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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD: Banter thread


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Grothar doesn't approve of those posts. Funny how he disappears when we get into a somewhat wet pattern. I wonder if he still thinks drought emergencies less then 20 days from now?

I am still here and I read your posts. yes we may be in a normal wet pattern but not a drought busting pattern. Grass is green, plants look nice stream levels have temporarily returned to base level flows. 1.5 inches of rain is not drought busting. We have a marine layer over us for almost two weeks. What little rain has fallen from dying thunderstorms hitting this marine layer has managed to keep the six inches of topsoil moist enough to green the grass and the forest floor. The topsoil clay soils cannot dry out because we have had no sun. The complaints of mushy topsoils are because of the fragipan soil profiles in the complainant properties. We have been extremely fortunate to have cooler temperatures from the marine layer but it has successfully diminished our chances for daily thunderstorms or severe weather. This marine layer is also affecting the groundwater table and the groundwater tables will continue to fall rapidly as we pull from our private and municipal wells. (see below)

We are now at late July - August groundwater levels and it is not even the middle of May. Many will be surprised by the issuance of drought watches or warnings or even emergencies if the temps climb back up to the upper 80's and 90;s and citizens start watering their lawns and washing their cars. It will not take much to place us in that position. I still say around Memorial Day unless the entire Mt Holly region gets over 3 inches of rain by then.

pa07d_dwc.gif

w30_le644.gif

Depth to water level, feet below land surface Most recent instantaneous value: 58.64 05-07-2012 09:00 EDT USGS.403429075392401.02.72019..20120430.20120507..0..gif

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We are now at late July - August groundwater levels and it is not even the middle of May. Many will be surprised by the issuance of drought watches or warnings or even emergencies if the temps climb back up to the upper 80's and 90;s and citizens start watering their lawns and washing their cars. It will not take much to place us in that position. I still say around Memorial Day unless the entire Mt Holly region gets over 3 inches of rain by then.

Perhaps, but my guess is everything will even out by then, or we will have a much wetter summer similar to two years ago (these things always find a way to level out). I think eveyone just finds your "the sky is falling" posts a bit over the top all things considering ;)

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Perhaps, but my guess is everything will even out by then, or we will have a much wetter summer similar to two years ago (these things always find a way to level out). I think eveyone just finds your "the sky is falling" posts a bit over the top all things considering ;)

The sky is falling posts that you and others state are just my concerns. Sky is falling posts would be posts on wx models 120-360 hours out and saying it will happen or JB, HM (accuwx) or DT throwing out their pie in the sky 90 day outlooks, especially this past winter. How many weather junkies here post only on the reliability of those computer models or outlooks? The NWS drought mapping or the USGS mapping is factual information-live measurements. I am only presenting that information that comes from them- not my own. Its just like everyone on this board presenting the Euro, NAM etc wx models and basing their experiences on how these PREDICTIVE MODELS come to fruition.

I was modeling on paper before many of you were even born and when they only had one wx model and one major computer in maryland. Computer wx models are todays graphic games to many posters. I would love to see us go back to one satellite (not infrared) and one computer model and see how many of todays meteorologists would have accurate weather forecasts for even three days out. What I am really saying is many posters are spoiled on this board and they they do not appreciate how lucky they are to have the gift of several computer models to make somewhat accurate forecasts. Take away the tools, and see what happens then. I am not going away and the drought will end when the graphical information says it has ended.

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The sky is falling posts that you and others state are just my concerns. Sky is falling posts would be posts on wx models 120-360 hours out and saying it will happen or JB, HM (accuwx) or DT throwing out their pie in the sky 90 day outlooks, especially this past winter. How many weather junkies here post only on the reliability of those computer models or outlooks? The NWS drought mapping or the USGS mapping is factual information-live measurements. I am only presenting that information that comes from them- not my own. Its just like everyone on this board presenting the Euro, NAM etc wx models and basing their experiences on how these PREDICTIVE MODELS come to fruition.

I was modeling on paper before many of you were even born and when they only had one wx model and one major computer in maryland. Computer wx models are todays graphic games to many posters. I would love to see us go back to one satellite (not infrared) and one computer model and see how many of todays meteorologists would have accurate weather forecasts for even three days out. What I am really saying is many posters are spoiled on this board and they they do not appreciate how lucky they are to have the gift of several computer models to make somewhat accurate forecasts. Take away the tools, and see what happens then. I am not going away and the drought will end when the graphical information says it has ended.

Can't help when I was born bro.

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Speaking of rain.. WTF IS UP WITH THIS RAIN COMING IN? Soo much for sunny and 70 today.. Grrrr. 18 holes cancelled today

Who was forecasting sunny for today?

The showers are ahead of a warm front, and ended up farther east than initially expected.

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I was modeling on paper before many of you were even born and when they only had one wx model and one major computer in maryland. Computer wx models are todays graphic games to many posters. I would love to see us go back to one satellite (not infrared) and one computer model and see how many of todays meteorologists would have accurate weather forecasts for even three days out. What I am really saying is many posters are spoiled on this board and they they do not appreciate how lucky they are to have the gift of several computer models to make somewhat accurate forecasts. Take away the tools, and see what happens then. I am not going away and the drought will end when the graphical information says it has ended.

What does this have to do with anything? Of course forecasts and forecasters would be worse with less technology. I fail to see how that has anything to do with people calling you out on your lousy drought proclamations.

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The sky is falling posts that you and others state are just my concerns. Sky is falling posts would be posts on wx models 120-360 hours out and saying it will happen or JB, HM (accuwx) or DT throwing out their pie in the sky 90 day outlooks, especially this past winter. How many weather junkies here post only on the reliability of those computer models or outlooks? The NWS drought mapping or the USGS mapping is factual information-live measurements. I am only presenting that information that comes from them- not my own. Its just like everyone on this board presenting the Euro, NAM etc wx models and basing their experiences on how these PREDICTIVE MODELS come to fruition.

I was modeling on paper before many of you were even born and when they only had one wx model and one major computer in maryland. Computer wx models are todays graphic games to many posters. I would love to see us go back to one satellite (not infrared) and one computer model and see how many of todays meteorologists would have accurate weather forecasts for even three days out. What I am really saying is many posters are spoiled on this board and they they do not appreciate how lucky they are to have the gift of several computer models to make somewhat accurate forecasts. Take away the tools, and see what happens then. I am not going away and the drought will end when the graphical information says it has ended.

Except I don't care how many times you ramble on about it, the drought can't go away when there isn't one to begin with. Below average, yes. Drought, no.

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What does this have to do with anything? Of course forecasts and forecasters would be worse with less technology. I fail to see how that has anything to do with people calling you out on your lousy drought proclamations.

You rely on graphs and measurements. So do hydrologists. I presented you the information from the government. Would I call you you out every time you made a mistake on your interpretation of a model run presented to this board? I do not do that. Unfortunately, hydrologists do not have the luxury of half a dozen different model runs running three times a day to predict streamflow and groundwater data. They usually rely on only on live measurements and past experiences and maybe the ACOE and USGS flood model if needed. Hydrology is not solely dependent on numerous predictive models runs. I will repeat for you again- these are USGS informational maps that I presented before. Just pretend it is a Euro model run. Then criticize the map - not the person who is presenting you the information. Below is the Palmer indices which still indicates a drought condition for parts of our forecast area. This information comes from NOAA.

pdi20120428-pg.gif

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You rely on graphs and measurements. So do hydrologists. I presented you the information from the government. Would I call you you out every time you made a mistake on your interpretation of a model run presented to this board? I do not do that. Unfortunately, hydrologists do not have the luxury of half a dozen different model runs running three times a day to predict streamflow and groundwater data. They usually rely on only on live measurements and past experiences and maybe the ACOE and USGS flood model if needed. Hydrology is not solely dependent on numerous predictive models runs. I will repeat for you again- these are USGS informational maps that I presented before. Just pretend it is a Euro model run. Then criticize the map - not the person who is presenting you the information. Below is the Palmer indices which still indicates a drought condition for parts of our forecast area. This information comes from NOAA.

I am not disputing the data you show. I look at the Palmer drought and UNL Drought Monitor maps every week when they come out. I understand completely when you show the groundwater maps. My company has ag clients which have obvious hydrological interests. Where we differ is in our interpretation of the maps - which I read as merely below normal, but you read as the sky is falling. If we have normal rainfall through June (as good a prediction as any), we won't have anything to worry about. Instead, you take it to the nth degree about the impending water shortages.

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Who was forecasting sunny for today?

The showers are ahead of a warm front, and ended up farther east than initially expected.

6abc yesterday.....

Not a knock at you guys in the office.

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