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April 14-17 Severe Prospects


Indystorm

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Yeah lake outflow boundaries...I'm used to those! Looks like the prevailing winds turn a bit SE out towards I-39. Wondering if that same wind flow will progress eastward and lead to stabilizing along the lake later on.

Still cloudy here. Had about 5 minutes of hazy sun at 4:30pm.

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Yeah lake outflow boundaries...I'm used to those! Looks like the prevailing winds turn a bit SE out towards I-39. Wondering if that same wind flow will progress eastward and lead to stabilizing along the lake later on.

Still cloudy here. Had about 5 minutes of hazy sun at 4:30pm.

It would probably be like right near the immediate shore if it happens given that sfc winds aren't forecast to back to much more than 170 degrees.

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tried to warn you.

Wrong, you were the one who said the other day the warm front wouldn't make it past I-80 last night, then questioned my reading comprehension. You never mentioned outflow boundaries, and I was the one convinced this cloud/convective debris would ruin Milwaukee's chances.

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Nice satellite image DLL. You can see the startings of a t-storm line in NC IA. Lots of clouds here still. It'll probably never completely clear out tonight.

Little bit of cooler air working in north of Milwaukee. Only 55° in Grafton. Correction - old observation. Low 60s though in Port Washington.

?? 69.8 here with SW wind.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KWISAUKV3

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Cell moving into the Barrington area looks to be getting its act together. Starting to hear thunder here. Few sprinkles.

@Tropical. The Grafton reading was old. I notice that Port Washington is in the 50s right now.

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More sun might have helped the chances of getting something decent during the daylight hours but I'm not sure whether it matters for later. Given all the clouds and strong low level flow I think the diurnal drop just slows. IOW, if high temps were in the upper 70's or whatever I'm not sure how much warmer it would be at 10 PM vs this situation.

Better forcing still out to the west so we'll see if it can start to compensate a bit for the modest instability.

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If there are no tornadoes in WI it will be one of the rare times that the 50 prob from the SREF sig tor flops. I've seen anything from a few tornadoes to a big outbreak when it has that but usually not a complete shutout.

thanks, i was going to ask. Still some time I guess but it does appear the writing is on the wall.

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