Srain Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Btw we have a day two moderate with a 45% percent hatch. Noted in the other pinned thread... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/33786-april-12th13th-and-15-16th-severe-weather-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 Baseballs already falling from the elevated activity along the warm front in central NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0166.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 We are most likely going to make a run into central KS and see what happens, just entering KS now. The stuff going up near/south of DDC should be interesting in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I-35 from Oklahoma city to Wichita is ridiculous with chasers right now Talk about clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0166.html 80/80 on tornado probs on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Just into KC, thinking Topeka area to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Pretty much agree with the SPC's placement of highest tornado probs...if anything I probably would have clipped the southern end a bit given the high resolution models' lack of breaking out any cells in central OK. Spatial coverage certainly won't be an issue further north given the multiple rounds of initiation. I do think the worst of the tornadic activity will wait until after 21z, when the low level jet gets cranked up, although we still could see at least several significant tornadoes before then. There's nothing that suggests to me at this time that this will fall short of a large, high-impact tornado outbreak for at least NE and KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 1st warning of the day up: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1209 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 1245 PM CDT * AT 1204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF OSBORNE...OR 30 MILES WEST OF BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOWNS...CAWKER CITY...IONIA...ESBON...BURR OAK AND MANKATO. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. && LAT...LON 3999 9840 3977 9813 3928 9855 3938 9879 TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 209DEG 37KT 3942 9863 HAIL <.75IN $$ HEINLEIN wont post anymore wordings, just thought we'd kick this off with the 1st one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 First tornado warning of the day-- Osborne, KS. I am only seeing some 30 knot delta-v (or gate-to-gate shear) on GRLevel3, but I certainly won't question any tornado warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0524.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Going to go have a look see with the first tor warning of the day in northern KS. 30 miles west of Mankato Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Pretty much agree with the SPC's placement of highest tornado probs...if anything I probably would have clipped the southern end a bit given the high resolution models' lack of breaking out any cells in central OK. Spatial coverage certainly won't be an issue further north given the multiple rounds of initiation. I do think the worst of the tornadic activity will wait until after 21z, when the low level jet gets cranked up, although we still could see at least several significant tornadoes before then. There's nothing that suggests to me at this time that this will fall short of a large, high-impact tornado outbreak for at least NE and KS. Agreed. We saw a similar evolution of events on 5 May 2007, with early, non-tornadic intitiation that eventually evolved into an outbreak of 93 tornadoes. The difference today is three-fold. 1) Better instability/shear combo. 2) Main threat shifted a bit east into more populated areas. 3) Better support for nighttime tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 KS cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 WICHITA WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ERN KINGMAN COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF ASCENT TRANSLATING NEWD FROM NRN OK PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS AMIDST STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CINH /SBCINH ALREADY LESS NEGATIVE THAN -10 J PER KG ACCORDING TO MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS/...CONVECTION MAY RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND BECOME TORNADIC GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH 165 MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EWD INTO MORE OF SERN KS AND POSSIBLY NERN OK IF THIS THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Associated picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Headed north on I-35 out of OKC to the KS/OK border. Live chasercam up at www.texasstormchasers.com/live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 Alright heading off to work. Going to be a long day. Wish us luck out here at LBF. Try and keep the disco clean and banter free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Alright heading off to work. Going to be a long day. Wish us luck out here at LBF. Try and keep the disco clean and banter free. Hope you don't have to give us too much reading material tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Michael Wurzburger's is watching that tornado warned storm in KS. http://www.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 WICHITA WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ERN KINGMAN COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF ASCENT TRANSLATING NEWD FROM NRN OK PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS AMIDST STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CINH /SBCINH ALREADY LESS NEGATIVE THAN -10 J PER KG ACCORDING TO MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS/...CONVECTION MAY RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND BECOME TORNADIC GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH 165 MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EWD INTO MORE OF SERN KS AND POSSIBLY NERN OK IF THIS THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE. Just saw that on the RUC, also the visible satellite image posted that shows increasing cloud development west of the sunshine here in Joplin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Southern most severe warned cell in KS is one to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Southern most severe warned cell in KS is one to keep an eye on I strongly agree, It looks like it has the potential to really explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachary Lassiter Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Spotter reports rotating wall cloud 2 NE Downs KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I strongly agree, It looks like it has the potential to really explode. Light mid level rotation starting to get going with this cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 TOR warning expired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Oh geeze some definite OK convection there. I predict some isolated monsters down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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