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April 14th, 2012 Plains High Risk


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First use of this in the new warnings...ICT notes in chat they are watching weak rotation for possible upgrade...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN

BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1256 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST

OF GALATIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE

DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

RUSSELL...SUSANK...GORHAM...BUNKER HILL...DORRANCE...LURAY...

PARADISE...LUCAS...MILBERGER...RUSSELL AIRPORT...WALDO AND WILSON

LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 176 AND 181.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3914 9903 3914 9849 3869 9848

3859 9903 3860 9904

TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 219DEG 36KT 3876 9902

TORNADO...POSSIBLE

HAIL...1.00IN

WIND...60 MPH

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CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141823Z - 142030Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAY INCREASE

THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BECOME OF INCREASING CONCERN INTO

MID-AFTERNOON OWING TO A FEW APPARENT MESOSCALE PROCESSES:

1. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX/OK

PANHANDLES ACROSS W TX THAT WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY AID IN STORM INITIATION. SFC WINDS HAVE

SLIGHTLY VEERED WEST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LAST

HOUR...SUGGESTING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BE MODESTLY SHARPENING WITH

AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL ASCENT. THE CUMULUS FIELD JUST

EAST OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED PER

RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGES...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPENING

CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS JUST

WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO AID IN INITIATION.

2. A SECONDARY MOISTURE GRADIENT IS NOTED 30-50 MILES WEST OF THE

DRYLINE...WITH ATTENDANT ASCENT AUGMENTED BY AN

EWD-MIGRATING...SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE

CNTRL TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVERLAYS THE SECONDARY

MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND THESE FEATURES MAY FOCUS INITIATION IN THE

ERN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

3. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE IS NOTED OVER WRN OK FROM ROGER MILLS

COUNTY SWD TOWARD WILBARGER COUNTY TX. THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION

WITHIN THIS ZONE OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING AND

DIFFERENTIAL VERTICAL MIXING RATES COULD ALSO FOCUS CONVECTIVE

INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY ERUPT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES BETWEEN

1930 AND 2100Z. IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS...STORMS WOULD

RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 45-55 KT

WILL FAVOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO FAST MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH

531 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH ACCORDING TO THE 17Z NORMAN RAOB...AND A

LARGE DEGREE OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN THE LOWEST 0.5

KM...TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE OF CONCERN...CONTINGENT ON

THE INITIATION OF STORMS. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR STRONGER

TORNADOES WILL BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE THE ISSUANCE OF A

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE

THREAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT LOWER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NOT AS

GREAT.

ULTIMATELY...THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE CONTINGENT ON

AN INCREASINGLY APPARENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION...FOR WHICH SOME

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL

CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WITH A WW...OR PERHAPS MULTIPLE

WATCHES...POSSIBLY BEING ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012

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