Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Always fun to see how fast the rivers run following prolonged heavy rain on the heels of a dry spell. The fact that this is long-duration is a real boon to moistening up the soil. Lots of time to soak in after the initial run-off. Nice day. 66/31, snug in my shawl. You're acting like days and days of soaking rains are coming lol..There's a real chance of nothing more than .5-1.0 in spots. Nothing has been decided one way or the other yet All winter you have a qpf worry..now in the midst of a damaging drought, your're throwing out inches of rain like Halloween candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Wow that 12z GFS is disgusting...3-6" widespread rain over 3 days, ending as a foot of snow Adirondacks, Greens, Berks at the higher elevations. That time around hour 174-186 is another massive upslope assisted with deformation crushing blue snow for the Green MTN Spine down into the Berks. Yea the signals are there bro, hope it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Anyone seen the 12Z Euro yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Anyone seen the 12Z Euro yet? stronger with the southern system, warmer out ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Pretty wet Sunday on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Pretty wet Sunday on the euro. Is Saturday dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 LOL 86 for the high at MVY. Torch award of the day. Crazy. Sitting outside having lunch right now and it's actually uncomfortable in the sun. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Euro keeps nrn and srn separate for now, but nrn stream digs significantly to the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Is Saturday dry? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Euro keeps nrn and srn separate for now, but nrn stream digs significantly to the se. Bye bye snow dreams up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Yep. Mulch day is Saturday. So good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 NRN and SRN stream will continue to give model headaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 if the southern feature were 6-12 hours faster, the euro would look close to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 You're acting like days and days of soaking rains are coming lol..There's a real chance of nothing more than .5-1.0 in spots. Nothing has been decided one way or the other yet All winter you have a qpf worry..now in the midst of a damaging drought, your're throwing out inches of rain like Halloween candy dude the drought is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 if the southern feature were 6-12 hours faster, the euro would look close to the gfs It will be interesting to see what ensembles do. It was a little faster than 00z, but also a bit west....well away from the offshore look at 00z, however no real phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 the southern system at least helps pump moisture into the front sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Bye bye snow dreams up north Hah it's a long shot...but I actually am not bothered that poor model isn't showing anything. The ECM has been atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Always fun to see how fast the rivers run following prolonged heavy rain on the heels of a dry spell. The fact that this is long-duration is a real boon to moistening up the soil. Lots of time to soak in after the initial run-off. Nice day. 66/31, snug in my shawl. Wow... 78.7 here... much higher than the 71 BOX had me getting Just had a great lunch at Johnson's Farm in Orange. Yum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I'm kind of with Kev on this one, see no reason this ends up any different than all the D4-5 fabled nostorms of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I'm kind of with Kev on this one, see no reason this ends up any different than all the D4-5 fabled nostorms of the winter. It's just something to talk about...sure it may not phase but it seems to be hinted at by models other than the ECM. Even .5-1" of QPF is a big win....doesn't have to be 3-6" like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I'm kind of with Kev on this one, see no reason this ends up any different than all the D4-5 fabled nostorms of the winter. I am riding the KFS for now, but hoping it is wrng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 I'm kind of with Kev on this one, see no reason this ends up any different than all the D4-5 fabled nostorms of the winter. It depends on how the two streams interact and there are a lot of moving parts with this so models will probably have issues for another 2 days or so. Either way a half inch would be a win in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I am riding the KFS for now, but hoping it is wrng KFS is for now cautious...5 -1.0 inch seems the way things look as of now. when in drought...go doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Euro keeps nrn and srn separate for now, but nrn stream digs significantly to the se. May not sound remarkably scientific ...but, phasing - lack thereof - has been an issue for months. For whatever reason, the northern and southern streams just can't seem to find the right frequencies for these waves to constructively interfere. The end result has been streams "out running" one another - hasn't that been a repeating theme? Of course it has, and now ...we have runs showing the same damn thing. Kinda of hard to go against when considering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 KFS is for now cautious...5 -1.0 inch seems the way things look as of now. when in drought...go doubt I would take .5 at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 May not sound remarkably scientific ...but, phasing - lack thereof - has been an issue for months. For whatever reason, the northern and southern streams just can't seem to find the right frequencies for these waves to constructively interfere. The end result has been streams "out running" one another - hasn't that been a repeating theme? Of course it has, and now ...we have runs showing the same damn thing. Kinda of hard to go against when considering... Yeah progressive nrn stream has hurt us I think during the winter. This looks like a complicated issue. If you believe the Canadian, it brings the ULL into the OV and had multiple rain episodes from weak lows moving up into SNE. I think models will struggle for a bit. I agree...the pattern has been to interfere with these streams phasing, but that's also a great ridge out west too. That may try to at least force the nrn stream to dig. I could see the euro and GFS messing around a bit over the next few days..probably a good time to see what ensembles do, since they are the go to tool in times like this...or at least maybe have the best guess for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 You're acting like days and days of soaking rains are coming lol..There's a real chance of nothing more than .5-1.0 in spots. Nothing has been decided one way or the other yet All winter you have a qpf worry..now in the midst of a damaging drought, your're throwing out inches of rain like Halloween candy LOL. It is kinda funny. But, an inch of rain over 36 hours is a heckuva lot better than an inch of rain in a passing thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 KFS is for now cautious...5 -1.0 inch seems the way things look as of now. when in drought...go doubt I think up to an inch of rain would be about right...that's a huge rainstorm compared to anything in the past 5 months. KFS surprisingly not going out on a limb. I would've expected that model to say 0.25" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 holy...IJD is 79/23 for a 12% RH! impressive!!! Groton still CT's warm spot at 81 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 holy...IJD is 79/23 for a 12% RH! impressive!!! Groton still CT's warm spot at 81 degrees. WOw--I thought my 67/27 was on the dry side...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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