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Heart of April banter and discussion.


CoastalWx

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Up...no winter next year:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - AMJ 2012 TO AMJ 2013

TEMPERATURE

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR AMJ 2012 INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW

NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWESTERN

ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA IMPACTS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL MEAN

TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, TEXAS, THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,

THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST STATES, THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES, NEW ENGLAND AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. MJJ THROUGH

SON FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN OBJECTIVE CONSOLIDATION OF CFSV1, CCA,

OCN, SMLR AND ECCA FORECAST TOOLS. THESE CONSISTENTLY INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL

TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTH, SOUTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC COAST

STATES THROUGH ASO. FOR SON THROUGH NDJ, INDICATIONS FOR ABOVE NORMAL

TEMPERATURES COVER THE SOUTHWEST, TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND

GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. INDICATIONS FOR ABOVE NORMAL

DWINDLE TO JUST THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND FOR DJF AND JFM. TRENDS APPLY

TO THE FMA-AMJ 2013 FORECASTS, WHICH FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE

SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.

NORTHERN ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO HAVE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL

TEMPERATURES IN ALL BUT MJJ, JJA, AND NDJ. IN UNSPECIFIED AREAS, EQUAL CHANCES

FOR BELOW, NORMAL, OR ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED.

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Lol in jest. The dry begets dry argument may work under a ridge in July but I don't think it has any merit in the spring.

It's an interesting exploration. A Met and I were discussing this; it seems to us that the whole "begets dry" part of that might be explained through shear statistical variance.

Suppose for a moment the region is in a -3SD moisture anomaly; it would stand entirely to reason that to get the area out of that, and back to neutral, would require a minimum +3SD event - and regionally, not just locally.

Well, if that baser intuitive notion were correct, it then begs the question. How oftend is there a +3SD event?

Answer, much more rarely than a +1 SD event.

Now ... suppose the region got three +1.25SD events, back to back to back, with limited intervening drying. That might also fit the inuitive model on refitting lost moisture and returning a region to normal But then ...again, how ofter are you going to get a 3-set scenario? Relatively rare, one is forced to logically conclude.

What that leaves is a preponderance of drought with less probability to break it because the frequency of what it would take to do so is low. What falls out of all that is a preconception that the dry is somehow causing it to be dry (and there may still be some truth to that, nonetheless), when it is purely a matter of statistics.

If an area is in a sere -7SD anomaly, it's simply going to take a behemoth occurrence to get out of that. West TX may need a stalled out weakening tropical system.

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