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April 14th, 2012 Plains High Risk


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1148 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 150448Z - 150615Z

GIVEN CONTINUED GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...THERE STILL APPEARS

TO BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL MIGRATING

NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE PRIOR

TO PROJECTED PROGRESSION THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS

CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY 07-08Z. HOWEVER...IF THIS CELL DOES NOT

SHOW SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER WEAKENING TRENDS DURING THE NEXT HOUR...A

NEW TORNADO WATCH PROBABLY WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED.

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Who's to say that the 60dbz pixel wasn't debris from what was hit earlier being suspended in the air by the RFD? Really is no way to prove either way what it was.

Yup, no way to prove that exact pixel is debris related since there is plenty of hail in the region. The main debris clue was reflectivity near the tornado going from a spiral to a blob within 5 minutes.

I wish I had access to dual pol, that's a surefire way to distinguish between precipitation and debris.

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It is never a good thing when the SPC puts out MCDs basically for a single storm. I have my doubts it's going to hold together into KC, but as it stands, without any sudden confirmations of towns swept clean elsewhere, it looks like that cell may well be the storm of the day. The radar images from when it was on the the OK/KS line were horrifying.

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TOG in OK

970

WFUS54 KOUN 150500

TOROUN

OKC045-059-153-150530-

/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0033.120415T0500Z-120415T0530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

1200 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1159 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 7

MILES SOUTHEAST OF GAGE. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WOODWARD...FARGO AND TANGIER.

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This event just goes to show what a strong storm system can do at night. Two years ago my town got hit by an F-4 at midnight and that was with a 998 mb low. Right now we've got two 994 mb centers with an extremely amplified jet. That just spells terrible news and we're seeing the consequences.

Btw I think 118 reports of tornadoes should quiet those talking bust

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The squall line has 3000-4000 J/kg most unstable CAPE to work with in TX and OK. There could be a tremendous amount of damage from hail and winds since it's going to hit such a broad area. Probably going to get some tornadoes along it too, and those sort of tornadoes are harder to foresee than supercell ones generally. Just takes a little notch and that can happen fast.

spcomp.gif

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Woodward cell:

AT 1204 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM

SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FARGO...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

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