TimChgo9 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It looks the Slight Risk area reaches to about Route 39 and barely encompasses Rockford. My main concern is the areas in the Plains. It looks positively frightening for them over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It is looking very likely that the midwest and great plains will see major severe weather, with the likelihood of strong long track tornado in Kansas and Oklahoma. Many of the tornado may be wedge tornado, which can stay on the ground for an hour or more and be a half mile to mile wide. As a now saturday looks to be the worst of the two days. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already put a "high" for severe weather on saturday. They use the "high" risk about 5 times a year. Last time the high risk was included in a day 2 outlook there were over 90 tornado reports. This truely could be a historic April 14th, especially with the highest risk area in the most populated section of Kansas and Oklahoma much more on the midwest at: http://midwestweathertalk.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It is looking very likely that the midwest and great plains will see major severe weather, with the likelihood of strong long track tornado in Kansas and Oklahoma. Many of the tornado may be wedge tornado, which can stay on the ground for an hour or more and be a half mile to mile wide. As a now saturday looks to be the worst of the two days. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already put a "high" for severe weather on saturday. They use the "high" risk about 5 times a year. Last time the high risk was included in a day 2 outlook there were over 90 tornado reports. This truely could be a historic April 14th, especially with the highest risk area in the most populated section of Kansas and Oklahoma much more on the midwest at: http://midwestweathertalk.blogspot.com I was going to ask what people thought about the chance of a moderate risk by Sunday, and your blog answered that. Shear tomorrow in the Plains will be pretty similar to what it will be in the S GL on Sunday, and with temps likely reaching the mid to upper 70s, instability would probably be greater than the GFS is indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Only danger or severe around MKE will be my beer farts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Only danger or severe around MKE will be my beer farts. Duly noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 MPX with an interesting little snippet... THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE EVENING WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS ON SEVERAL SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MN. RECENT RESEARCH DONE HERE BY DEVINNY AND HULTQUIST SHOW THAT THIS TYPE OF UPPER PATTERN (SOUTHWEST FLOW ARCHETYPE) WAS THE ONLY ONE THAT HAD STRONG NIGHTTIME TORNADOES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORE DISTRESSING IS WATCHING THE CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS. YESTERDAY THE NUMBER 5 ANALOG WAS MARCH 29 1998. TODAY THIS ANALOG HAS MOVED TO NUMBER 3. HENCE...SATURDAY NIGHT IS AN INTENSE PERIOD OF INTEREST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Looking like rain and some thunder around NE IL at this point. The main activity appears to go from W IL through C WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Will be leaving around 1pm tomorrow for western Iowa/eastern Nebraska. Don't like getting such a late start, but unfortunately I don't have a choice lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Will be leaving around 1pm tomorrow for western Iowa/eastern Nebraska. Don't like getting such a late start, but unfortunately I don't have a choice lol. Good luck and stay safe! I think you will have better luck there than those who are traveling to OKC, and it's a shorter drive for you. The recent SREF (15z) has a small oval of 60% tor values on its tornado ingredients map that passes right through or near Omaha, I'll post it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Was just going through the NWS site for my forecast office. (KLOT) This is from their latest AFD.... ON SUNDAY...AS THE STRONG ~990 MB SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...THE CWA WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER WISCONSIN. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A FASTER TIMING OF THE EJECTION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...WITH THE GFS STILL THE FASTEST. PREFER THE NAM AS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH DID TREND FASTER FROM ITS 00Z RUN. I SUSPECT THAT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING CONVECTION AND THUS CLOUDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING SHRA/TSRA DEPARTS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...SO WILL HAVE A PERIOD DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER POPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EVEN THIS SKY COVER MAY BE OVERDONE...AS MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE EXHIBITING STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS...WHICH WOULD ONLY BE POSSIBLE WITH GOOD SUNSHINE. +14C OR SO AT H85 AND AFOREMENTIONED GOOD MIXING UP TO 850 MB WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...AND A LOWERING OF DEW POINTS FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TWO MAJOR CONCERNS ON SUNDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH WINDS. THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE EXTREME WIND FIELDS...WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 100-120 KT/80-100 KT/55-65 KT JETS PUNCHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH. AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT NEARS LATE SUNDAY...WITH ASCENT AIDED BY DIFFLUENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER JET LEVELS...TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SUCH EXTREME WIND PROFILES ALOFT...THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE EXTREME BY LATE DAY SUNDAY...OR >70 KT 0-6KM AND 40-50 KT 0-1 KM. ADDING TO THE CONCERN IS THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL CAPE PROGGED BY THE 12Z NAM TODAY...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENEIS. THUS WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATION THAT OVERALL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT UNDERDONE BY GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED THOUGHTS...TSRA THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. CANNOT RULE OUT SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONVECTIVE MODE REMAIN DISCRETE...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WHETHER CONVECTIVE MODE IS DISCRETE OR LINEAR. TRACK OF LOW ON LATEST 12Z ECMWF ALSO FEATURES MORE BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS FROM THE AFTERNOON TO THE EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST TO MORE DUE SOUTH...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL TURNING OF WINDS/WIND SHEAR. WITH OR WITHOUT BACKING...HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE. GREATEST TIME OF CONCERN WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING WHEN DEW POINTS THAT MIXED OUT SHOULD CREEP BACK UP AGAIN AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG FRONT. It looks like the possiblity exist for a very windy Sunday with some storms expected by early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Haha I'm staying out of Wisconsin for good after April 10th last year. I've never been so frustrated during a chase. We went in knowing the terrain would be an issue (trees/hills). I could deal with that, but the road network over southwest Wisconsin was extremely frustrating. Not many east/west/north/south roads. The road network looked like a plate of spaghetti lol. You can thank the topography/geology for the "spaghetti" roads! Glaciers failed to make that area nice and flat like the rest of the region, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 MPX with an interesting little snippet... THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE EVENING WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS ON SEVERAL SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MN. RECENT RESEARCH DONE HERE BY DEVINNY AND HULTQUIST SHOW THAT THIS TYPE OF UPPER PATTERN (SOUTHWEST FLOW ARCHETYPE) WAS THE ONLY ONE THAT HAD STRONG NIGHTTIME TORNADOES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORE DISTRESSING IS WATCHING THE CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS. YESTERDAY THE NUMBER 5 ANALOG WAS MARCH 29 1998. TODAY THIS ANALOG HAS MOVED TO NUMBER 3. HENCE...SATURDAY NIGHT IS AN INTENSE PERIOD OF INTEREST. That analog storm the mentioned was the Comfrey/St Peter event to see what happened here is the link.. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=1998mar29radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I am also concerned about Sunday morning to early afternoon for the Twin Cities metro. Per the ECMWF dew points will raise to the 60+ range with a 200mb jet at 90-120knt out of the sw, and at 500mb around 50knts again out of the sw . There is some diffluence over the metro at this time, and this could move into west central WI during the mid afternoon hours. My best guess is that the greatest threat will be severe winds with large hail possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 You can thank the topography/geology for the "spaghetti" roads! Glaciers failed to make that area nice and flat like the rest of the region, lol! It certainly makes it easy to defeat the common argument "Wisconsin is boring and flat", but I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Bow- Schlitz will do that to you. The roads around here are great, if you aren't chasing tornadoes. It sucks. Getting a clear view of any distance is really difficult with all the trees, hills, valleys, ravines, knolls, nobs, ridges... I personally would get up on the bluff and stay up high if you can... a lot better view if you get out of the river valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Good luck and stay safe! I think you will have better luck there than those who are traveling to OKC, and it's a shorter drive for you. The recent SREF (15z) has a small oval of 60% tor values on its tornado ingredients map that passes right through or near Omaha, I'll post it soon. Thanks. Initiation looks a little further west on the 00z NAM and long range RUC/RAP, so we're gonna have to really haul ass to get out there before dark. Might only have an hour long window of daylight by the time we get out there but I guess it's worth a shot lol. Thinking somewhere in the Lincoln to Grand Island area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 seems like a waste of time for maybe an hr of daylight. But just like hunting, you have to be out there anytime you can for any amount of time to have a chance at the prize. Good luck and have a safe chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 We're not in the zone here, but stay safe all those who are. I sure hope we get some of the rain anyway from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Thanks. Initiation looks a little further west on the 00z NAM and long range RUC/RAP, so we're gonna have to really haul ass to get out there before dark. Might only have an hour long window of daylight by the time we get out there but I guess it's worth a shot lol. Thinking somewhere in the Lincoln to Grand Island area now. Wow, yeah that will be difficult to arrive before dark; isn't it a 5-6 hour drive? That would mean arrival around 7, maybe only a half hour of daylight, perhaps an hour if lucky. Might be better off risking being too far ahead of the storms and setting shop in W Iowa just east of the NE/IA border. OAX is expecting two rounds of storms anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Erie to Grand Island is close to 500 miles? Better keep it pegged to about a buck o five across Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Not sure if anyone's brought this up before, but the Sunday setup reminds me a lot of the 4/10/11 setup, especially the trough placement/orientation, the screaming wind fields, and the question marks regarding whether the surface winds will be backed enough the further south you go. Much like that day, I see Wisconsin having the biggest tornado threat given the backed surface winds and higher 0-3 km CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM still has a well mixed boundary layer with little/no CIN well after dark Sunday night, meaning that some tornado threat could continue well into the overnight hours. Speed shear is crazy strong but directional shear could be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Not sure if anyone's brought this up before, but the Sunday setup reminds me a lot of the 4/10/11 setup, especially the trough placement/orientation, the screaming wind fields, and the question marks regarding whether the surface winds will be backed enough the further south you go. Much like that day, I see Wisconsin having the biggest tornado threat given the backed surface winds and higher 0-3 km CAPE. Yeah someone brought up that event earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Looks like my chase is off now. Got word a bit earlier that the power has been down since 6pm, and the backup generators have failed as well. This will put us way behind tomorrow so any prospects of escaping early are off. 2012 is not off to a good start for me to say the least. Responsibility SUCKS sometimes. Sunday's setup still looks just okay to me. Instability is still a bit lacking in my mind. Parts of Wisconsin look a bit better, but no way I'm heading up there. Bulk/speed shear is fantastic, but directional shear is pretty marginal as well IMO. Not much turning in the lower 1-3km. I may end up sitting out on the whole weekend. Needless to say I'm not very happy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Sometimes things happen for a reason? Still lots severe season ahead and with any luck maybe close to your backyard will wet your severe weenie some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Regarding Sunday I think I'm more concerned about the apparent lack of good directional shear than instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 New day 2 outlook maintains a fairly small 15% area in WI/nearby. Kinda surprised by that. Even with uncertainties about storm mode/tornado potential the setup looks better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Still just a straight-up 15% risk for WI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 New day 2 outlook maintains a fairly small 15% area in WI/nearby. Kinda surprised by that. Even with uncertainties about storm mode/tornado potential the setup looks better than that. Yeah I am not following the logic on this one at all. I thought for sure we'd see 30% risks and maybe even hatched areas up in WI. Even the discussion part mentions the risk as being pretty good yet only 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 doughnut hole qpf on the models getting even bigger for no meaningful rain here it seems. what once looked like multiple rain chances is turning in to a spit in the bucket event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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