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April 14th, 2012 Plains High Risk


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Are there any websites making use of this new system, where you can see at a glance?

I hope that the volume of information today doesnt make it too slow but I wrote something mostly for my personal use that takes this into account.

http://wxscout.com/

When you get to the site click on Summary in the upper right corner.

If you see the icon that looks like this:

torposs.gif

The algorithm has detected TORNADO...POSSIBLE

I am using NWS sources and WUnderground for radar so you may see a delay of 5 minutes or so with some warnings and warnings will linger for as long as 15 minutes past expiration. They are noted as expired though. During major outbreaks things may get slow but that has more to do with the volume at NWS and Wundergound than anything. Works best with a recent version of Firefox, Chrome or Safari.

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Think the two cells near DDC are the first to have serious potential over the next few hours.

two cells near DDC just went into tornado warning. Looks like a hook echo is hitting the DDC radar, but it is hard to tell.

edit: DDC cell looks much better on 3.5 tilt since it's so close to the radar.

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That Norfolk, NE cell looks like it's dropping MONSTER hail based on reflectivity and SPC reports... not TOR warned at the moment but still one of the nastiest looking cells on radar. I assume it may be elevated to a degree? There's some rotation with it.

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That Norfolk, NE cell looks like it's dropping MONSTER hail based on reflectivity and SPC reports... not TOR warned at the moment but still one of the nastiest looking cells on radar. I assume it may be elevated to a degree? There's some rotation with it.

Definitely elevated but indeed, likely a monster hail producer.

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The inversion appears to be quite a bit weaker and more elevated on the 17z balloon launch from OUN as compared to model forecast soundings and current RUC analysis. This may have implications for initiation at points farther south. Compare:

OUN.gif

GFS_3_2012041412_F06_35.5000N_97.5000W.png

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Definitely elevated but indeed, likely a monster hail producer.

Yeah, that's kind of what I figured. SPC storm reports page shows seven large hail reports, all of which were along the path of this one cell... a pretty impressive little storm! Even being an elevated storm, I wouldn't want to be near that thing with anything that could be damaged by hail. Yikes.

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mcd0527.gif

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 141844Z - 141945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS INCREASING OVER

PARTS OF SWRN KS INCLUDING THE DODGE CITY AREA. INFLOW INTO DISCRETE

SUPERCELLS EVOLVING OVER MEADE AND GRAY/FORD COUNTIES IS LIKELY

BECOMING SURFACE BASED PER MODIFIED RUC/OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. SBCAPE

VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT

RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH THESE STORMS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR --

0-1 KM SRH OF 297 M2/S2 PER HAVILAND KS PROFILER THAT ALSO INDICATES

A LARGE AMOUNT OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST

0.5 KM AGL -- COULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL

CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE WW

AREA WILL POSE MAINLY A LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT AND PERHAPS A

COUPLE OF TORNADOES BEFORE A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC

ENVIRONMENT FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS ARRIVES WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012

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