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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD: Banter thread


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she also stated that there will be average precipitation but did state system will have more storms and moisture due to our changing climate.

Did she really? Because that is an incredibly dumb statement.

I'm sure if you compared large periods of time, like 81-10 and 71-00, you would find an increase in these parameters, but you wouldn't on a year-to-year time scale.

And even if you did, the change would be so nominal that it couldn't be noticed. So now if Joe Schmo from Burlington County remembers a bad storm from last year, but he doesn't get a bad storm this year, he'll use it to justify his belief that climate change is a hoax or whatever.

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Kathy orr is going with 28-31 90 degree days and not expecting any 100 days. She is thinking July and August will be very hot This summer. she also stated that there will be average precipitation but did state system will have more storms and moisture due to our changing climate.

A very hot July and August would blow through the 28-31 90 degree days pretty quickly. The second part

is just wow.

Hoping Roger Smith is wrong...

In the meantime, I'll enjoy the pleasant days while they last.

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What'd he say? (Haven't been browsing the main forum much)

Ray, we are always here to help you find what you need even though its only a few simple clicks away ;):P:)

This can be a very short long-range forecast. I have run my developmental research model using all the data available and the results look very much like the past two years for the northeast U.S., Great Lakes and Ohio valley, but this year, I expect the heat to be very widespread as a very anomalous bulge in the upper circulation takes up semi-permanent residence over the eastern half of the U.S. with a secondary ridge on the west coast. Temperature anomalies are likely to be close to record values (other than perhaps 1936) in central regions as well as extending to the east coast.

June could be somewhat closer to normal than July and August at least in the northeast, but it will be a case of widespread severe heat building up from the central plains into the east and then the pattern locking in until mid to late September.

Rainfall is likely to be considerably below normal in many parts, but I think it will be an active severe storm season in the northern plains, upper and central Great Lakes into upstate New York and northern New England, southern Quebec and New Brunswick.

There is likely to be heavy rainfalls in parts of Montana and Alberta, extending into parts of Wyoming and Idaho, and eastern B.C., while the west coast should have a detached regime of warm, dry weather from a ridge near the Gulf of Alaska. Only a weak upper low will influence the Great Basin and the desert southwest will also be above normal in temperature with possibly a very active monsoon season.

My outlook calls for a very active North Atlantic tropical season with a predicted total of 21 named storms, 13 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes. All theatres will become active at times. With this level of storm development, there would almost certainly be 2-5 significant landfalling storms for the U.S. and/or eastern Canada.

I might add some maps but would think that this pattern pretty much explains itself. Not surprisingly, the output indicates a peak in the severe heat conditions in late July and early August, a time of year when record highs can easily surpass 105 F and reach 110 F.

A forecast has been prepared for Europe and this shows widespread heat there also, trending closer to normal in the U.K. and Ireland but still somewhat on the warm side, once the current chilly blocking pattern totally breaks down in about a week or two. Remnants of this blocking may retrogress into eastern North America leading to a few relatively cool days for the east before this heat wave situation intensifies.

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how accurate is google earth for elevation?

Is it best to use this or get an outside company to provide the data?

reason that I ask is that i am closing on a property in highland lake, NJ this week.

google puts the property at 1405-1435 in elevation.

Going to need to set up my weather equipment etc online.

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how accurate is google earth for elevation?

Is it best to use this or get an outside company to provide the data?

reason that I ask is that i am closing on a property in highland lake, NJ this week.

google puts the property at 1405-1435 in elevation.

Going to need to set up my weather equipment etc online.

USGS maps are very accurate and freely available.

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The GFS' attempts to spin up something late next week near the Bahamas aren't tropical in origin...it's an upper level feature that spins up a surface reflection after it crosses Florida...this is the same system that will dump a sh*tload of rain on Texas over the next week.

It isn't going to be Alberto...and the thing the GFS is hyping is likely not going to be that strong if it even develops...and that's a huge if.

I am glad it is heading OTS so far - little further north than I thought but it still developed into a TS

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