Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Caught a glimpse of a wedge on the TVN feed near Fellsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 I'd tend to agree...just seems the SRH while not gigantic is already there for the most part based on mesoanalysis as well as 17z/18z soundings. Just thought the circulations would seem to be stronger/more persistent than they have so far based on that. CAPE/Shear is very balanced overall. The supers firing along the dryline are going to be propagating into the best environment right around 00-03z. Could not have been timed more perfectly for initiation given their storm motion/speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Going right for Macksville and St. John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Yeah the SRH is already pretty high, but things are pretty much going as I expected. I'm not sure why, but the jump from "pretty high SRH" to "crazy SRH" makes a huge difference in terms of significant tornado production, at least from my subjective experience with outbreaks. It's like a switch comes on at some point. You are right about that. IMO...everything is about as perfect as it gets in OK/KS...very concerned once that switch does happen...hoping we can avoid population centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F-5 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Yeah the SRH is already pretty high, but things are pretty much going as I expected. I'm not sure why, but the jump from "pretty high SRH" to "crazy SRH" makes a huge difference in terms of significant tornado production, at least from my subjective experience with outbreaks. It's like a switch comes on at some point. Is it possible that the storm motion, with a little more northward component than you would normally get, is causing SRH to be overstated somewhat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Worthington another funnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Is it possible that the storm motion, with a little more northward component than you would normally get, is causing SRH to be overstated somewhat? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I hate that crappy radar coverage spot in NW OK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The storm NW of Woodward, OK, really looks to be getting its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Is it possible that the storm motion, with a little more northward component than you would normally get, is causing SRH to be overstated somewhat? Not sure what you mean. SRH, storm relative helicity, takes storm motion into account by definition. The cells deviating left have lower SRH inflow, and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The cell in Greenfield Iowa looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 5 N Corning [Adams Co, IA] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:00 PM CDT -- farm outbuilding destroyed by either wind or tornado. the event was not observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 IOWA SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 351 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 IAC001-003-121-175-142115- /O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120414T2115Z/ UNION IA-MADISON IA-ADAIR IA-ADAMS IA- 351 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN ADAMS... SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT... AT 347 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF GREENFIELD...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRESTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wlfpack81 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Cell in Adair Co. Iowa looks very impressive. Town of Orient directly in the patch of the velocity couplet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Cell N of Woodward, OK is really looking good, multiple reports of funnels. SRV increasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 From KFOR live stream, significant rotation with storm headed towards Freedom, OK. Tornado appearing imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Cell in Adair Co. Iowa looks very impressive. Town of Orient directly in the patch of the velocity couplet! What a beast, especially considering low instability. MLCAPE just a bit above 250 per RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165... VALID 142048Z - 142145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES. THE SVR THREAT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DISTRIBUTED WITHIN 3 SPATIAL REGIMES: 1. DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM EDWARDS COUNTY KS SWD TO WOODWARD COUNTY OK WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD/ENEWD AMIDST STRONG INSTABILITY. HILLSBORO/HAVILAND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-1-KM SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2 WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY WITHIN THE LOWEST 0.5 KM AGL...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. 2. FARTHER SOUTH INTO SWRN OK AND FAR ERN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A NARROW...NNE-SSW-ORIENTED RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CONVECTIVE PLUMES MAY EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THEY ENTER OK WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE PRESENT. 3. FARTHER NORTH INTO N-CNTRL KS...A QLCS SEGMENT AND EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURE WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WHILE TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOUND AT ITS INTERSECTION WITH A W-E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 What a beast, especially considering low instability. MLCAPE just a bit above 250 per RUC. It's just eating up all the shear along the warm front. You don't need a lot of CAPE when you have a boundary like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Steve worthington has been all over this storm and is now on another tornado already. Wonder how long this storm is going to continue producing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 AT 347 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF GREENFIELD IA...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRESTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Nothing too insane yet. Reports seem to be brief so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Steve worthington has been all over this storm and is now on another tornado already. Wonder how long this storm is going to continue producing? Thin Tornado on the ground now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 If the Iowa cell continues a while, it will enter the Des Moines area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 MCV in NE may damper the threat there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 406 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT * AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONFIRMED TORNADO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TIMKEN. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachary Lassiter Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 lol at this chaser report http://twitter.com/#!/spotternetwork/status/191271357311483904 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 lol at this chaser report http://twitter.com/#...271357311483904 spotternet folks will not be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Only really impressive cell is in Iowa now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The atmosphere in sctrl KS and adjacent OK is ripe. Just give it a few more hours I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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