CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 You wanted a drought Kevin. There's only one person in this world who has the power and authority to exercise this demon from the good people of SNE. One person who dares to slay the hot and dry beast. He is summoned. Just play this and picture Steve flying around filling up reservoirs and streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Kind of surprising you're not cautious..the one time you probably should be and your're balls out on table Well I'm not saying everyone is getting 2-3". But hey an inch will help and do a lot. I actually feel pretty confident that someone in western areas and NY state may get 2-3"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Kev I feel good about a widespread 0.5-1.5" for now. Heaviest possibly in western areas. Still early and things may move around, so not entirely bullish for this area, but an inch will help if we get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Well I'm not saying everyone is getting 2-3". But hey an inch will help and do a lot. I actually feel pretty confident that someone in western areas and NY state may get 2-3"+. Yeah I think when push comes to shove most of the 1+ falls out to the west of SNE.. An inch would be great..but I still see many of us getting less than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Kev, you still thinking all SNE climo stations get under 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Kev, you still thinking all SNE climo stations get under 1"? Of the 4 major ones..I think maybe ORH has the best chance of 1+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Well I'm not saying everyone is getting 2-3". But hey an inch will help and do a lot. I actually feel pretty confident that someone in western areas and NY state may get 2-3"+. That'll be awesome if it play out. Maybe my grass will grow. Or get washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Yeah I think when push comes to shove most of the 1+ falls out to the west of SNE.. An inch would be great..but I still see many of us getting less than that Well this is the type of deal that dumps and inch in 2-3 hrs easily, so it's kind of early to nail down jackpot areas..especially when the focal point may be in a narrow area. My guess is western areas and NY state too, but models eventually shift this east and it becomes a WCB type deal like Ryan said. Besides I don't need to jackpot, just want rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Of the 4 major ones..I think maybe ORH has the best chance of 1+ Thoughts for BDR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Thoughts for BDR? They have been ceded to NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I'd say the odds of BDR/BDL getting >1" are decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Thoughts for BDR? For the Eastern NYC locales < 1 inch..for the western NYC locales 1+ like west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 What a beautiful week, mid spring can be the best time of the year. October type low humidity, highs near 70, cool nights. Perfect for outside work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 What a beautiful week, mid spring can be the best time of the year. October type low humidity, highs near 70, cool nights. Perfect for outside work. Agreed. I saw your anti-Ryan rant the other day because of my szygy/sandbag quip... made me smile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Well this is the type of deal that dumps and inch in 2-3 hrs easily, so it's kind of early to nail down jackpot areas..especially when the focal point may be in a narrow area. My guess is western areas and NY state too, but models eventually shift this east and it becomes a WCB type deal like Ryan said. Besides I don't need to jackpot, just want rain. yeah i don't think the idea of heaviest west is bad at all...but that certainly doesn't mean we are left high and dry. ripping SSE LLJ, high pwat air, some elevated instability, good duration...all means jackpot in this could be several inches of rain easy...so missing out on the heaviest axis could (should?) still equate to >1". right now, i think of any spot in the region, my area probably has the highest likelihood of falling short of 1" given the current look of things. but even .5 to .75 will seem like a landfalling typhoon in this pattern. if things shift s and e some and the surface boundary is displaced further south i might make out better. details details i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Agreed. I saw your anti-Ryan rant the other day because of my szygy/sandbag quip... made me smile its all good bro, just bustin. I know you guys like to have me for breakfast. Hope you are happy in your new house. Worked outside yesterday in the desert, lots done but man dust and pollen city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 yeah i don't think the idea of heaviest west is bad at all...but that certainly doesn't mean we are left high and dry. ripping SSE LLJ, high pwat air, some elevated instability, good duration...all means jackpot in this could be several inches of rain easy...so missing out on the heaviest axis could (should?) still equate to >1". right now, i think of any spot in the region, my area probably has the highest likelihood of falling short of 1" given the current look of things. but even .5 to .75 will seem like a landfalling typhoon in this pattern. if things shift s and e some and the surface boundary is displaced further south i might make out better. details details i guess. Kevin was right the other day talking about how as this evolves some of us could be looking at tropical blue sky for a while before the axis shifts east, although models will change it appears some drought relief is on its way. I think everyone here is rooting for rain, nothing positive or good about a drought record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Days and days of rain. It's about time...all this nice sunny weather is making me happier than I should be this time of year. Saturday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The euro is 2+ for almost everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 We really need this storm to overperform..if not you can alredy see the torch/ridge/dry pattern rebuilding the middle of next week onwards into May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The euro is 2+ for almost everyone Runnels in the fresh mulch...watching the little wood chips run down the driveway into the street. Disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 yeah i don't think the idea of heaviest west is bad at all...but that certainly doesn't mean we are left high and dry. ripping SSE LLJ, high pwat air, some elevated instability, good duration...all means jackpot in this could be several inches of rain easy...so missing out on the heaviest axis could (should?) still equate to >1". right now, i think of any spot in the region, my area probably has the highest likelihood of falling short of 1" given the current look of things. but even .5 to .75 will seem like a landfalling typhoon in this pattern. if things shift s and e some and the surface boundary is displaced further south i might make out better. details details i guess. Yeah I'm interested to see how this evolves. At least it's something fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Yeah I'm interested to see how this evolves. At least it's something fun to track. Droughts are the worst kind of extreme weather. There's nothing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 even if the storm does track inland, we could see that SE fetch pull in some moisture off the ocean. don't get me wrong, if I had to place my bets right now, I'd lead towards lesser amounts, especially for the eastern half of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Droughts are the worst kind of extreme weather. There's nothing to track. Just imagine working in the Phoenix market..."well folks, looks like we have another 30 days of dry weather, though next Thursday may see an additional cloud or two." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Droughts are the worst kind of extreme weather. There's nothing to track. This is the first severe drought I can recall us having. Obviously I'm sure we've had them.. When was the last time we were in a "severe drought"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 yeah i don't think the idea of heaviest west is bad at all...but that certainly doesn't mean we are left high and dry. ripping SSE LLJ, high pwat air, some elevated instability, good duration...all means jackpot in this could be several inches of rain easy...so missing out on the heaviest axis could (should?) still equate to >1". right now, i think of any spot in the region, my area probably has the highest likelihood of falling short of 1" given the current look of things. but even .5 to .75 will seem like a landfalling typhoon in this pattern. if things shift s and e some and the surface boundary is displaced further south i might make out better. details details i guess. Totally agree - with these setups, even though the best forcing is confined along the trough axis to the west, you oftentimes see batches of showers develop and ride the SSE flow. These can be tough to pin down... but this is a long duration event bound to contain some surprises in the "dry" NE quadrant. Or, it can be hours to sea salt drizzle and fog... who knows. I am, however, quite confident in a growing probability of drenching rains (3-4"+) in climatologically favored areas - Litchfield Hills/Berks/Greens/Catskills/NNJ & EPA uplands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 This is the first severe drought I can recall us having. Obviously I'm sure we've had them.. When was the last time we were in a "severe drought"? For 2 or more consecutive months... Jan-April 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 For 2 or more consecutive months... Jan-April 2002. I don't remember that. Same timeframe as this one..Has this 4 month period been drier than that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 I think the last time the SNE had a prolonged drought was in the 30s and/or 40s. Prolonged meaning a dry stretch of a year or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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