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April 14th, 2012 Plains High Risk


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I'd tend to agree...just seems the SRH while not gigantic is already there for the most part based on mesoanalysis as well as 17z/18z soundings. Just thought the circulations would seem to be stronger/more persistent than they have so far based on that. CAPE/Shear is very balanced overall.

The supers firing along the dryline are going to be propagating into the best environment right around 00-03z. Could not have been timed more perfectly for initiation given their storm motion/speed.

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Yeah the SRH is already pretty high, but things are pretty much going as I expected. I'm not sure why, but the jump from "pretty high SRH" to "crazy SRH" makes a huge difference in terms of significant tornado production, at least from my subjective experience with outbreaks. It's like a switch comes on at some point.

You are right about that. IMO...everything is about as perfect as it gets in OK/KS...very concerned once that switch does happen...hoping we can avoid population centers.

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Yeah the SRH is already pretty high, but things are pretty much going as I expected. I'm not sure why, but the jump from "pretty high SRH" to "crazy SRH" makes a huge difference in terms of significant tornado production, at least from my subjective experience with outbreaks. It's like a switch comes on at some point.

Is it possible that the storm motion, with a little more northward component than you would normally get, is causing SRH to be overstated somewhat?

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Is it possible that the storm motion, with a little more northward component than you would normally get, is causing SRH to be overstated somewhat?

Not sure what you mean. SRH, storm relative helicity, takes storm motion into account by definition. The cells deviating left have lower SRH inflow, and vice versa.

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IOWA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

351 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

IAC001-003-121-175-142115-

/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120414T2115Z/

UNION IA-MADISON IA-ADAIR IA-ADAMS IA-

351 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN ADAMS...

SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN UNION

COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 347 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF GREENFIELD...OR 10 MILES

NORTHWEST OF CRESTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

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CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 142048Z - 142145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

THE SVR THREAT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DISTRIBUTED

WITHIN 3 SPATIAL REGIMES:

1. DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM EDWARDS COUNTY KS

SWD TO WOODWARD COUNTY OK WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG

TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD/ENEWD AMIDST

STRONG INSTABILITY. HILLSBORO/HAVILAND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-1-KM

SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2 WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY

WITHIN THE LOWEST 0.5 KM AGL...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR

SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

2. FARTHER SOUTH INTO SWRN OK AND FAR ERN PARTS OF THE TX

PANHANDLE...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A

NARROW...NNE-SSW-ORIENTED RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY...SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CONVECTIVE

PLUMES MAY EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS

DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THEY ENTER OK WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE

AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE PRESENT.

3. FARTHER NORTH INTO N-CNTRL KS...A QLCS SEGMENT AND EMBEDDED LEWP

STRUCTURE WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR

TWO WHILE TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE GREATEST

THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOUND AT ITS

INTERSECTION WITH A W-E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

406 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONFIRMED TORNADO 3 MILES

NORTHEAST OF TIMKEN. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45

MPH.

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