SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Watch that Burdett cell, old circulation has occluded, new one ramping up. KSN just reported TOG 2 miles W of Burdett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Large supercell with a possible developing tornado nearing Cumberland and Massena IA. No TOR yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Dry line becoming more established as more moist air come up from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 On the southern most KS tor warned cell. Nice rising motion and inflow. I've got your webcam. It dropped a funnel earlier. I saw it on Mark Hill's cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Funnel reported to the SW of the Kiowa County cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 VALID 142001Z - 142030Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES. DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS ADJACENT TO A N-S-ORIENTED ZONE OF SFC CONFLUENCE CONTINUE TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM CNTRL/SWRN KS INTO WRN OK. DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO HOUR...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL/SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK WITH NEWD/ENEWD-TRACKING SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY IN HODGEMAN/PAWNEE COUNTIES KS...KIOWA COUNTY KS...HARPER COUNTY OK...AND AN INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE PLUME IN ELLIS COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE TOWARD THE RED RIVER...AND THE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH 165 HAD EARLIER BEEN EXTENDED SWD TO THE TX/OK BORDER. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS EXHIBITING A SUBSTANTIAL DRYLINE-ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF AROUND 300-500 M2/S2...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO VIOLENT...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN. ..COHEN.. 04/14/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Cell near Buffalo, OK is going to be upgraded to a TW per KSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 If there's any good news for the big population centers...the Northern threat appears to be lowering due to ongoing convection and the Southern threat is setting up further west - away from the I-35 corridor. Maybe, maybe by the time that threat increases storm mode will be evolving towards linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Cell near Buffalo, OK is going to be upgraded to a TW per KSN. Per chat...OUN holding off based on chaser video. TOR is already prepared and ready to send though if something starts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Per chat...OUN holding off based on chaser video. TOR is already prepared and ready to send though if something starts... Thanks for the update, KSN just said the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 SREF 15z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The second storm behind the NE DDC has merged with it, and it is trying to re-organize into a more powerful storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Not sure what, but something still must be missing because these cells are just not able to maintain strong circulations for very long...at least yet. They seem to intensify for a few scans...and then dissipate...and another goes. More than just the typical cycle as the overall mid-level mesos having the same issue. This will probably not last...but I think for the moment its keeping these from becoming real strong...long-tracked threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Rotation increasing on the Buffalo cell, TW issued. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 318 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... EXTREME NORTHWESTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT * AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF SELMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN HARPER AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN WOODS COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Not sure what, but something still must be missing because these cells are just not able to maintain strong circulations for very long...at least yet. They seem to intensify for a few scans...and then dissipate...and another goes. More than just the typical cycle as the overall mid-level mesos having the same issue. This will probably not last...but I think for the moment its keeping these from becoming real strong...long-tracked threats. I'm not sure either, but it might be because the main upper level support is still back in the four corners region. I'd venture to guess in a few hours things will change. Maybe someone with more experience than me would have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 dryline retreating west in NE.....CAPE is now 3000 behind the storms discrete cells forming over the eastern TX panhandle going to be a long afternoon/evening....but for at least the next few hours over rural areas until the storm cross I-35 later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I'm not sure either, but it might be because the main upper level support is still back in the four corners region. I'd venture to guess in a few hours things will change. Maybe someone with more experience than me would have a better idea. Yeah I was expecting scarier, more persistent cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=13192&C=20643&O=10237 TOG on Mike Phelps cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Not sure what, but something still must be missing because these cells are just not able to maintain strong circulations for very long...at least yet. They seem to intensify for a few scans...and then dissipate...and another goes. More than just the typical cycle as the overall mid-level mesos having the same issue. This will probably not last...but I think for the moment its keeping these from becoming real strong...long-tracked threats. This was anticipated. Things won't really get going until another hour or two, and once that happens it'll jump quickly. The missing ingredient is the crazy helicities that come with the strengthening low level jet. I've seen this happen in previous outbreaks, with some of the extremists calling the event a bust, when all of a sudden the couplets tighten up all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Buffalo cell is into 4000 CAPE and highest STP of any of the cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Something is rapidly developing near Belpre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 This was anticipated. Things won't really get going until another hour or two, and once that happens it'll jump quickly. The missing ingredient is the crazy helicities that come with the strengthening low level jet. I've seen this happen in previous outbreaks, with some of the extremists calling the event a bust, when all of a sudden the couplets tighten up all at once. I'd tend to agree...just seems the SRH while not gigantic is already there for the most part based on mesoanalysis as well as 17z/18z soundings. Just thought the circulations would seem to be stronger/more persistent than they have so far based on that. CAPE/Shear is very balanced overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Waiting in Salina, I think these cells will intensify in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I fear this situation will only get worse as tornadotony referenced in an earlier post. The lengthy string of pearls will only move eastward into areas with higher dews and thus richer low level moisture as the low level jet ramps up and the trough ejects out with greater upper air support as progged for this evening into the overnight hours. We have been relatively fortunate so far that the storms have been in less populated rangeland areas but that is about to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 what a sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Storm really ramping up near Trousdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Worthington cam has a funnel half way to the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Steve Worthington's cam again. http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=steve.worthington&uid=390 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Storm really ramping up near Trousdale. Mike Phelps reporting a tornado on the ground with that storm, just called it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I'd tend to agree...just seems the SRH while not gigantic is already there for the most part based on mesoanalysis as well as 17z/18z soundings. Just thought the circulations would seem to be stronger/more persistent than they have so far based on that. CAPE/Shear is very balanced overall. Yeah the SRH is already pretty high, but things are pretty much going as I expected. I'm not sure why, but the jump from "pretty high SRH" to "crazy SRH" makes a huge difference in terms of significant tornado production, at least from my subjective experience with outbreaks. It's like a switch comes on at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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