Indystorm Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 I think we are close enough now to begin to raise consideration of possible svr in the area from Quincy to Quad Cities to Chicago on Saturday evening and in Illinois and Indiana on Sunday. Obviously strong concerns exist Sat for a plains tornado outbreak at least per European model, but as I look at GFS parameters in today's (Tues) a.m. and afternoon runs I am getting concerned for Illinois. Temps around 70, dp low 60's, CAPE 1500. low LCL's and minimal CIN, -5 LI, 80-90 knots at 500 mb and 50 knot 850 begin to raise my concerns. Tonight's run and SPC extended outlook Wed. will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 I think we are close enough now to begin to raise consideration of possible svr in the area from Quincy to Quad Cities to Chicago on Saturday evening and in Illinois and Indiana on Sunday. Obviously strong concerns exist Sat for a plains tornado outbreak at least per European model, but as I look at GFS parameters in today's (Tues) a.m. and afternoon runs I am getting concerned for Illinois. Temps around 70, dp low 60's, CAPE 1500. low LCL's and minimal CIN, -5 LI, 80-90 knots at 500 mb and 50 knot 850 begin to raise my concerns. Tonight's run and SPC extended outlook Wed. will be very interesting. Warm front might produce in a big way for IL/WI on Saturday. Early to tell specifics but boy does it need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Any good ideas how far the warm front will lift north? Local stations have been saying up to the Wisconsin state line. Usually I don't see severe weather around here until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Warm front might produce in a big way for IL/WI on Saturday. Early to tell specifics but boy does it need to be watched. Yeah I am certainly watching this area for Sat Night into Sunday both for severe weather and because I work Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Hope we get into some of this here in Michigan. Boy we're dry lately. Had snowshowers all morning today but so light no melted accumulation, not even .01" in the rain gage. http://saginawcountyweather.webs.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 00z GFS is more unstable with more sfc backing in the warm sector along the warm frontal zone in IA and IL Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 00z GFS is more unstable with more sfc backing in the warm sector along the warm frontal zone in IA and IL Saturday. I'm supposed to be at Skilling's seminar on Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 I'm supposed to be at Skilling's seminar on Saturday... I hear ya. I have stuff going on at work this week (including sat) that I can't get out of. Timing is killing me this season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 I'm supposed to be at Skilling's seminar on Saturday... I have 3 choices on Saturday, paintball, FermiLab, or chasing with a coworker. Having never gone storm chasing before, leaning toward that, but wondering if we'll get called into work on a day off if the threat is close enough to the LOT cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Maybe it'd be a good idea to bump FermiLab and similar type events into the winter months in the future. Makes sense as it would give severe weather enthusiasts something to look forward to during the winter, and also helps get you mentally prepared for the upcoming severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 How far east may this severe threat exist? GFS looks like it puts Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and maybe even the East Coast in the target zone sometime next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Yeah, i'm a bit concerned. What states seem to be in the worst shape for Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 From the Central/Western forum regarding the early weekend threat. Here is an overlay I have of 0-4 km theta-e lapse rates and 300 mb jet speed. Generally speaking the overlap in the two is good for severe weather. This is the 11/06z GFS run, and it is the first to really show the overlap along the warm front in Iowa into Illinois. Between 70 and 90 knots on the southern fringe of the main jet core over the top of -4 to -5 deg/km would be more than sufficient for warm frontal action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 If it's worth it I'd skip Fermilab on Saturday to chase but still too early to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 12z GFS certainly blows up convection of some sort late Saturday. Will wait a bit until the severe parameters come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 12z GFS looks pretty good in warm frontal zone into northern IL, LI's below -5 in NW IL, CAPE over 1000 J/kg, more than sufficient deep layer and low level shear, nice backing of winds from 850 down to surface. http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=GFS&STATIONID=KMLI. Really impressive hodograph at hour 84 at Moline, and a lot of the parameters on the sounding look good, though the warm nose at 750 mb and the lack of low level CAPE could be problematic. Sunday looks interesting for severe prospects along the warm front as well on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 11, 2012 Author Share Posted April 11, 2012 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUGGESTED ATTM WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST INTO AREA FROM SW CONUS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND 65 TO 75 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ORGANIZED AREAS OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO RESULT IN DAILY MOSTLY MODERATE RAIN TOTALS. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST RAINS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY WITH SURFACE LOW ARRIVING FROM WEST WITH GREATEST FORCING. MINS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. POPS...MOSTLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OF 60-70 PERCENT ATTM AS TIMING A LINGERING QUESTION. PW VALUES OF ~1 UP TO 1.5 INCHES SUGGESTED FOR MODERATE TO LOWER END HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS EACH DAY UNTIL FRONT PASSES. KDVN afd this afternoon stresses heavy rain threat over the weekend and non severe t storms. Not sure I agree with that. Quad City sounding for Sat. evening posted in the central/west thread is rather ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Yeah the 18z looks like it blows up a big area of heavy rain/MCS sunday evening and moves it along the frontal boundary across this area as well as storms on the N/S front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I am becoming increasingly concerned for my area around Saturday/Sunday [Kankakee IL/KVAA area]...some impressive shear and low LCL's. The problem will be, for fans of severe weather, the CAPE. It's hard to predict about 3/4 days out but I am watching intently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 I am becoming increasingly concerned for my area around Saturday/Sunday [Kankakee IL/KVAA area]...some impressive shear and low LCL's. The problem will be, for fans of severe weather, the CAPE. It's hard to predict about 3/4 days out but I am watching intently. Welcome to the board! I find this forum very helpful and informative for svr weather and winter storm discussions especially. With a scenario as complex and widespread geographically as this one is with multiple day concerns we will have to take it one day at a time since boundaries and mesoscale features won't be known almost till nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Welcome to the board! I find this forum very helpful and informative for svr weather and winter storm discussions especially. With a scenario as complex and widespread geographically as this one is with multiple day concerns we will have to take it one day at a time since boundaries and mesoscale features won't be known almost till nowcasting time. Thank you! And I was thinking about this being a possible nowcasting event. As a survivor of an EF-2 tornado in Richton Park [windows shaking, apartments demolished within walking distance of me, freight train noises] in 2008...tornadoes get me shaken up a bit. But I do like weather forecasting. Back ON topic, I do find it a bit of a relief that the SPC hasn't had us in risk areas [so far] for days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 68° for Saturday's forecast here with a 60% chance of storms during the day, then 70% chance that night. Always cool to watch a good lightning storm at night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Definitely a conditional threat along the I-80 corridor from Iowa into northern Illinois Saturday. Warm front conditional threats are very hard to forecast though. Won't really know how this will all pan out until we see things play out Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Almost all of Iowa, NW Illinois, and much of southern Wisconsin in the Day 3 Slight, and some pretty strong wording too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa....k/day3otlk.html Almost all of Iowa, NW Illinois, and much of southern Wisconsin in the Day 3 Slight, and some pretty strong wording too. Day 3 mod for Oklahoma. wow. Guess I was not paying much attention to that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Here is the projected location of the low pressure in the Great Lakes for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I see I could get into some heavy much needed rain this weeken. Hope so. http://saginawcountyweather.webs.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 If it's worth it I'd skip Fermilab on Saturday to chase but still too early to decide. I heard they are going to be using Skype to communicate live with chasers in the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Now MKX is starting to pinpoint the potential for severe on April 15 (my birthday), as well as a minor threat on the 14th, primarily in SW and SC Wisconsin and N Illinois. I can't remember ever having severe on my birthday (although plenty of warm days in the 70s and 80s in the past). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Sunday's dynamics make me want to faint... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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