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April 14th, 2012 Plains High Risk


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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

641 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 636 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR

WELLFLEET...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF CURTIS

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Great job following these storms and providing commentary on what's happening. I'm going to continue to refresh this page to keep learning and aware of what's happening.

My thoughts and prayers go out to the individuals who will be affected by these dangerous storms tonight.

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OUN Aviation AFD suggests NW OK cells are it for discrete activity in their CWA - focus then shifts to line late tonight...

THE CURRENT SEVERE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TAF

SITES OTHER THAN KVNX THIS EVENING...AS WE EXPECT THE CAP TO

REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR STORMS TO FORM MUCH FARTHER S THAN THE

CURRENT STORMS. A NEW CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO FORM AROUND

15/0500Z AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND PRESSES E

ACROSS OK AND N TX. THIS LINE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL OUR SITES

BY THE TIME IT EXITS TO THE E OF KOKC/KOUN AROUND 15/1000Z. SOME

BLDU MAY REACH FAR NW OK THIS EVENING...REDUCING VSBYS TO 3 TO 6

SM AT TIMES.

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Not calling bust, but if the day ended right now, I'd still be a bit underwhelmed. :P Not sure about the next few hours since HRRR dissipates supercells and since RUC increases CINH in the warm sector between now and 03Z.

Both of those things will be wrong...

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Live Chopper video of Oklahoma tornado on KFOR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

655 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

OKC093-151-153-150015-

/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-120415T0015Z/

MAJOR OK-WOODS OK-WOODWARD OK-

655 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR

NORTHWESTERN MAJOR...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL WOODS AND EXTREME EAST

CENTRAL WOODWARD COUNTIES...

AT 650 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF QUINLAN...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

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Not calling bust, but if the day ended right now, I'd still be a bit underwhelmed. :P Not sure about the next few hours since HRRR dissipates supercells and since RUC increases CINH in the warm sector between now and 03Z.

You trust the HRRR at this point? How many times has it flip flopped around where the supercells were going to intiate today. Look how well Nebraska and Iowa did today.

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CAPE is a bit underwhelming in Kansas right now though. 23z SPC mesoanalysis has only 1000-1500 j/kg of MLCAPE near the supercells in Kansas.

Would think shear will increase more but I think people also need to realize high risk includes hail and wind. It's possible the number of tors may not reach epic levels but we'll just have to see.

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