Herb@MAWS Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Modeling coming into better agreement for Gulfmex LP to come NE-ward into the mid-Atlantic, with colder air aloft filtering in from HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I hope there is massive flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 God our weather's boring. Holding out hope for some strong/severe storms on Saturday, but the wind speed shear is sad. Decent/good directional shear (depending on where you are) if we can get the low-mid levels to go up 20-30+ kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 God our weather's boring. Holding out hope for some strong/severe storms on Saturday, but the wind speed shear is sad. Decent/good directional shear (depending on where you are) if we can get the low-mid levels to go up 20-30+ kts. Still plenty of time to trend more favorable. Although we like to fail at severe in the DC area so I'm not holding my breath. Would be nice to get some excitement to break this boring period though. What do you think the odds are at trending it more favorable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Just realized we are coming up on the 10th anniversary of the La Plata Tornado of 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 It would be nice to get a good soaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Still plenty of time to trend more favorable. Although we like to fail at severe in the DC area so I'm not holding my breath. Would be nice to get some excitement to break this boring period though. What do you think the odds are at trending it more favorable? I'm in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode right now... don't see much improvement, at least for Saturday. Latest GFS run indicates some potential on Sunday as well. Sunday might be the better day due to the stronger wind shear, but instability is an issue for both days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I hope we get soaked............I'm not at all a fan of droughts and we're getting into one. Just realized we are coming up on the 10th anniversary of the La Plata Tornado of 2002. That's the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I hope we get soaked............I'm not at all a fan of droughts and we're getting into one. That's the 28th droughts bring unrelenting summer heatwaves. hopefully we nip this in the bud soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I hope we get soaked............I'm not at all a fan of droughts and we're getting into one. That's the 28th Indeed - That was a scary day for me as a younger person than I am now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Indeed - That was a scary day for me as a younger person than I am now. It was on my 12th birthday.........that and the severe wx that day made it memorable, though I was still a little scared of being in a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 God our weather's boring. Holding out hope for some strong/severe storms on Saturday, but the wind speed shear is sad. Decent/good directional shear (depending on where you are) if we can get the low-mid levels to go up 20-30+ kts. the heck with severe just some decent rains. digging in the ground out here, while it is clay, it is so dry half a foot down it is like digging thru concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 It was on my 12th birthday.........that and the severe wx that day made it memorable, though I was still a little scared of being in a tornado watch. Yeah I was around the same age - I remember the local mets going insane on TV with that hook echo. Still, College Park Tornado the year before was more memorable just because the storm that produced it almost went right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Severe weather primetime is another 30-45 days out for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Severe weather primetime is another 30-45 days out for DC. Thanks for the info. I hear tell that the Plains' primetime is also 30-45 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 the heck with severe just some decent rains. digging in the ground out here, while it is clay, it is so dry half a foot down it is like digging thru concrete. leaking water lines soften the ground very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Haven't looked at any models, but the HPC QPF maps would indicate that they like the chances for good rains over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Haven't looked at any models, but the HPC QPF maps would indicate that they like the chances for good rains over the next 5 days. The gfs and euro look wet with the euro being the more jazzed up solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 leaking water lines soften the ground very well bite me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The 00z Euro is slower and keeps the track west. We get a nice drenching Sun/Mon and leftover instability on Tuesday. Tuesday is the coolest day. The 12z GFS that has just come in brings precip in on Saturday, drenches us Sunday, but doesn't leave us with much on Monday as the track is out to sea (weenie suicide track if this was winter). The GFS is much chillier on Sun/Mon with temps in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Prolly need another contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Prolly need another contest. Yeah, I'm on a roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 A 2-3 incher this weekend? That would do wonders for the ground right about now and would certainly help clear the air of pollen. Plus, I welcome the cool air. Highs in the 80s/90s need to wait until we're in May. If for no other reason than the fact that my car AC isn't working and I haven't fixed it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Thanks for the info. I hear tell that the Plains' primetime is also 30-45 days away. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 We need rain or else the bank gonna' come take my daddy's farm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 We need rain or else the bank gonna' come take my daddy's farm. HPC says your daddy's farm at 2700' has a good shot of snow weighing it down HPC favors west virginia PA/NY for snow in their long term disco ...(would include west MD above 2.5k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Bust gfs says good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 gfs says good call If this were winter, that run would have prompted a meltdown of the board. Which makes it a believeable run. 6Z is slightly wetter, but still just in the half inch countour up this way (Balt City/County). Not exactly what has been advertised as a two day multiple inch soaking rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Models have settled on a two part storm. Frontal passage Saturday. Low riding up (or off) the coast Sun/Mon. Part 2 does not look promising for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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