Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 If you ignore the wire to wire torch the KFS called for in the first two weeks of April while the Euro correctly called for the big relaxation in the torch pattern. But I know the KFS has its own way of scoring skill. Was the first 15 days of April above normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 If you ignore the wire to wire torch the KFS called for in the first two weeks of April while the Euro correctly called for the big relaxation in the torch pattern. But I know the KFS has its own way of scoring skill. Missed you at the GTG Will. Thank god you've got such a steel trap for a memory and can keep Blizz from writing a revisionist history for, and I hestitate to even use this, the KFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Was the first 15 days of April above normal? Yes but not by much. It was actually almost dead on normal here if you go from 3/26-4/10. A far cry from the "continued torch" spilling over from mid March. I don't think you can in good conscience say we saw that pattern continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Yes but not by much. It was actually almost dead on normal here if you go from 3/26-4/10. A far cry from the "continued torch" spilling over from mid March. I don't think you can in good conscience say we saw that pattern continue. Can you remember many 5 plus month stretches of completely dull weather? Other than some high temps, virtually nada since Halloweenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 If you ignore the wire to wire torch the KFS called for in the first two weeks of April while the Euro correctly called for the big relaxation in the torch pattern. But I know the KFS has its own way of scoring skill. i think even including that hiccup, it has verified more correctly since the end of Feb. Of course it has no idea as to why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Yes but not by much. It was actually almost dead on normal here if you go from 3/26-4/10. A far cry from the "continued torch" spilling over from mid March. I don't think you can in good conscience say we saw that pattern continue. The KFS only operates in above normal during the warm season, and below normal (and/or snowy) in the cold season. Since we are in the warm season, that model doesn't recognize the difference between +35F and +1.5F. As long as there is a "+" sign in front of the departure, then its a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Can you remember many 5 plus month stretches of completely dull weather? Other than some high temps, virtually nada since Halloweenie You can probably take any of the '88-'89, '90-'91, or '91-'92 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 The KFS only operates in above normal during the warm season, and below normal (and/or snowy) in the cold season. Since we are in the warm season, that model doesn't recognize the difference between +35F and +1.5F. As long as there is a "+" sign in front of the departure, then its a torch. It only measures in absolutes. Black/white...no gray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 i think even including that hiccup, it has verified more correctly since the end of Feb. Of course it has no idea as to why... It is essentially the persistence forecasting... which does work in times like this. It just turns out of the weather that the model wants (warmer and drought) is the weather that has been persisting. Come October 15, the model switches into persistent cold & moist/snowy mode. But in all honesty, with 12 straight months of above normal weather at some sites, including BTV up here, it seems that forecasting continued above normal temperatures would be the safe way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 You can probably take any of the '88-'89, '90-'91, or '91-'92 winters. No coastals/ice storms/super cold spells for 3 years? Was 1989 the year with a good Thanksgiving storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 The KFS only operates in above normal during the warm season, and below normal (and/or snowy) in the cold season. Since we are in the warm season, that model doesn't recognize the difference between +35F and +1.5F. As long as there is a "+" sign in front of the departure, then its a torch. You getting ready for lifeguard duty..with no more snow or skiing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 No coastals/ice storms/super cold spells for 3 years? Was 1989 the year with a good Thanksgiving storm? Yes, the '89-'90 winter. I didn't include that one on the list though. That winter had some interesting events even if it wasnt that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 It is essentially the persistence forecasting... which does work in times like this. It just turns out of the weather that the model wants (warmer and drought) is the weather that has been persisting. Come October 15, the model switches into persistent cold & moist/snowy mode. But in all honesty, with 12 straight months of above normal weather at some sites, including BTV up here, it seems that forecasting continued above normal temperatures would be the safe way to go. Well, the KFS I think is more biased towards extremes of any type. But I think overall it has a cold, wet bias. Just not now due to persistence What would Don Kent think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Yes, the '89-'90 winter. I didn't include that one on the list though. That winter had some interesting events even if it wasnt that good. Ah, yes. Misread the post. Did Shrewsbury St lose power for long in the ice storm? This was brought up Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 It only measures in absolutes. Black/white...no gray I was trying to think though, when was the last time KFS called for a cold, chilly summer? Back in the day at the start of EUSWX, I'm pretty sure it was always colder than forecast all summer with record low departures expected and the like (such as using KTOLLA under the trees to verify temperatures instead of now using BDL). Then there was so summer the model just unexpectedly switched and starting spewing warmth from April 15 - October 15. It was a big change of pace. I still remember Ryan telling him that there's no way he is seeing low level lapse rates of 10F per 1,000ft when BDL was hitting 90F and TOL was apparently chilly at 79F. Ahhh how the times have changed. But Pete has now taken over that role Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 You getting ready for lifeguard duty..with no more snow or skiing? Haha yep... its melting faster than ever now. Time to switch to the Mountain Bike or trail running shoes in another week or two. I'm hoping to stretch the snow till May 1st but we'll see. The past two days of melt would make you proud dude, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Ah, yes. Misread the post. Did Shrewsbury St lose power for long in the ice storm? This was brought up Saturday. I'm not sure they lost power at all in the ice storm. If they did it was brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 KFS had a major software "upgrade". Runs on an enhanced TRS-80 III now after being on a Commodore PET for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I was trying to think though, when was the last time KFS called for a cold, chilly summer? Back in the day at the start of EUSWX, I'm pretty sure it was always colder than forecast all summer with record low departures expected and the like (such as using KTOLLA under the trees to verify temperatures instead of now using BDL). Then there was so summer the model just unexpectedly switched and starting spewing warmth from April 15 - October 15. It was a big change of pace. I still remember Ryan telling him that there's no way he is seeing low level lapse rates of 10F per 1,000ft when BDL was hitting 90F and TOL was apparently chilly at 79F. Ahhh how the times have changed. But Pete has now taken over that role Go back to eastern and read Kevin's posts from May/June/July of 2009...it was literally three straight months of predicting a huge heatwave right around the corner and every time we got 61F and rain and one of the coldest June/July couplets on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Go back to eastern and read Kevin's posts from May/June/July of 2009...it was literally three straight months of predicting a huge heatwave right around the corner and every time we got 61F and rain and one of the coldest June/July couplets on record. The old KFS was prone to latching on to one theme for too long. The new one is . ? ? Well, the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Go back to eastern and read Kevin's posts from May/June/July of 2009...it was literally three straight months of predicting a huge heatwave right around the corner and every time we got 61F and rain and one of the coldest June/July couplets on record. But didn't he used to wish for cold summers or at least post that way... like back in 2007 or was it always the hottest summer ever? I swear I remember him and Ryan bickering about lapse rates and how there's no way it could possibly be as cold as it is up on the hill there... sort of like what folks do to Pete these days, lol. There was one year when it went from using ORH, Union, and Tolland to verify summer temperatures to HFD and BDL down in death valley. What it makes me think of more is how long and how much time I've wasted lurking and posting on these boards, lol. Then there are the posters like me who never change and will continue to give everyone the most irrelevant information of whats happening on a large pile of rocks in northern Vermont 24/7 I swear I'll meet everyone some day and you all will be like ahhh so you're that nutcase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Wait a minute, wait a minute...... there are trout in NJ. Get outta here. Absolutely peter....some nice fresh water streams in nw jersey...trout season started 2 weeks ago....if i had my choice i would be fishing in PA or Upstate NY......but i can only play the cards i was delt peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 The damn things are out here tonight too. Man do I hate them. No leaf out here by any standard. Tinder dry in the forest behind the house. I had cleared out brush and had it sitting in the back of the truck for the last couple days. Went out after dinner to dump it in the woods and got swarmed. Left the windows open on the truck as I did so and the damn things took roost all over the windshield. Horrible stuff. Even some species of the Oaks leafed out here today. Amazing for 1 day I think it's your Lesco. No one else has any leaves. Either did you in your pictues yesterday. lol Still 73.4--bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 EC ens are cooler and wet on Sat afternoon compared to the op that is dry and 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 If you ignore the wire to wire torch the KFS called for in the first two weeks of April while the Euro correctly called for the big relaxation in the torch pattern. But I know the KFS has its own way of scoring skill. Nice to have someone else say that too. I mentioned that as well but got tackled by Brian123456 and LL. Those trees are like a week ahead if most in te burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Nice to have someone else say that too. I mentioned that as well but got tackled by Brian123456 and LL. Those trees are like a week ahead if most in te burbs. let's total her up...what's the April monthly departures for BOS, ORH, BDL and BDR? While not an all out torchathon, it's been pretty warm and incredibly dry. The lack of rainfall is certainly a bigger story than the warmth at this juncture... Perhaps had it been wetter, we'd be a bit cooler MTD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Absolutely peter....some nice fresh water streams in nw jersey...trout season started 2 weeks ago....if i had my choice i would be fishing in PA or Upstate NY......but i can only play the cards i was delt peter No Sh*t. I wouldn't have thought that. Massachusetts has argueably the best stocking program in the NE. So much so that there are many "wild" trout now. These are very wary and tough to catch, at least compared to stockies. The Westfield river near my house is stocked with Atlantic Salmon, Rainbows,Browns,Brookies and Tiger Trout. Some of the Salmon they put in are brood stock past their peak production, these fish go in to the river at 11-13lbs. Insane to take one on light tackle or a fly rod. The fishing, along with the snow, is one of the reasons I live here in GC. The river here is as low as I've ever seen it in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I had cleared out brush and had it sitting in the back of the truck for the last couple days. Went out after dinner to dump it in the woods and got swarmed. Left the windows open on the truck as I did so and the damn things took roost all over the windshield. Horrible stuff. I think it's your Lesco. No one else has any leaves. Either did you in your pictues yesterday. lol Still 73.4--bleh. Yup, right to swarm city, the black flies are the worst. I hate this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I hate these fooking trees. That's a Norway Maple. Curse the person who introduced these trees from Europe as they are a essentially an invasive weed tree and crowd out the native species. You're probably about 10 days ahead of us. Norway Maples are just beginning to open here. Not good for allergy sufferers like me as these trees are prolific pollinators. Hopefully the D8-10 12Z Euro is right. Looks like a big cutoff and low cutting west of us. Could mean a nice tropical connection, strong southerly LLJ and heavy rains if it verified. It could also mean snow for the higher elevations of the central and southern Apps with that type of cutoff and deep negative height anomaly. Who knows it could very well bring some late season magic to the spine of the Greens and Whites too as the cutoff traverses east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 930pm and 76...not bad for mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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