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Heart of April banter and discussion.


CoastalWx

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May not sound remarkably scientific ...but, phasing - lack thereof - has been an issue for months. For whatever reason, the northern and southern streams just can't seem to find the right frequencies for these waves to constructively interfere. The end result has been streams "out running" one another - hasn't that been a repeating theme?

Of course it has, and now ...we have runs showing the same damn thing. Kinda of hard to go against when considering...

rumor has it the northern and southern streams are going through marriage counseling. Everyone seems pretty optimistic they'll work it out soon.

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Euro ensembles look a lot different than the op. Looks like they at least try to phase nrn and srn streams. Looks more like GFS. Dumping for NY state and western/northern NE. Would think pretty wet in ern areas too, but not like further NW. This is for now anyways, so could change.

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Up my way gfs has marginally okay BL temps and -3/-4C h8s, maybe enough for some after dark accum Sat and Sun nights. (If the model verifies - a real big if.)

Of course, I no sooner post the above but the next run turns everything upside down. H8s jump 10C (-4 to +6) for my area) and some incredible rains for the IZG-RUM corridor, including 4"+ in 18hr Monday night into Tues, after two days of steady rain. Reminds me of 1998, when a moderately dry stretch May into June turned - in two days - to the Sandy River's highest recorded no-snowmelt flood flow; amazing what 7" rain in about 36 hr will do.

And snow is still in the picture, farther north but more of it, with h8s -6/-8 in N.Maine, and the gfs clown map showing 18"+ for some areas up there.

1-2" rain over a couple days here would be just right, but maybe these systems will chase each other thru here without doing more than wetting the dust a bit.

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You wanted a drought Kevin. There's only one person in this world who has the power and authority to exercise this demon from the good people of SNE. One person who dares to slay the hot and dry beast. He is summoned.

post-33-0-99962800-1334695611.jpg

I never said i wanted a drought..I just forecast it..Somehow..we'll get bent over the table with the system early next week. I have a bad feeling about it.

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Devastating

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1117 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

...U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

SYNOPSIS...

THIS IS THE FIRST DROUGHT STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA IN 2012. THESE STATEMENTS PERTAIN TO

CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST NEW

HAMPSHIRE...ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY...ALL

OF RHODE ISLAND...AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS RHODE

ISLAND...THE EASTERN HALF OF MASSACHUSETTS...AND MOST OF NORTHERN

CONNECTICUT...WITH MODERATE DROUGHT OVER WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND

SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAYS TO DEFINE

DROUGHT. CURRENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN LARGELY DRIVEN BY

METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN

APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF OF NORMAL SINCE JANUARY OF 2012. THE

RESPONSE IN RIVERS AND STREAMS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT...BUT

RESERVOIRS WERE STILL AT NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...AND

VEGETATION WAS STILL ONLY BEGINNING TO COME OUT.

AS OF APRIL 15...THERE HAD BEEN NO STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS IN

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

THE METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT HAS RESULTED IN PERIODS OF VERY HIGH

FIRE DANGER IN RECENT WEEKS. IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS SMALL POND

LEVELS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED. ALTHOUGH SOIL

MOISTURE IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...VEGETATION IS

STILL ONLY BEGINNING TO COME OUT SO SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS

AS A RESULT OF THE DRY CONDITIONS HAD NOT YET MATERIALIZED AS OF MID

APRIL.

THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY DECLINE IN SOIL

MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS. MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT ARE GAGED BY

THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY HAVE BEEN INDICATING RECORD LOW

FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GROUND WATER LEVELS VARY ACROSS THE

REGION...SOME ARE STILL WITHIN A NORMAL RANGE...OTHERS ARE WELL

BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...BUT GAGED WELLS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING A

GRADUAL AND STEADY DECLINE.

AS OF THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF RESERVOIRS IN

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WERE AT NORMAL TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR

THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL

RAINFALL DURING LAST AUGUST THROUGH NOVEMBER...WHICH SERVED TO FILL

RESERVOIRS...AND ALSO SENT RIVERS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS GROUND

WATER...TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH APRIL 15...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN 6 TO 8

INCHES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND

SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND...PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES BELOW

NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL

PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

FROM APRIL 17 TO APRIL 22...NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. THERE

ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY

AND MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE

EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR APRIL

23 TO 29...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH

BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

AS OF APRIL 15...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL

FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GROUNDWATER VARIED FROM NORMAL TO WELL BELOW

NORMAL. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAIN...DETERIORATION COULD CONTINUE IN

THE FORM OF LOWERING RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS...AND LOWERING GROUND

WATER LEVELS.

ALSO IF THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACCOMPANIED BY ABOVE NORMAL

TEMPERATURES...AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS MAY INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF

THE NEXT 30 DAYS AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS.

AS OF EARLY TO MID APRIL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF RESERVOIRS WERE AT

NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RESIDENTS

SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS AND STAY TUNED

TO THIS EVOLVING SITUATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY MAY 16 OR SOONER IF

NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

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Euro ensembles look a lot different than the op. Looks like they at least try to phase nrn and srn streams. Looks more like GFS. Dumping for NY state and western/northern NE. Would think pretty wet in ern areas too, but not like further NW. This is for now anyways, so could change.

But they are not as impressive as last night. Low is more strung out and less consolidated and the rainfall amounts depicted are half of what 0z was showing. Lots of members are definitely missing the phase at 12z when last night, the mean likely had the majority phasing, based on the more consolidated low and the much higher rainfall amounts shown.

But this will all be waffling daily, like you said.

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Unlike the rest of SNE, we wound up a few degrees below forecast with a high of 65° F at PSF. Currently 61°/29° with a nice brisk NW breeze. The temperature difference between here an the CT River Valley and CP today is about as large as I've ever seen it thanks to downsloping and compressional warming east of me. Even though ALB is about the same elevation as BDL, they're 10° cooler as they are not downsloping like areas to my east.

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Beautiful evening here in NNE. Temps around 60F at the parking lot, upper 40s at the summit in the sun. In the shade it felt closer to freezing as the snow was already firming up.

Man this beats going to the gym after work. Get out of work at 4pm, and be standing on top of the mountain at 5pm after a nice hour of exercise. The benefit is a nice long ski down to the car.

IMG_4816_edited-2.jpg

Snow is melting out now... south and west facing slopes are gone. This is northeast facing at 2,500ft and its melting quickly out of the woods. And to think this is only 500ft higher than Pete's worksites in Peru.

IMG_4790_edited-1.jpg

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