Geos Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 They were all over April 10 last year and then it busted. I bet we see the strong wording show up in tomorrow's afternoon afds. Des Moines sounded almost scared... Given how this spring has played out so far, I don't blame them for sounding that way. I'm sure will see some strong wording (if parameters still look the same or better) by this time tomorrow if not before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Sunday, IMO, is a scarier setup than 10 April 2011 for nrn IL/ern IA/srn WI because the forcing and focus for convection is much stronger/more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I didn't mean to start or get into an argument. Sorry. You didn't, I just wanted to use that as an example that hyping an event once in awhile doesn't preclude an office from being conservative overall. However, I probably overstated my case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Sunday, IMO, is a scarier setup than 10 April 2011 for nrn IL/ern IA/srn WI because the forcing and focus for convection is much stronger/more favorable. Looking increasingly likely that there will be some strong language in the Day 3 SWO tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS SAT NGT THROUGH SUN POSSIBLY SUN NGT AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS STEADILY INCREASED. This is a comment from LOT's Thursday evening AFD update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Looking increasingly likely that there will be some strong language in the Day 3 SWO tonight. Agreed completely, expecting a hatched slight tonight, can't rule out a mod risk, considering that the set-up, as Tony alluded to, looks even more impressive than 3 days before 4/10/11, which got a day 3 mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Looking pretty impressive on the 00z NAM...gotta love the H5 shear vectors and the 110+ kt H5 jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised to see areas of Illinois included in some kind of risk area on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised to see areas of Illinois included in some kind of risk area on Monday... Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Sunday. I meant to say areas "east" of Illinois. Woops...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 As ominous as it looks for N Illinois and S Wisconsin, it looks even worse for Central into NC Wisconsin. SigTor values and Craven Sig Severe are pretty high there. ML Cape is not so great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Looking at some of the NAM forecast soundings for N IL for Sunday, there's not a ton of low level turning but the flow is very strong with 50-55 kt winds progged down to 900 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 With the position of the sfc low, I'd venture that the sfc backing is being underdone by the NAM, especially closer to the triple point. Wouldn't take much of a back to the SE to raise LL directional shear through the roof given the progged LLJ strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 With the position of the sfc low, I'd venture that the sfc backing is being underdone by the NAM, especially closer to the triple point. Wouldn't take much of a back to the SE to raise LL directional shear through the roof given the progged LLJ strength. It could be underdone but the sfc low is relatively steady or filling slightly later Sunday, so I don't think it's necessarily an automatic assumption that the directional shear is underplayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I don't say it often but some of these soundings are kinda scary for Sunday with some minor tweaks to instability/low level shear. I'm not quite at March 2 level of concern but not too far behind at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I don't say it often but some of these soundings are kinda scary for Sunday with some minor tweaks to instability/low level shear. I'm not quite at March 2 level of concern but not too far behind at this point. Obviously pretty pointless at this time, but where do they look the worst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I don't say it often but some of these soundings are kinda scary for Sunday with some minor tweaks to instability/low level shear. I'm not quite at March 2 level of concern but not too far behind at this point. Instability is pretty meager to me on both the NAM and GFS. Definitely want to see that bump up a few notches IMHO. With such strong shear profiles updrafts will get pushed over pretty easily with such meager instability. The NAM is bad, but the GFS is just plain pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Instability is pretty meager to me on both the NAM and GFS. Definitely want to see that bump up a few notches IMHO. With such strong shear profiles updrafts will get pushed over pretty easily with such meager instability. The NAM is bad, but the GFS is just plain pathetic. Both models have 60s/70s temps and 60s dews in the warm sector in association with solid LL theta-e inflow, in addition to steep lapse rates with H7 temps lower than 5 degrees and H5 temps less than -10 degrees. There also doesn't look to be any overwhelming signal for mixing either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I don't say it often but some of these soundings are kinda scary for Sunday with some minor tweaks to instability/low level shear. I'm not quite at March 2 level of concern but not too far behind at this point. A look at the new GFS shows that this has everything going for it, except instability is in question. But I find it hard to believe there won't be more CAPE in the warm sector than what's being shown on the models. Looks like more turning down low on the GFS than on the NAM. 0-1km shear 40-50 kt by 00z, with 0-1km SRH ~400- ~500. Minus the lack of instability, this sounding from Rockford, IL is really insane at hour 72 (7pm Sunday evening) http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=GFS&STATIONID=KRFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Instability is pretty meager to me on both the NAM and GFS. Definitely want to see that bump up a few notches IMHO. With such strong shear profiles updrafts will get pushed over pretty easily with such meager instability. The NAM is bad, but the GFS is just plain pathetic. lol, GFS does stink for the most part but I disagree some about the NAM. It's not great but I don't know if I'd call it bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 lol, GFS does stink for the most part but I disagree some about the NAM. It's not great but I don't know if I'd call it bad. The low-level thermos are much more realistic on the NAM than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 lol, GFS does stink for the most part but I disagree some about the NAM. It's not great but I don't know if I'd call it bad. Don't mean to sound like a negative Nancy, but I went back through the last 6-8 GFS runs for the same time period (00z sunday evening). GFS has been steadily lowering instability on each successive run. Not a good trend obviously lol. I hate to sound so negative, but I always like to find anything that could negate a potential setup. As we all know instability is the foundation of a good setup. To me this foundation is in question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Obviously pretty pointless at this time, but where do they look the worst? Right now I'd say the highest threat is west of you but not by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Don't mean to sound like a negative Nancy, but I went back through the last 6-8 GFS runs for the same time period (00z sunday evening). GFS has been steadily lowering instability on each successive run. Not a good trend obviously lol. I hate to sound so negative, but I always like to find anything that could negate a potential setup. As we all know instability is the foundation of a good setup. To me this foundation is in question... Shear is actually the foundation of a good setup. Instability is the frame. You can live in a one-story home... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Don't mean to sound like a negative Nancy, but I went back through the last 6-8 GFS runs for the same time period (00z sunday evening). GFS has been steadily lowering instability on each successive run. Not a good trend obviously lol. I hate to sound so negative, but I always like to find anything that could negate a potential setup. As we all know instability is the foundation of a good setup. To me this foundation is in question... That's not a bad approach. But the only way I see the GFS thermos verifying is if the area is extremely socked in with clouds. Like big time. We've seen it underdo temps time and time again in setups with deep southerly flow so it's a bit hard to trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 ...and if you back that up earlier there are some areas of nice 0-3km CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 ...and if you back that up earlier there are some areas of nice 0-3km CAPE. If you figure that you typically look for ~100J/kg or higher for significant tornado development and your shear vectors will be fairly perpendicular to the front...yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 There's like almost no CINH on the NAM even well after dark Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Shear is actually the foundation of a good setup. Instability is the frame. You can live in a one-story home... I guess the way I think of it is you can have an awesome shear profile with zero instability in winter, but it won't net you any convection. Some of us have posted hodos/skews in the winter as a joke mentioning "if we just had some instability" lol. I see what you're saying though. They're both obviously extremely important. Anyway, we still have several model runs to go, but the bottom line is I would like to see a higher degree of instability given such a strongly sheared environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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