Deck Pic Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Bust It doesnt rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The CAPE has improved a little ahead of the cold front (mostly 1000-1500 J/kg, with some pockets of 1500-2000 J/kg), but the winds have become more unidirectional in the low to mid levels and the LCLs look to be a bit higher than I'd like. Could squeeze out some wind/hail reports out of this, and the latest model runs indicate only a low chance for tornadoes on Delmarva. I'm holding out hope for a chase on Saturday, but we'll have to see what these winds end up doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I hope its a total bust. We're in the running for driest April ever. The last thing I need is some stupid half-inch rainstrom screwing it up at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I hope its a total bust. We're in the running for driest April ever. The last thing I need is some stupid half-inch rainstrom screwing it up at the end. Drought records are one of the very few extreme events I would say no to, even though it doesn't affect me personally much in the end. I wouldn't mind a driest month record if we weren't already in drought conditions, but there's no reason to make the bad worse. It looks like most areas could expect around a half inch of rain this weekend, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I like locally grown corn and having my own tomato and pepper garden so I hope we get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I like locally grown corn and having my own tomato and pepper garden so I hope we get some rain. Same here, Wes. But my tee time on Saturday has me wanting the rain to hold off until Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Will be a shame if the storm doesnt pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Will be a shame if the storm doesnt pan out I'd rather my golf on sunday not be soggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 What is the latest Euro showing for this? I can't access those maps here at work. Also, does anyone know why on the Wundermap site, several of the things listed at the right have a strike through over them, including the one labeled models? Is this a computer setting that I can change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 What is the latest Euro showing for this? I can't access those maps here at work. Also, does anyone know why on the Wundermap site, several of the things listed at the right have a strike through over them, including the one labeled models? Is this a computer setting that I can change? euro still had like 1"+ i95 and east.. a little less particularly west than prior runs. in this situation i might be tempted to believe the GFS scenario tho it looks like it brings the coastal precip in a little closer this past run. however we suck at getting a phase right to get good precip so i'd lean toward the lighter end. why anyone was talking about widespread 'drought busting' rains is beyond me tho. perhaps im wrong but i don't really believe in heavy rain with a frontal passage and i think we're going to need help with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 euro still had like 1"+ i95 and east.. a little less particularly west than prior runs. in this situation i might be tempted to believe the GFS scenario tho it looks like it brings the coastal precip in a little closer this past run. however we suck at getting a phase right to get good precip so i'd lean toward the lighter end. why anyone was talking about widespread 'drought busting' rains is beyond me tho. perhaps im wrong but i don't really believe in heavy rain with a frontal passage and i think we're going to need help with the coastal. Agreed... also, to add on, we'd probably need a couple 2-3" rain events to alleviate our drought, maybe more on Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 euro still had like 1"+ i95 and east.. a little less particularly west than prior runs. in this situation i might be tempted to believe the GFS scenario tho it looks like it brings the coastal precip in a little closer this past run. however we suck at getting a phase right to get good precip so i'd lean toward the lighter end. why anyone was talking about widespread 'drought busting' rains is beyond me tho. perhaps im wrong but i don't really believe in heavy rain with a frontal passage and i think we're going to need help with the coastal. Most of the drought busting comments are probably based on the runs from a couple of days ago that had the low running up the coastal plan or even further inland. Now it looks quite mundane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Most of the drought busting comments are probably based on the runs from a couple of days ago that had the low running up the coastal plan or even further inland. Now it looks quite mundane. yeah probably.. and i guess i was specifically thinking of local JB -- as recently as yesterday -- talking about widespread 3"+ amounts across the area. the models are generally iffy with stream interactions that become high qpf events, and of course we've seen that play out a number of times over winter etc. it pays to remain skeptical in these situations i think... and re: mark, yeah, could be we need a few rains. though at least in this area we can 'bust' it fairly quick maybe not as much so to the east. personally i hope we lock into an east coast ridge pattern with a west coast trough in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Looks like I picked a great weekend to be on the lower eastern shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 YTD at DCA: 5.75" of precip These are the 10 lowest Jan-Apr totals on record. 1872 6.28 1977 6.99 1969 7.08 1985 7.09 1981 7.32 1946 7.80 1942 7.87 1967 7.96 1968 7.96 1947 8.58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 YTD at DCA: 5.75" of precip These are the 10 lowest Jan-Apr totals on record. 1872 6.28 1977 6.99 1969 7.08 1985 7.09 1981 7.32 1946 7.80 1942 7.87 1967 7.96 1968 7.96 1947 8.58 What were the summers like that followed those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 What were the summers like that followed those? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 the euro got considerably wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 What were the summers like that followed those? The correct question should have been what were the winters like that followed those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Most of the drought busting comments are probably based on the runs from a couple of days ago that had the low running up the coastal plan or even further inland. Now it looks quite mundane. it's only been around 15 months since I've seen a qpf map that looks like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 the euro got considerably wetter. I noticed that its 500 and sfc looked better but no longer can get qpf from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 http://www.esrl.noaa...ata/usclimdivs/ Thanks. I just didn't have time to do that here. I thought someone might already have looked at that data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The correct question should have been what were the winters like that followed those? I wanted to do it, but just didn't have the nerve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I noticed that its 500 and sfc looked better but no longer can get qpf from it. 1"+ across the whole area back into WV.. Probably more like 1.5"+ dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 1"+ across the whole area back into WV.. Probably more like 1.5"+ dc Hope it's right. it is getting into the period when it does pretty good. I wonder whether its ensemble mean will like it. Its forecast suggest to keep and open mind about Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 1"+ across the whole area back into WV.. Probably more like 1.5"+ dc Quite a capture on the freebie maps. How much snow up in western NY? edit - LOL at the 500 track. NW of Tampa to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Soooo I'm gonna need a boat to get back to Baltimore county on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Hope it's right. it is getting into the period when it does pretty good. I wonder whether its ensemble mean will like it. Its forecast suggest to keep and open mind about Sunday. Ensemble mean has about 1.25" of precip for DC. The low is a bit more east then the euro at your location but curls back into and thru NYC later on. The spread has decreased because the low looks more consolidated then previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 YTD at DCA: 5.75" of precip These are the 10 lowest Jan-Apr totals on record. 1872 6.28 10.52 32.22 1977 6.99 12.08 36.14 1969 7.08 19.88 43.30 1985 7.09 7.31 35.86 1981 7.32 11.26 30.67 1946 7.80 10.29 33.62 1942 7.87 19.65 48.02 1967 7.96 15.92 38.15 1968 7.96 12.66 36.83 1947 8.58 12.14 36.65 10-Year Average 13.17 37.15 1871-2011 Average 12.03 40.85 I have added a summer (June, July, August) column and a yearly column to the above, as well as rows showing the summer and yearly averages in those 10 years and in all years, 1871-2011. So, on average, summer precipitation in those ten years has been 1.14 inches above the long-term summer average, but with the yearly average for those ten years 3.7 inches below the long-term yearly average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Ensemble mean has about 1.25" of precip for DC. The low is a bit more east then the euro at your location but curls back into and thru NYC later on. The spread has decreased because the low looks more consolidated then previous runs. Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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