Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 SBCIN is fading quickly across DDC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Just left OKC. Headed north to Wichita for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 998 low forming near Colorado Springs, where previously low pressure was in southern Utah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Those SW Kansas cells could quickly become tornadic with 0-1 km helicities of 300-400 m^2/s^2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 More convection going up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 We are on I-80, west of Lincoln. Liking Alma to Hays right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... EASTERN TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT * AT 1026 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BAZINE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. Quick mover this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Just a friendly reminder for all of us not to post every severe warning that comes up today. This is going to get very hectic later on. Focus on sig svr and tornadic action/reports. This is what we do in the Great Lakes forum and the process works well. Comments on svr storms are always appreciated however, like B-Rent's post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 To squatch.... I don't think it's possible to determine that right now. Probably won't have much of an effect on stuff after 00z. Nor does it mean the evening stuff will be that much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NWS-Norman on Twitter: PDS Tornado watch being issued. Will include northern Oklahoma. #okwx DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Still only approaching 11 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0165.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 PDS watch 80/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 High risks on the watch across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Ironically, this early firing was caught by the RR or RAP yesterday evening. These storms stayed throught the run and nothing of significance fired behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 PDS Tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Its really hard to read through this discussion with all of the talk about busts and such. Any situation like this is dangerous and calling busts and such right now is ridiculous. If it doesnt play out, then thats a good thing, but lets not call it a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 By definition was watch is PDS as it is partially in the High Risk area, that said the probs are high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...AIDING IN STORMS BECOMING SURFACE-BASED. VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 So we could be looking at a bust? These could get going and then it's possible more fires later this evening. It's tough sometimes to figure out initialization and location of storms when there may be different locations and times of clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...AIDING IN STORMS BECOMING SURFACE-BASED. VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HART If you look at Low Level lapse rates they are actually quite stable across the area currently. However, looking at the 3 hour change, destabilization in the lower levels can be found albeit a slow process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 72 dbz and 3.75" hail on that big NE storm. Pretty incredible for 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 So we could be looking at a bust? According to one model. Failure is always an option, but to call it at 11 AM Local time is foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Just have to see what changes are made to the 1630 outlook, and then work off of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Also, differences between LCL/LFC remain quite high. A small pocket of 90% RH between the LCL/LFC is currently expanding just SE of where the initiation in KS is currently ongoing. This is indicative of the LCL/LFC nearing each other allowing deeper convection to fire, as this continues, these storms this morning may be the ones to watch headed into the afternoon as factors continue to improve for deeper convection/tornadic possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Hmmm, may be a rough day across SW Kansas if the HRRR is right. Initial cells moving through central and NE Kansas: 2 hours later.. we're back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 JoMo, makes alot of sense looking at the mesoanalysis right now. If things continue playing the way they are, SW KS may be the big hit today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coreyback Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 According to one model. Failure is always an option, but to call it at 11 AM Local time is foolish. In addition, the 12z HRRR from this morning does develop some new stuff behind the initial activity. http://rapidrefresh....f_t5sfc_f11.png EDIT: And as posted above. I am too slow for these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 Hmmm, may be a rough day across SW Kansas if the HRRR is right. Initial cells moving through central and NE Kansas: 2 hours later.. we're back This is always the worry with active drylines and extreme low level advection...you can get recharge and multiple rounds of DMC initiating discrete supercells into the broad warm sector. The extreme advection can make blowoff less of a problem than in more quiescent flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 To squatch.... I don't think it's possible to determine that right now. Probably won't have much of an effect on stuff after 00z. Nor does it mean the evening stuff will be that much worse. Only this is that it solves the issue of convective initiation. Definitely increases the likelihood of the risk area verifying I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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