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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD: Banter thread


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Looks like another round of storms developing to the south in MD and DE will try and effect the Philadelphia metro area this evening a few things due stand out that make me think perhaps an isolated strong cell can not be ruled out.

1. Low level laps rates are still some what decent not the best in the world but will get the job done.

lllr_sf.gif?1337980809077

2. We still have a fair amount of instability around due to the return of sun shine for most that had the MCS this afternoon. In some places temps have risen back to near 80 degrees.

3. we still have a strong vortext/ shortwave near by enhancing storms. Best chance for storms to return would be between 6 and 9pm after 9pm convection should slowly die down as the atmosphere slowly stabilizes however elevated instability may persist into the night.

vadv_sf.gif?1337981109089

I give you credit for the analysis, but I disagree because:

1.) Once the sun sets we lose the low level lapse rates and surface based instability and therefore any server threat.

2.) The departing vort max puts the Delaware Valley in a region of Negative Vorticity Advection (NVA). The NVA is evident across the eastern Susquehanna Valley on the third image you posted. NVA enables sinking air and is a hindrance to storms.

3.) Finally any activity in Maryland is based off the bay breeze from the Chesapeake and is more of a local phenomena.

With that said I would not be surprised to see a few good elevated storms form between now and midnight. Still could pack a heck of a light show.

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Just for the record, I think calling what happened today an MCS is a bit of an exaggeration. It was a multicellular storm at best.

I agree as yesterdays storms were a small cluster of convection that expanded some as it moved northwestward. It looks like it took advantage of the water loading within the downdrafts, which helped produce the locally strong winds.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

901 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-

056>059-063>066-261315-

WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-

NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-

JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-

SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-

NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-

ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-

901 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT LATER TODAY...SOME COULD

CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

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