BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Looking like extreme warmth after the chill this week....Should be the potential for 80s and even isolated 90s Sun-Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 11, 2012 Author Share Posted April 11, 2012 Well thanks for the interaction guys. lol..I really dont know why more people dont want to talk about this...Maybe because we have already seen 80 in March, but I think many people who do not know a lot about weather or follow it daily like us will be pretty surprised with how high the thermometer rises in this period after chilly days today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Doesn't look all that "extreme" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 A few days of +15 to +20 Sunday through Tuesday, then back to normal. 90 not out of the question. I'm more interested in the severe weather opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 00z Euro has Monday as the warmest day, with 850s around 17. The GFS is warmer Sun/Tues with the influence of a NE trough cooling us slightly on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 A few days of +15 to +20 Sunday through Tuesday, then back to normal. 90 not out of the question. I'm more interested in the severe weather opportunity. Oh? Do tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Oh? Do tell Hi, go take a look in the central forum... Will tell ya what you wanna know (at least in those areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Hi, go take a look in the central forum... Will tell ya what you wanna know (at least in those areas) Ah okies... I thought Ellinwood was goibng to grace us with his ideas, and have Ian state meh 1000 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Ah okies... I thought Ellinwood was goibng to grace us with his ideas, and have Ian state meh 1000 times Wednesday has potential... no need for details at this point, though. Mostly a wind threat unless we can pop a surface low over the central Apps and get some backing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 A few days of +15 to +20 Sunday through Tuesday, then back to normal. 90 not out of the question. I'm more interested in the severe weather opportunity. I'm hoping the Mid-Atlantic can get some good severe weather this season. History says it's a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 I'm hoping the Mid-Atlantic can get some good severe weather this season. History says it's a good possibility. I want an EF-5 to go through Carroll County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 I want an EF-5 to go through Carroll County. Farm-fields only right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Looking like extreme warmth after the chill this week....Should be the potential for 80s and even isolated 90s Sun-Wed There has been a consistent signal for heat 1-2 standard deviations above normal, with the highest deviation over an area that includes MD, DC, VA. A close to 2 sigma departure would push the temperature into the upper 80s to around 90° or a little above for BWI, DCA, IAD, and RIC. 90° heat in April has become somewhat more common in the 1981-2010 base period with a statistical probability of occurring about once every 2.6 years. A 2.5 sigma departure would be notable, as that would push readings in all four cities toward or just above their monthly marks. Right now, that kind of extreme does not appear to be on the proverbial table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Farm-fields only right? Can't be rated an EF-5 if it goes over fields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Can't be rated an EF-5 if it goes over fields touché. One or two masonry buildings with no deaths then. The rest open fields with a giant hill on one side for me to record the whole thing on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 Doesn't look all that "extreme" to me. SO the chance for 90 in April isnt extreme ?? What is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 SO the chance for 90 in April isnt extreme ?? What is? 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 SO the chance for 90 in April isnt extreme ?? What is? Did you skip past DonSutherland's post above to pick a fight with me? Awesome. I will refer you to DonSutherland's post above and I stand by my reponse to your whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Did you skip past DonSutherland's post above to pick a fight with me? Awesome. I will refer you to DonSutherland's post above and I stand by my reponse to your whining. Thumbsup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 Did you skip past DonSutherland's post above to pick a fight with me? Awesome. I will refer you to DonSutherland's post above and I stand by my reponse to your whining. Thats all fine and dandy what the statistical probability of 90 occuring in any given year is...the fact is, IF 90F is hit, it will be ~25 degrees above normal....Im sorry, but that IS extreme, to me anyway..If it were 25 degrees below normal, we all would be talking about it and saying that..I love snow as much as the next guy but Im tired of this bias towards cold and snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 What bias? Plenty of warmistas around here. Yes, 90 would be hot for this time of year. But not remotely out of the ordinary. We see it every couple of years. If it were a prolonged stetch of 90s, say 4 or more days running, I would grant that might be "extreme". But I am not seeing that on the models. The warm-up is certainly worth a thread, but the fact that no one jumped in probably had something to do with a general disagreement as to your characterization of the heat. Or, as likely, a board that is quiet right now thanks to a prolonged period of pretty non-eventful weather. Regardless, yes, it will be much warmer and crossing over to hot for a day or two next week. I am glad for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 90 isn't that big of a deal... we've hit 94-95, 9 times in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 90 isn't that big of a deal... we've hit 94-95, 9 times in April in the last 30 years, we've hit 90 in April, 12 times...not that rare, but not common...too bad we probably won't get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 If nothing else, this will lock our region into another + month, and get us a step closer to the warmest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 A few additional heat statistics: Statistical probability of a 90° day in April (1981-2010 reference period): Once every 2.6 years Frequency of at least one 90° day in April (2000 through 2011): Once every 3.0 years Number of 90° days in April (2000 through 2011): 7 April Maximum Temperatures (2000-2011): 2000: 82° 2001: 89° 2002: 95° 2003: 85° 2004: 91° 2005: 86° 2006: 83° 2007: 86° 2008: 85° 2009: 92° 2010: 90° 2011: 86° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 90 isn't that big of a deal... we've hit 94-95, 9 times in April Didnt we have a 4 day stretch of 90's in April 2009? Like you said, it isnt that big of a deal here in our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Since April is on the upward swing, we could also look at the segments of the month in regards to 90° days: Full DC Record Apr 1-10: 7/1400 = 0.5% Apr 11-20: 22/1400 = 1.6% Apr 21-30: 24/1400 = 1.7% Current DCA location Apr 1-10: 3/630 = 0.5% Apr 11-20: 14/630 = 2.2% Apr 21-30: 13/630 = 2.1% 1981 forward Apr 1-10: 2/310 = 0.6% Apr 11-20: 6/310 = 1.9% Apr 21-30: 5/310 = 1.6% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Didnt we have a 4 day stretch of 90's in April 2009? Like you said, it isnt that big of a deal here in our region edit - IAD did get three in a row in Apr '09. DCA was probably river modified. Only one in Apr '09. Here are the 13 at DCA in the last 30 years. Month Day Year MaxT 4 19 1985 91 4 22 1985 93 4 26 1990 91 4 27 1990 93 4 27 1994 90 4 19 1995 91 4 16 2002 92 4 17 2002 95 4 18 2002 91 4 19 2004 91 4 26 2009 92 4 6 2010 90 4 7 2010 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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