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Heart of April banter and discussion.


CoastalWx

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models and ensembles look good for a rain storm next weekend.

Guess it's possible the southern stream remains separate and doesn't phase but at least right now some good model consistency.

Yep. ... Looks very MJO derivative, too.

Enjoy this summery interlude because it may yet turn raw and nasty. And, if that thing next weekend should close off and slip under LI, eh..

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First mowing of the year complete. Earliest on record by 3 weeks.

Pics coming later.

No sign of rain the rest of the month..

HPC agrees

THE FLOW PATTERN

ACROSS CANADA DOES NOT LOOK AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE

OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. IN ORDER TO DEAL WITH THE

UNCERTAINTY...USED A 40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z

GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION KEPT REASONABLE

CONTINUITY... THOUGH IT LED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK ACROSS

THE EAST/OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

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First mowing of the year complete. Earliest on record by 3 weeks.

Pics coming later.

No sign of rain the rest of the month..

HPC agrees

THE FLOW PATTERN

ACROSS CANADA DOES NOT LOOK AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE

OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. IN ORDER TO DEAL WITH THE

UNCERTAINTY...USED A 40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z

GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION KEPT REASONABLE

CONTINUITY... THOUGH IT LED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK ACROSS

THE EAST/OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

First? My guy has come 3 times already, starting on 3/30. (yeah yeah yeah, I know we are tropical down here...lol)

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First mowing of the year complete. Earliest on record by 3 weeks.

Pics coming later.

No sign of rain the rest of the month..

HPC agrees

THE FLOW PATTERN

ACROSS CANADA DOES NOT LOOK AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE

OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. IN ORDER TO DEAL WITH THE

UNCERTAINTY...USED A 40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z

GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION KEPT REASONABLE

CONTINUITY... THOUGH IT LED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK ACROSS

THE EAST/OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

Your reading comprehension skills appear a bit selective in this case. They didn't say no rain anywhere in there. Aside from the fact, you would not find a meteorologist on this board or anywhere for that matter, that would think we are not heading into a period of amplitude along the EC; any such amplitude carries chances for meaningful rain. Here's today's middle range discussion if anyone is interested...

A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 TRANSITIONS IN MOST

GUIDANCE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST DIGS

SOUTHWARD...AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER W-CENTRAL US AND A DOWNSTREAM

TROUGH TO THE ERN US. WHILE NOT DEPICTED IN PROGS DUE TO LOUSY

DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...THERE REMAINS SOME

POSSIBILITY EITHER TROUGH COULD EVEN DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR OR

SOUTH OF 40N.

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Appears the 12z Euro want to zip a low up well enough west to warm sector, but then lingers backside additional S/W dynamics for possible coastal there after. NCEP mentioned the CMC was not as amplified as the GFS - I only say that's the case for the time intervals. The CMC's extrapolation beyond it's end frames still argues for coastal development.

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I don't know what he's looking because I drive thru HFD a few times per week and work in the valley and more than half the trees have leafed out.

Look at the DOT traffic cams. I just looked at a few along I-91 from Rocky Hill up through Windsor and I-84 in the Hartford area. Not even close to full or even halfway leafed out. Lots of bare trees, many without even the green glow of pre-leaf out that all of the trees here have. We'll have another good growth spurt with the warmth this week, so we'll see how things progress.

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Appears the 12z Euro want to zip a low up well enough west to warm sector, but then lingers backside additional S/W dynamics for possible coastal there after. NCEP mentioned the CMC was not as amplified as the GFS - I only say that's the case for the time intervals. The CMC's extrapolation beyond it's end frames still argues for coastal development.

Coastals are a myth...they never happen anymore

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