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Heart of April banter and discussion.


CoastalWx

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Convective ice shower just came through.

post-1816-0-26284700-1334244829.jpg

That's probably ligit hail. This is one of those odd border days, where you get particles that are quasi graupel/hail at the same time. Meanwhile, a 4,500' mountain top would flip to aggregates.

I agree with Scott... The sun should continue to destablize things... Could get a more aggressive updraft or two that would tap into ML lapse rates for some strokes.

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Your daily winter post-card from NNE... the 1,000ft cliffs of Smugglers Notch still draped in over two feet of April snow.

Just curious ... what are the prospects for flashflooding on the valley floors when the relative torridity from the OV comes pummeling through over the weekend. With heights fairly dramatically rising, we aren't talking sun forced warming in the afternoons, with relative chill lingering at cloud bases... This is higher boundary layer thickness stuff coming in... In fact, some operational guidance have the deep layer 500mb nearing 570dm by Monday!

Anyway, could see it soaring into the upper 50s and lower 60s on those 3,800 - 4,700 summits, and all that 2 feet of snow melting in a real hurry.

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Just curious ... what are the prospects for flashflooding on the valley floors when the relative torridity from the OV comes pummeling through over the weekend. With heights fairly dramatically rising, we aren't talking sun forced warming in the afternoons, with relative chill lingering at cloud bases... This is higher boundary layer thickness stuff coming in... In fact, some operational guidance have the deep layer 500mb nearing 570dm by Monday!

Anyway, could see it soaring into the upper 50s and lower 60s on those 3,800 - 4,700 summits, and all that 2 feet of snow melting in a real hurry.

There will be no issues... I mean, we melted like 4-7 feet of snow out of 2,000ft-4,000ft in about 4 days during that March heatwave with no problem. There was even snow in the valleys from that one and based on my hydro snow surveys prior to that March meltdown we had around 14" of liquid in the snowpack at 3,000ft and that pretty much all released in 96 hours.

Now, if we were to get some thunderstorms that put down some serious rainfall in the basin in short amount of time, along with snow melt, then we may have some flash flooding issues. The Mansfield Co-Op received over 4" of QPF in this past event which is locked up in almost 30" of snow, so there will be some water released, but I can't imagine it will be an issue.

Last year we had flash flooding issues in April from snowpack melt and a thunderstorm over Mansfield that produced 3" in 3 hours of heavy rainfall... that combined with several inches of liquid release from snow and we'll have a problem.

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