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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD: Banter thread


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Hey where are these shots taken which park as that looks like a great place to film from.

Perkiomen Valley Schools (Behind the High School where all the ball fields/playgrounds are located) on Rt. 29 between Collegeville and Schwenksville.

You are right about the view, it sits up on a hill over 100 feet higher than most locations facing south, north or east.

Best views are definetely looking east.

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just wanted to post this while laying poolside drink golden monkey. watch out for strong to svr storm with a cold front dropping soithward. this is mainly a phl on north threat with the beat shot in central bucks and montco on north...with lehigh valley and.pocs beat chance...cape values in the 2000-3000 range and good LI will help...aroind the philly area look for weakening storms to affect the area this ev into the night...

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The HRRR is developing the stuff up in northern PA into a broken line segment that drops south through the burbs around 21z.

cref_t3sfc_f07.png

SPC has us in a 5% for both wind and hail.

With MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/Kg over Eastern PA, severe hail seems at least possible, although lapse rates throughout the column are generally unimpressive, so that will be a limiting factor. The lack of shear though will be the real killer, as SPC mentions in their new MD:

DISCUSSION...OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY LACK OF GREATER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPSTREAM VWP DATA DEPICTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AOB 10KT. HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WAS MOVING INTO A WARM AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. THESE FACTORS MAY OFFSET THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR SO THAT ISOLATED CELLS COULD BRIEFLY ATTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL NEAR 1 INCH. ATTM...SEVERE STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH.

http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0908.html

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KDIX is indicating 5.00" of rain in the last hour north of Stroudsburg. I'm a bit skeptical of that amount, but even half of that in just an hour is definitely significant.

Wouldn't surprise me to see a 3" report come in given the humidity and movement of the cell, but I join your suspicion of the 5" pixel.

EDIT: I noticed a new AWOS in eastern Chester County on my GR feed. It's coded KOQN, anyone know what this airport is / when this was added?

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KDIX is indicating 5.00" of rain in the last hour north of Stroudsburg. I'm a bit skeptical of that amount, but even half of that in just an hour is definitely significant.

FFW out for portions of Monroe / Northampton Counties: WGUS51 KPHI 261836

FFWPHI

NJC041-PAC089-095-262130-

/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0003.120526T1836Z-120526T2130Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

236 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

NORTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY...

NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...

EAST CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

* AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL MONROE...

NORTH CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DELAWARE

WATER GAP...EAST BANGOR...EAST STROUDSBURG...STROUDSBURG...COLUMBIA

AND STORMVILLE.

TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST

HOUR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN

THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING...HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE

POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS

FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF

SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4098 7500 4085 7519 4097 7532 4107 7514

$$

ROBERTSON

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Wouldn't surprise me to see a 3" report come in given the humidity and movement of the cell, but I join your suspicion of the 5" pixel.

EDIT: I noticed a new AWOS in eastern Chester County on my GR feed. It's coded KOQN, anyone know what this airport is / when this was added?

http://www.airnav.com/airport/KOQN

I can't seem to access the actual METARs. The data does appear in MesoWest, though: http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/meso_base.cgi?stn=KOQN&time=GMT

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watch info

http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0300.html

FWIW, I probably would have thrown Chester County in that watch as well for continuity and playing it safe. If you're going to throw Bucks and Montco in and Lancaster from CTP is in, Chester should be in as well.

I'm rather surprised they went with 75 mph winds (rather than the baseline 70 mph) but only 1" diameter hail (whereas 2" is usually the baseline for a WW, they could have at least done 1.5").

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