baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 We are going to start a new thread just for tomorrow and then re-merge all the threads later. Have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Staying in DSM tonight, plan to leave around 9am, should be enough time to have to get to any target tomorrow. Both northern/target areas have their pros/cons...will need a good analysis in the morning to figure things out. The colored pencils are ready. Good luck to all out tomorrow and please drive safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 Of course I will be working tomorrow afternoon. NAM/RGEM would support a tor threat tomorrow here. RGEM scares me with the dryline bulge and elongated warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Both northern/target areas have their pros/cons...will need a good analysis in the morning to figure things out. The colored pencils are ready. Good luck to all out tomorrow and please drive safe. same here. I am still debating on eastern Nebraska (currently in Lincoln) or going down to McPherson (my home). Only reason im in Nebraska at the moment is because i had to bring some stuff to my brother and possibility of going to the spring football game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 00z NAM in northern OK at 00z tomorrow. Still a head scratcher as to why many numerical models are initiating almost no convection across I35 tomorrow besides the RGEM/GFS. CINH is gone by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The 21z SREF tor ingredients has a 50 from 15-21z spreading northeast from KS into southeast NE with a 40 from NE into nw MO at 0z. Also a small 50 in southeast KS at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I think a good play would be between Omaha and Lincoln, as it stands right now. Of course this can and probably will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxrjm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 A warning from a friend to any chasers. The Nebraska Spring Football game is tomorrow afternoon so expect traffic in the Lincoln area. Stay safe everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 If the RGEM verifies with its initiation 21-00z the high risk will easily be verified across KS/OK. You can see what it is initiating in the 700 plot at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I think a good play would be between Omaha and Lincoln, as it stands right now. Of course this can and probably will change. Yeah I think my virtual target is probably York NE for tonight, we'll see what the overnight convection does. I like the further southwest targets so that you can get into the warm sector and creep up behind the warm front to chase these things from the backside so you don't get run over plus you'll get a better view from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 A warning from a friend to any chasers. The Nebraska Spring Football game is tomorrow afternoon so expect traffic in the Lincoln area. Stay safe everyone! My co-worker will be at that game, lol. I hope he has fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_chip Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 0z NAM has shifted low farther west and south. Most likely going to target around the North Platte, NE area. LCLs are remarkably low along with early initiating storms and slower storm movements. Southeasterly surface winds are a huge pro here and will greatly increase 0-1km shear. To me this is a no brainer, not only in environmental conditions but chaser convergence wise as well. Chip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I am thinking that with the day one outlook for Saturday evening, that SW MN will be put into a slight risk area, it may even include the Twin Cities metro (although I don't think so).. Depending what the models show tonight, a mod risk is not out of the question for SW MN. By Sunday there is no question in my mind that the Twin Cities metro will be be under a slight risk. We will set up under the warm sector with the Euro showing 90-120 knts winds at 200mb intersecting the warm sector, and 500mb winds at 50 knots or so, per the 13/12z ECMWF... very interesting indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 fairly impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I think a good play would be between Omaha and Lincoln, as it stands right now. Of course this can and probably will change. Thinking like Thundersnow after advice earlier from Snowgoose, KS/NE border and reassess from there. The worrying thing looking at the NAM soundings is that in Nebraska, the instability and shear really ramp up at 00z and later. Hoping that it's not a nighttime show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 My co-worker will be at that game, lol. I hope he has fun. If I chase here in nebraska, ill be attending the game as well, may as well kill some time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_chip Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I can't say I have used the GEM much for convective storms, just mostly winter systems. Medium to short range, how does it typically handle it? Seems to me its over-doing precip over quite a wide area with poor resolution. Chip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 I can't say I have used the GEM much for convective storms, just mostly winter systems. Medium to short range, how does it typically handle it? Seems to me its over-doing precip over quite a wide area with poor resolution. Chip The RGEM is a skillful model, I think it is better than the NAM. It runs at 15 km, is not non-hydrostatic like the NAM, and unfortunately only comes in 12 hr plots from EC...hence why it looks like it is "overdoing" it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Yeah I think my virtual target is probably York NE for tonight, we'll see what the overnight convection does. I like the further southwest targets so that you can get into the warm sector and creep up behind the warm front to chase these things from the backside so you don't get run over plus you'll get a better view from the south. With the storms moving at 50-55mph I'd play the warm front from the North that way you aren't chasing from behind all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 according to MPX the number 3 analog storm is March 29th 1998, the Comfrey/St Peter storm that was long tracked.....say 67 miles or so. I won't bore you with the MPX afternoon AFD....but here is a link to the set up and the evolving storm that set up. Again I won't post the whole thing, just a link that peeps can choose to read... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=1998mar29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 The GEM Regional only 12 hrs? I have seen the 18z and 6z....are we talking the same thing? No it runs 4 times a day, but environment canada on their website only has 12 hr plots. Ewall has not been working lately...but that came in 6 hr plots. The model itself is sent in 3 hr plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The GEM REG is a 48 hour model that updates 4 times per day.....here is a link, we may be talking two different models...I don't know for sure. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemreg&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 The GEM REG is a 48 hour model that updates 4 times per day.....here is a link, we may be talking two different models...I don't know for sure. http://meteocentre.c...&run=00〈=en Ugh enough...yes we are talking about the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 you guys there at LBF can't get the better plots from EC-MSC? good thing i have connections with former co-workers at TWN in mississaga. and fwiw, it looks like 3 bands will get going with the latest RGEM. the first with the warm front, #2 with a short-wave that enters the warm sector near 18Z, and the 3rd near the cold front/dry line near 21Z. i am hoping that's not the case as that would make for S+M type treatment for everyone involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Still thinking there are outs in the KS/OK area tomorrow...if convection doesn't fire. That said...don't want to be in the path of any discrete cell that does go there tomorrow. In terms of confidence...actually more convinced in NE tomorrow just simply because storm coverage shouldn't be a concern...and parameters may be maximized in that triple point area. Suspect SPC will keep both Highs...but if they go 45% in one area...think the northern area has the better shot at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 storms along the dry line in ks per 00z nam... (starts firing around 20-21z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Here is what I believe is the Nam Fixed STP for 12z Sunday .... and here is what I think is the effective NAM forecast for the same hour (using the ML Cin I believe) either way not good for MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 45% tor risk in the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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