on average, when there has been an exceptionally dry January through April in DC, a portion of the precipitation deficit has been made up during the summer, with the other five months of the year featuring nearly average precipitation. Awesome Rodney. Thanks a lot for that data. Gives me hope for green grass in July and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Interesting that 2002 is absent from that list. 2002 just missed the bottom ten with 8.63 inches at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Bust bust bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 This is from CPC regarding the Low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The pendulum swings...now the GFS gives us a very rainy Sunday and the NAM, even moreso. In fact, the NAM mixes in some white stuff for Frederick County late in the storm. I'm supposed to run 26 kilometers Sunday morning...squish, squish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 GFS tattoos us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 2" on the 6z NAM. 1.8 on the 06z GFS. Anyone have the 00z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Severe threat tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Severe threat tomorrow? Some isolated stuff possible... saw the SPC gave us a 5% this morning. I think there's still a low tornado threat in southeast VA and Delmarva where you have some enhanced low-level rotation, even if the overall shear and instability are fairly low overall. The safer bet will be stuff along the cold front, but a few discrete cells are possible ahead of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 2" on the 6z NAM. 1.8 on the 06z GFS. Anyone have the 00z Euro? Gimme 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Some isolated stuff possible... saw the SPC gave us a 5% this morning. I think there's still a low tornado threat in southeast VA and Delmarva where you have some enhanced low-level rotation, even if the overall shear and instability are fairly low overall. The safer bet will be stuff along the cold front, but a few discrete cells are possible ahead of the front Well it's great that I will be in Salisbury then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 2" on the 6z NAM. 1.8 on the 06z GFS. Anyone have the 00z Euro? ~2" through 8pm Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 ~2" through 8pm Tuesday. Nice agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Well it's great that I will be in Salisbury then Lucky you. Jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Lucky you. Jealous. I'll take pics of my tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 If only it was January.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 If only it was January.. That sounds like a Redskins fans, if only it was next season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I'll take pics of my tornado lol... I'd be surprised if the SPC gave Delmarva a 2% tornado risk tomorrow Much better chances of there being zero tornadoes than not-zero. That being said, if it looks like things are improving tomorrow I'll likely head out to southeast VA for some chasing. As of right now I'm still on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 lol... I'd be surprised if the SPC gave Delmarva a 2% tornado risk tomorrow Much better chances of there being zero tornadoes than not-zero. That being said, if it looks like things are improving tomorrow I'll likely head out to southeast VA for some chasing. As of right now I'm still on the fence. Keep me posted. I'll check the board when I can, twitter works though. We have a party to go tomorrow afternoon outside, so don't wanna get caught in something bad should it pop up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 That sounds like a Redskins fans, if only it was next season We all have our hopes and dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Congrats western md http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Congrats western md http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_NE084.gif That's just not right if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I'll take pics of my tornado If it did happen my bet is that it will be chicken wrapped and hard to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Around 3" Total QPF for DCA/BWI on the NAM. Just raw on Sun/Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM High Saturday: 82 High Monday: 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 If that snow verifies, trees down..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM High Saturday: 82 High Monday: 45 Ouch, that would blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 1.5" to 2" rain on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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