Hoosier Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Tomorrow seems like one of those days that is right on the edge of being fairly big. Seems like the NAM is trying to back the low level flow a tad more than previously in IL at 00z...but it could just be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Looking at the models, If I were able to chase WI tomorrow I would be looking to the River Falls, Menomonie, EAU area. The 12z ECMWF( I think looking at the wind fields) plus the 12z GFS and 18z Nam show strongly elevated STP parameters over the Twin Cities between 10z and 18z. As a mater of fact, I would probably set up just ne of River Falls. IMO when the new day one outlook is posted from the SPC we should see a western expansion of the MOD risk to include the Twin Cities Metro area. On a side note...the Fox affiliate here in the Twin Cities has two mets on duty tonight, I find that very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Action is heading east. Storms blowing upon eastern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Forecast soundings are pretty nasty in parts of WI and westward into Minnesota...supportive of strong to perhaps violent tornadoes. The question continues to be whether the really favorable tornado parameters are in a small corridor there or can extend farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 beautiful mature MCS with textbook comma head and WAA wing. Should get clipped by southern edge overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Cedar Rapids has a severe storm warning for wind, but there is barely any wind at all. It's just a garden variety storm with some mild lightning and moderately heavy rain. It's tapering off as I type. I was expecting more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Low level wind fields get nuts especially after 0z Monday (925 mb winds of 50-55 kts on the 0z NAM!) but start to outrun the instability axis a bit. Still wouldn't take much to bring some of that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Pretty good storm by Ottawa, IL. SWS on it: ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 1038 PM...NEAR UTICA...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... UTICA... OGLESBY... LA SALLE... PERU... NAPLATE... OTTAWA... MARSEILLES... SERENA... SENECA... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I expect that map to move to the west in the next run for 21z and than explode over WI around 0z....the 15/0z NAM has slowed this thing down by about 6 hrs. 0-6km sheer at 21z off the new Nam is around 85 knots over the Twin Cities metro, just north of a area that shows 1500 sb cape. This looks very frightening for the TC Metro IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I'm real glad I decided to spend $70 on parking my car in the airport parking structure before leaving. Real pissed Wisconsin is the bullseye for severe wx right when I leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 The NAM model has been too far north with this thunderstorms moving into the western Lakes. It had the right idea with the 12z run. HRRR has been shifting the complex further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Moderate risk in part of WI/IL/MN/IA. Gonna try to use the main forum thread for more serious posts and this one more for IMBY banter/questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Buckle up, DLL, looks like you're in for a rough ride later today. Try to get some shots to put on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 It sucks that NWS La Crosse has their radar down for upgrades... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 It sucks that NWS La Crosse has their radar down for upgrades... Yes, it really does. Now that I have a satellite forecast for TWC, there aren't many radar options besides the regional one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 LOT has put out a informational wx briefing on the severe weather prospects for the region later today. Looks like after 3pm this far east for any severe action. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 It sucks that NWS La Crosse has their radar down for upgrades... It's been an unusual spring. They probably never thought they would be dealing with svr risks this far north this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 400 m^2/s^2 of helicity combined with 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE bullseyed over SW WI. Convergence line taking shape in western IA. Careful folks, don't let the calm first part of the day fool you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Got some typical run of the mill type storms in Racine & Waukesha County, WI now. Solid cloud cover here all afternoon so far. Actually they are just under severe limits, by the sounds of it. WIZ065-066-071-072-152015- KENOSHA-MILWAUKEE-RACINE-WAUKESHA- 306 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA... AT 304 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HALES CORNERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. * THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... UW-MILWAUKEE CAMPUS BY 315 PM CDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Getting into a lot more sunshine here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 About 7 chasers positioned near where it's gonna start/starting (convection firing in NW IA). It's gonna get old fashioned if they choose to follow these into the La Crosse area where there's no radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 HRRR showing some small cells moving into La Crosse later. Bigger storms in NE IL/SE WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 dang SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 256 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AT 252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUTLEDGE TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RUTLEDGE TO 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RUTLEDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 90 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Line of storms at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Nice satellite image DLL. You can see the startings of a t-storm line in NC IA. Lots of clouds here still. It'll probably never completely clear out tonight. Little bit of cooler air working in north of Milwaukee. Only 55° in Grafton. Correction - old observation. Low 60s though in Port Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Nice satellite image DLL. You can see the startings of a t-storm line in NC IA. Lots of clouds here still. It'll probably never completely clear out tonight. Little bit of cooler air working in north of Milwaukee. Only 55° in Grafton. That's what you call a hell of an outflow boundary. Kills us often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Little bit of cooler air working in north of Milwaukee. Only 55° in Grafton. Correction - old observation. Low 60s though in Port Washington. Classic...probably still 2-3 feet of glacier on top of Mt. Cromartie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 That's what you call a hell of an outflow boundary. Kills us often. tried to warn you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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