dan11295 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Looks like you got some heavy rain coming JoMo, FFW was just issued for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 On 4/14/2012 at 11:59 AM, dan11295 said: Seems to be very little ongoing convection atm within the risk area outside of the complex now pushing E of Tulsa. Anything else expected to fire prior to main initiation later this afternoon? I know the NAM shows some stuff in N OK around 15z but we are getting into nowcast range at the point. Been noticing the clouds developing/cooling a bit in W OK this morning. Not sure if whatever is causing that will push up some showers/t-storms or not though. Might be what the NAM was seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Expanded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 You have to wonder if it's really such a swell idea to have 70,000 people in a stadium from 2PM-5PM in Lincoln just for a Spring Game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 On 4/14/2012 at 1:00 PM, Derecho! said: You have to wonder if it's really such a swell idea to have 70,000 people in a stadium from 2PM-5PM in Lincoln just for a Spring Game. I hope if they continue it that they heavily stress the potential hell today may bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 game starts at 1, and will likely be over by 330-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I have no idea what Lincoln football traffic is like but I suspect the immense amounts of congested slow traffic from 5-6PM is probably more dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Ah, site I had looked at had the wrong start time - 1PM isn't quite as bad, I guess. However the Oklahoma Spring Game is in fact at 2PM. Oklahoma State Spring game is fortunately not today. Not that I assume they attract nearly as many people anyway, I assume, but fortunately the K-State, Kansas and Tulsa Spring games are not today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Has to be one of the largest High Risk areas in coverage I can remember, with a 45% TOR to boot.Digging through the Wiki High Risk archive, 6/5/08 was similar, but only 15% TOR so not comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The HRRR doesn't show much happening today, wouldn't that be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 New updated graphic from SPC with expanded high risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Hard to believe it's only 8 AM CDT and we have STP this high already: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_06z_refc_animate_1h.html Here is a composite reflectivity model centered Eastern Kansas, it shows a few supercells forming around 21z before things really get going after 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Quite cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I wrote this scale while I was at school yesterday. Some is be different than my original. TORrisk Scale CAPE 1. 1000 j/kg to 2000 j/kg 2. 2000 j/kg to 3000 j/kg 3. 3000+ j/kg EHI 1. 2-4 2. 4-7 3. 7+ SCP 1. 12 to 20 2. 20 to 28 3. 28+ STP 1. 2-6 2. 6-8 3. 8+ To use, you use the current parameters to find the numbers. For example, let's say the current paramters for Location X are 1475 j/kg CAPE 4 EHI 20 SCP 4 STP That would translate to 1,2,2,1. (Note, always round up if you have a parameter that is right on the border of two numbers, such as 20 SCP) Since thier are equal numbers of 2 and 1, the final TORrisk number is 1.5 If thier were 3 1s, the TORrisk would be 1. If thier were 3 2s, it would be 2. NOTE: If you have numbers that are all 3s, the TORrisk number is 4, the highest possible TORrisk number. Any questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I'd be astonished if the HRRR verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanB Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Some nasty looking storms look to move through portions of extreme eastern Kansas in the KC metro area on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 12z NAM def going with initiation by this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 hrrr breaks storms out around 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 15z RUC model run for the Significant Tornado Parameter valid at 9pm cdt tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 09z SREF still waiting for it to finish, but it doesn't do much for the dry line in OK. edit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanB Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Incredible numbers on that map Jomo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM parameters after 00z..especially 03z or so are very impressive for central Kansas and into Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 kansas or nebraska...grr.... I will probably go to york, re-evaluate then around 2pm, then go from there (could be in south central kansas by 5-6pm if i go that rout) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 On 4/14/2012 at 2:13 PM, mike2010 said: anybody know if this is the largest expansion of High Risk in history ? Has to be the most in years. no ? I guess we can't say they screwed up this go around... unless this outbreak severely underplays. Not even close 5/30/04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 On 4/14/2012 at 2:13 PM, mike2010 said: anybody know if this is the largest expansion of High Risk in history ? Has to be the most in years. no ? I guess we can't say they screwed up this go around... unless this outbreak severely underplays. I don't think so, there have been many high risk days extending from NE into OK in the past. This event I think will work out as expected for KS and NE, OK I am not so sure....especially once south of an Enid-Stillwater line. North of there I think one or 2 cells will fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 On 4/14/2012 at 2:15 PM, Superstorm93 said: Not even close 5/30/04 thanks, nice find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 If today busts, it will be one of the greatest busts ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Both the lastest RUC and NAM scans have the warm front not making it as high into NE as previously thought. Right around the KS/NE state line looks to be as high as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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