B-Rent Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 You have to wonder if it's really such a swell idea to have 70,000 people in a stadium from 2PM-5PM in Lincoln just for a Spring Game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Could I have a link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 What is concerning to me is that the SPC says the storms may have some distance between them so they shouldn't be fighting each other and that could allow them to really stay tornadic for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Surprise?? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0942 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 141442Z - 141615Z CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...AND SWRN KS IF THE THREAT FOR DEEPENING CONVECTION ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A ZONE OF TOWERING CUMULUS EVOLVING FROM FAR SWRN KS SSWWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THIS ZONE ALIGNS WITH A RIBBON OF INFERRED ASCENT PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 12Z AMARILLO RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATES THAT INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN POCKETS OF INSOLATION. FARTHER NORTH INTO SWRN KS -- I.E. NORTH OF THE TRACK OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PRIOR SUBTLE IMPULSE -- THE CAP IS MUCH MORE STOUT PER DODGE CITY 12Z RAOB. REGARDLESS...CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2...MAINTAINED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..COHEN.. 04/14/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM for 5pm today. ( sfc pressure, sfc wind, dewpoints , CAPE , svr weather index combined) f5 data = good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 tor:con now a 9 in south central kansas and nebraska.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Surprise?? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0942 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 141442Z - 141615Z CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...AND SWRN KS IF THE THREAT FOR DEEPENING CONVECTION ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A ZONE OF TOWERING CUMULUS EVOLVING FROM FAR SWRN KS SSWWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THIS ZONE ALIGNS WITH A RIBBON OF INFERRED ASCENT PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 12Z AMARILLO RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATES THAT INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN POCKETS OF INSOLATION. FARTHER NORTH INTO SWRN KS -- I.E. NORTH OF THE TRACK OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PRIOR SUBTLE IMPULSE -- THE CAP IS MUCH MORE STOUT PER DODGE CITY 12Z RAOB. REGARDLESS...CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2...MAINTAINED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..COHEN.. 04/14/2012 Would this lower the threat for this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I'll be going live on my stream soon for an update, anyone want a link? If this is not allowed (advertising like this), please pm me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 1430Z VIS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Hmm...Potential for much greater threat to central KS as opposed to NE based on latest guidance? As far as that initiation lessening the threat I'm not a Met but my guess is no, that was significantly west of the High Risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 All this warranted concern about late initiation, and it appears its already occurring well west of the entire risk area? ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 This is the key to today: "REGARDLESS...CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 This is the key to today: "REGARDLESS...CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION." exactly. I am getting the itch to head home to kansas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 There ya go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 And so much for thinking that the dry line would not fire till late in the day. This may be only the appetizer, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Now if most of the southern dryline can light-up later and remain discrete, we could be looking at a more substantial threat than previously thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 They may in their next update have to expand the high risk about 25 to 50 miles farther west on the southern end due to where initiation is going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM STP for later tonight > April 27th, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 think this early activity will lessen the chance of the stronger stuff this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM STP for later tonight > April 27th, 2011 Could I have a link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM STP for later tonight > April 27th, 2011 Is that a 22 showing up? Looks like some adjustments are going to need to be made in the next outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM STP for later tonight > April 27th, 2011 MY HOUSE IS JUST EAST OF THE BULLS EYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Could I have a link to that? F5 Data http://www.f5data.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 think this early activity will lessen the chance of the stronger stuff this evening? If it goes linear and merges into an MCS then yes, if not it could make this day very bad for some areas of KS, we had a day 3 or 4 years ago along I-70 in KS where initiation occurred late AM and we had tornadoes going up for about 7 or 8 straight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Meso discussion says cap is much more stout in sw KS per Dodge City. Yet that is where storms are currently firing. Going to be a very interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM and RUC both have this convection firing, the morning stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Very interested in the next SPC update. These cells could change the whole risk for better or for worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM and RUC both have this convection firing, the morning stuff. The 00Z WRF nailed this too, showed a ton of stuff firing 14-16Z OK PNHNDL and KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Probably going to need a watch in west KS like now. Already seeing a half dozen hail markers and the storms just fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Morning sounding from DDC in southwest KS where the storms are firing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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