NJHurricane Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 been to busy with work the past few weeks to follow our benign (except for the dryness/brushfire) weather beyond the daily forecast glance....can someone break down why we seem to be in a near continuous run of quite dry airmasses lately? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 been to busy with work the past few weeks to follow our benign (except for the dryness/brushfire) weather beyond the daily forecast glance....can someone break down why we seem to be in a near continuous run of quite dry airmasses lately? Thanks +* NAO / - PNA.... That NAO is sucking up all vorts into Canada , and nothing with juice can make it here. Then, our position within the ridge down south is giving us westerly component winds which is effective down sloping and drying us out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Dry begets dry... If this keeps up, will the feedback mechanisms mean we see a hotter then avg summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Dry begets dry... Is the most overused phrase in the warm season around here. Yes, it's true for Texas, where you can get a true dry feedback that moderates airmasses. Not on the East Coast with the Atlantic Ocean nearby. To answer the OP, it goes along with the near continuous torch since November. With a ridge set up off the East Coast, plus the dominant -PNA/+NAO that irishbri mentioned, the primary storm track has been well to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 - NAO / - PNA.... That NAO is sucking up all vorts into Canada , and nothing with juice can make it here. Then, our position within the ridge down south is giving us westerly component winds which is effective down sloping and drying us out too. Excellent answer and by the way if dry begets dry phrase is overused, then the weather we are experiencing must be in fact mimicking a dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I hope this helps. Posted by Grothar on 6 March 2012 - 04:41 PM in Philadelphia Region The first of many red flag days to come was issued for today. Its only going to get worse- Drought watch by Memorial Day for parts of our area appears to be a reality. The little rainfall we have had will not replenish the groundwater because we have had no snow cover this winter and what has fallen from the skies has ran off already. The streams are currently at base flow now and will continue to drop big time going into summer. The 90 day outlooks appear to be cool and damp but that does not mean s***. Cool and damp only gives us drizzle and cooler than normal days. I see us in a pattern like we are in now- 80 degree days for 2-3 days and 60 degree days for 4-5 days with little moisture falling upon us with the passing cool fronts. As long as the the GOM moisture is shut off in a dying La Nina Pattern going to neutral, the moisture influx to our area is gone. The only hope is a tropical moisture in August - October. Until then, we will rely thunderstorms scattered in nature. Severe weather is possible with each cool frontal passage but it will the hit quick or dying out t- storms. Some have posted of cloudy and dreary days to come- not good for outdoor activities but also not good for cutting into rainfall deficits. The stabilized atmosphere has been to hard to bust through with all precip events this past year and the the same pattern will go on. This weather pattern that will be going into will be like southern ca with cool and dreary mornings and warm afternoons. The only saving grace is if a stalled front in May hangs along the EC with s/w running along it. To me right now, thats like wishing for an HECS. Why should that happen now unless we go into a real deep -NAO which we have not had in almost a year Posted by Grothar on 15 March 2012 - 08:58 PM in Philadelphia Region tombo82685, on 15 March 2012 - 06:39 PM, said: Grothar, i agree with all the facts you have posted and i think everyone else here can agree we need some rain because we haven't had much. The only issue i had with your first statement you posted in the banter thread where you say drought watch by memorial day looks to be a reality. We should all know and you should know to how fast weather can change on a dime. What occurs this week could be vastly different from next week. Thats the only issue i have. Look at last summer at how dry we were till mid august then someone turned on the faucet.I agree with you tombo . I am hoping the weather pattern does change by memorial day. The only problem I have is that we were all saying that the weather pattern was going to change in December and it never did and we got screwed for the rest of winter. It will take a major game changer to get us out of this dry pattern and I really do not see that happening any time soon. That faucet got shut with the the cutoff valve closed. Typically with this current pattern a cool front comes through, drops less than .5 inch of rain , then warms up again with a dry SW wind. Hell, we cannot even get a t-storm with heavy precip to cross over the mts without dying out right now. We also cannot get a deep negative NAO to establish. To make matters worse, a backdoor cold front like we had today should have produced significant rain and t- storms with the temp gradient the way was across our area. If this was mid summer maybe? The point I am trying to make is that the available moisture is not aligning itself with actual frontal passage in our area and we are getting screwed out t-storms and long duration rains. This is not normal for this time of the year and is more typical of early October weather patterns. That is why I said about drought watches being issued by Memorial day because most people associate that day as first day of summer. Believe me, many hydrologists are watching this unfolding scenario carefully because it has been a long time since we have experienced absolutely no snowfall and insignificant rainfall to recharge our groundwater tables. I believe in the middle 1960's we experienced similar conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Excellent answer and by the way if dry begets dry phrase is overused, then the weather we are experiencing must be in fact mimicking a dry pattern. The cause of the dry weather isn't previous dry weather, it's the global circulation. I know you're not going to believe me because you think you know everything about hydrology, but it's the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The cause of the dry weather isn't previous dry weather, it's the global circulation. I know you're not going to believe me because you think you know everything about hydrology, but it's the truth. Oh I absolutely believe and agree with you- because weather in itself is fluid dynamics at work just like hydrology is. The major difference is that meteorology primarily affects the atmosphere and hydrology primarily affects the earth surface. Both involve water as their major fluid component. I have never claimed to know everything about hydrology just like I hope you never claim that you you know everything about meteorology, especially in a public forum where the audience is composed of weather experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 To answer the OP, it goes along with the near continuous torch since November. With a ridge set up off the East Coast, plus the dominant -PNA/+NAO that irishbri mentioned, the primary storm track has been well to our west. To this, my question is, how long does the pattern continue? It's been nearly 6 months so far. Sooner or later (one would think anyway) it would have to break down and change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 To this, my question is, how long does the pattern continue? It's been nearly 6 months so far. Sooner or later (one would think anyway) it would have to break down and change. all the models are showing pretty good agreement for this coming weekend of a good rainstorm. Though, wednesday a week out looked good today and that vanished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I really hope that I don't return to Jersey in a couple of weeks and find a dust bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I really hope that I don't return to Jersey in a couple of weeks and find a dust bowl. It's so bad they had to get rid of the animals at Halo Farm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I really hope that I don't return to Jersey in a couple of weeks and find a dust bowl. Yep jumping right from one desert to the next huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 The poster known as 'winterwarlock' cast a magic spell back in November that caused warm/dry weather to overspread the area. He's been maniacally laughing about the results ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 The poster known as 'winterwarlock' cast a magic spell back in November that caused warm/dry weather to overspread the area. He's been maniacally laughing about the results ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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