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April 14th, 2012 Plains High Risk


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SPC update...definitely sounding more pessimistic but obviously tornado threat remains...

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.

LONG-LIVED...MODESTLY FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR

ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING.

SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 30

KT...THROUGH THE OPEN WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE CENTERED

OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION

REMAINS WEAK/UNCERTAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND

CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...AND INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS

MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME WITH SURFACE COOLING. HOWEVER...BENEATH

DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...STORM-SCALE

DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY INTO AT LEAST THE

02-04Z TIME FRAME. CELLS APPEAR GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE

INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS /50-70 KT AT 850 MB/...WHERE

ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL SUPPORT

THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

THE HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE WITH CELLS DEVELOPING

NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL

KANSAS...NEAR/SOUTH OF WICHITA...ASSOCIATED WITH INFLOW OF AT LEAST

A BIT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR THAN CELLS FARTHER NORTH.

OTHERWISE...NW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE BACK TO THE WEST

ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY

RETREATED WESTWARD SOME THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.

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mcd0535.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0715 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NW AND N CNTRL OK INTO NE KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...

VALID 150015Z - 150115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.

LONG-LIVED...MODESTLY FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR

ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING.

SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 30

KT...THROUGH THE OPEN WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE CENTERED

OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION

REMAINS WEAK/UNCERTAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND

CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...AND INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS

MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME WITH SURFACE COOLING. HOWEVER...BENEATH

DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...STORM-SCALE

DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY INTO AT LEAST THE

02-04Z TIME FRAME. CELLS APPEAR GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE

INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS /50-70 KT AT 850 MB/...WHERE

ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL SUPPORT

THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

THE HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE WITH CELLS DEVELOPING

NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL

KANSAS...NEAR/SOUTH OF WICHITA...ASSOCIATED WITH INFLOW OF AT LEAST

A BIT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR THAN CELLS FARTHER NORTH.

OTHERWISE...NW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE BACK TO THE WEST

ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY

RETREATED WESTWARD SOME THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.

..KERR.. 04/15/2012

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