RCNYILWX Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Interestingly enough, despite the cap concerns, the 21z SPC mesoanalysis indicates an area of uncapped 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE over central and portions of northeast IL. Some convection recently fired over McClean and Livingston counties, so we'll see if anything comes of it given this and the strong shear profiles. So far, looks like it's gotten a bit better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Interestingly enough, despite the cap concerns, the 21z SPC mesoanalysis indicates an area of uncapped 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE over central and portions of northeast IL. Some convection recently fired over McClean and Livingston counties, so we'll see if anything comes of it given this and the strong shear profiles. So far, looks like it's gotten a bit better organized. been watching that, might scrape the southern end of the city if it continues to build Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Interestingly enough, despite the cap concerns, the 21z SPC mesoanalysis indicates an area of uncapped 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE over central and portions of northeast IL. Some convection recently fired over McClean and Livingston counties, so we'll see if anything comes of it given this and the strong shear profiles. So far, looks like it's gotten a bit better organized. Looks like that area has received better heating than the DVN area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Looks like that area has received better heating than the DVN area. I was going to say, we've been partial to full sun pretty much all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Tornado warning between Fairfax and Buffalo Lake MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Nice little string of cells getting together SSW of MSP...could have multiple players into the metro area in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Cap has finally unzipped in S Central TX... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 515 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN GOLIAD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A PAIR OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHARCO TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERCLAIR...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOLIAD TO 16 MILES NORTH OF BEEVILLE. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BERCLAIR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I think the cold front is coming into western Iowa, with a mini-dryline, with dew points 59, 45, 25, and 38 west of Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Competition between cells is certainly a concern, but these storms are moving into an excellent environment in north-central IA. I'd be hanging south by Fort Dodge waiting for one that looks like it'll dominate the line, or at least one with a bigger break to its south than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 523 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA... EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 520 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR BROWNTON...OR OVER BROWNTON. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... HUTCHINSON... BROWNTON... BISCAY... SUMTER... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 534 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MCLEOD COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT... AT 529 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR BISCAY. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BISCAY...OR NEAR HUTCHINSON...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN MCLEOD COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Looks like a typical outbreak that forms close to the ULL. Lots of little super cells as opposed to a few giant ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Looks like a typical outbreak that forms close to the ULL. Lots of little super cells as opposed to a few giant ones. One near Victoria is pretty big, bit of broad rotation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Storms popping in NE IL. A watch being considered. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0554.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Seems that modified EML aloft is really hurting mid level lapse rates and overall instability. This mod risk is going to have a tough time unless things change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Minnesota storms look to have lined out/weakened. It's pretty iffy but curious to see if things might fire ahead of it in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathon Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 They didn't make a watch for Nrn IL. Wonder what made them hold back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 They didn't make a watch for Nrn IL. Wonder what made them hold back. No severe storms. All I see is a big rain shield with maybe some rumbles of thunder. Maybe a few stronger storms on the north side but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 They didn't make a watch for Nrn IL. Wonder what made them hold back. Storms are out over the lake and there's no sign of immediate redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Some cells look to be initiating ahead of the line near Mason City. Worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 They didn't make a watch for Nrn IL. Wonder what made them hold back. Nothing in Northern IL to issue a watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 The storm that came through Lake County, IL helped to stabilize things further. If anything, the area will see some heavy rain tonight maybe some cloud to ground lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Could the LLJ maybe get some interesting going in Wisconsin tonight? Still wondering since the NWS hasn't downgraded today's outlook at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Severe threat is over, but looks like we'll at least see some more rain/t'storms come in with that band just NE of the Quad Cities if it doesn't shift east too fast. This looks to be a bust of a mod risk unless that thin line in E Minnesota starts producing as it enters Wisconsin and SE Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I think it's safe to say today was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I have to say the GFS and the other models were pretty good within 48 hours at the placement of the precip today. Considering most were expecting the Upper Mississippi Valley to be the zone of big storms, and the models indicated one slug of moisture near the low up in Minnesota, and another one with the gulf flow from the Lower Mississippi Valley up to Lake Michigan, that was pretty much what we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I think it's safe to say today was a bust. Seems like mother nature has to recharge after a big outbreak at times. It was fun to see how fast some of those cells were moving today, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Could the LLJ maybe get some interesting going in Wisconsin tonight? Still wondering since the NWS hasn't downgraded today's outlook at all. 01z outlook did downgrade quite a bit. Still a large latitudinal area with some threat but magnitude considerably lessened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Made it back home from the two day chase a little under two hours ago. Getting a ton of cg's here with this embedded cell within the main storm complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Seems that modified EML aloft is really hurting mid level lapse rates and overall instability. This mod risk is going to have a tough time unless things change soon. Do you think that is what hurt the potential? I mean, there were still areas of 1000+ MLCAPE to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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