Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD: Banter thread


Recommended Posts

I was strictly speaking thunderstorms with severe potential. I should have clarified. With high pwats, def a heavier rain threat. Although, if anything pops by 6, could have a rumble of thunder or 2.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 999
  • Created
  • Last Reply

With more sun out today it could get rather interesting for slow moving non severe storms producing heavy rain fall. sb cape Instability has got to 500-1000 and could get up to 1500 in some spots providing convection does not develop faster. Already at 10am the first few cells are popping west of Allentown and it looks like there will be more as clouds are already building up.. Also the HRRR and spc 4km hit west and northwest of I95 pretty good this afternoon. we shall see how that goes here is the link to the spc 4km wrf.

http://www.emc.ncep....animate_1h.html

And now here are the spc wrf rain fall total remember only use this map as a reminder that storms today will produce heavy rain fall amounts not everyone will; see the high amounts it has.

today_36h_total.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

based on CAPE alone, or other factors?

Well mid level lapse rates , strong forcing and shear are missing.

What we do have is solid 1000-1500 cape, 8-8.5 low level lapse rates and lift index of roughly -3 per meso analysis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ULL cut off low down south is now starting to move more north we shall see if it enhances storms at all. a few cells now popping just east of Philly in New jersey. There are some smaller thunderheads going up here in the city with dark sky's just east of me so we shall see if this triggers more cells to pop. Main concern today remains flash flooding.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

based on CAPE alone, or other factors?

Like bri mentioned all the parameters are the same as out there. So i think its 2 reasons why its having problems around the philly area and SE. If you look at the satellite shot stormspotter posted the flow around the ULL is bring a wind off the ocean, which could be to a degree putting a lid on some of the convection making the atmosphere a little more stable. Also, on the spc surface graphics their appears to be some sort of wind shift line just west of the abe to lns line where the winds start to veer and that could be triggering. That is just my guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got some hail out this way, sorry no pics yet, try to post if I get any. Looks like a pretty good cell.

Sweet! The way this system is moving, might catch some of it at my house. I'll have to keep an eye on my PWS data. So far, we've only gotten 0.04" of rain today, but temps have dropped dramatically in the past hour.

Unfortunately, I'm stuck at work in a windowless room, away from all the action. Second shift sucks for severe weather enthusiasts in our area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...