SquatchinNY Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa....k/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 I'd probably make this April 7th-11th to cover the days between now and the potentially more significant threat from Thursday on next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 7, 2012 Author Share Posted April 7, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0150.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 7, 2012 Author Share Posted April 7, 2012 SVRWarned storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 401 PM CDT SAT APR 07 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0354 PM HAIL 12 SSE MCCAULLEY 32.62N 100.13W 04/07/2012 M1.50 INCH JONES TX TRAINED SPOTTER 0354 PM TSTM WND GST 12 SSE MCCAULLEY 32.62N 100.13W 04/07/2012 E69 MPH JONES TX TRAINED SPOTTER 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS Growing into a powerful cell. This could get interesting wrt hail and wind at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 7, 2012 Author Share Posted April 7, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 401 PM CDT SAT APR 07 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0354 PM HAIL 12 SSE MCCAULLEY 32.62N 100.13W 04/07/2012 M1.50 INCH JONES TX TRAINED SPOTTER 0354 PM TSTM WND GST 12 SSE MCCAULLEY 32.62N 100.13W 04/07/2012 E69 MPH JONES TX TRAINED SPOTTER 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS Growing into a powerful cell. This could get interesting wrt hail and wind at least. Dunno if this is same storm, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 7, 2012 Author Share Posted April 7, 2012 259 WFUS54 KMAF 072116 TORMAF TXC335-072145- /O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0003.120407T2116Z-120407T2145Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 416 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS... * UNTIL 445 PM CDT * AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLORADO CITY... MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR... IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND OR MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM... MOVE TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING OR INTO AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING... DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. && LAT...LON 3208 10118 3224 10117 3224 10090 3208 10090 TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 061DEG 3KT 3217 10098 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Those cells are both very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 442 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL STERLING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT * AT 438 PM CDT...A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND 5 MILE WEST OF HIGHWAY 163...MOVING INTO STERLING COUNTY. THE STORM IS MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE... LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING. *THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF... NORTH CENTRAL STERLING COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 I'm struggling to find an observation with T-Td < 20 F in the vicinity of that storm, so the repeated tornado reports are somewhat surprising. Gorilla hail is a sure bet, though, with MESH hovering in the 3-4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Is this a Texas thing? WWUS54 KSJT 072151 SVSSJT SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 451 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012 TXC431-072215- /O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120407T2215Z/ STERLING TX- 451 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL STERLING COUNTY... AT 447 PM CDT... TRAINED SPOTTER CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 163 AT THE NORTHERN STERLING COUNTY LINE. THE TORNADO IS MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS. LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. HAIL DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS... OVERTURNED VEHICLES... DAMAGE TO TREES...SOME MAY BE UPROOTED... DAMAGE TO HOMES...MAY DESTROY MANUFACTURED HOMES... DENTED VEHICLES... MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE... MAY BREAK WINDOWS ON VEHICLES AND HOMES... MAY INJURE PEOPLE...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK LEFT UNPROTECTED... DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS... LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND... THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN STERLING COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. && LAT...LON 3209 10111 3209 10094 3198 10087 3195 10113 TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 348DEG 9KT 3207 10104 $$ DANIELS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Yes, I know San Angelo commonly includes this more detailed wording with their warnings, it may be more than just SJT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Is this a Texas thing? WWUS54 KSJT 072151 SVSSJT SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 451 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012 TXC431-072215- /O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120407T2215Z/ STERLING TX- 451 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL STERLING COUNTY... AT 447 PM CDT... TRAINED SPOTTER CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 163 AT THE NORTHERN STERLING COUNTY LINE. THE TORNADO IS MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS. LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. HAIL DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS... OVERTURNED VEHICLES... DAMAGE TO TREES...SOME MAY BE UPROOTED... DAMAGE TO HOMES...MAY DESTROY MANUFACTURED HOMES... DENTED VEHICLES... MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE... MAY BREAK WINDOWS ON VEHICLES AND HOMES... MAY INJURE PEOPLE...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK LEFT UNPROTECTED... DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS... LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND... THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN STERLING COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. && LAT...LON 3209 10111 3209 10094 3198 10087 3195 10113 TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 348DEG 9KT 3207 10104 $$ DANIELS Bit of a gamble IMO to get that specific based on radar, I have seen rather unimpressive cells and couplets produce up to EF3/EF4 tornadoes (Forney,Millbury,Eminence, Harrisburg). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 This has a history of producing tornadoes Beauty of a super cell in such a meager environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 From NESDIS: LOCATION...TEXAS... . ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC... . EVENT...CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE IN WEST-CENTRAL TX . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WEST CENTRAL TX WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWING EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT LAST HOUR OR SO INVOF NOLAN COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FURTHER SW THAT WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE CONGLOMERATE OF CONVECTION AS THE EVENING GOES ON. AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CLOUD TOPS COOLING TO -62C AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL COOLING AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO MAXIMIZED. INSTABILITY IS RUNNING QUITE HIGH OVER AREA WITH LIS AROUND -8C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT HAS ALSO SHOWN PWATS POOLING TO 1.1-1.2" ALONG BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN ADDITION TO DEEP MOISTURE FROM GULF BEING LIFTED NW OVER S TEXAS. ANTICIPATE RATES OF 1-2"/HR IN DEEPEST CORES AND BELIEVE TRAINING COULD BE AN ISSUE AS RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN LIMITED MOVEMENT AND POSSIBLE BACK BUILDING COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230-0130Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND LIFT ARE PLACED TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BACK BUILD/MERGE TO THE SW POSSIBLY LEADING TO TRAINING AND A INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT SAT APR 07 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150... VALID 072341Z - 080045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150 CONTINUES. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 150 WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY DEPICTS A COLD FRONT ALONG A FST TO ABI TO ADM LINE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING S OF BGS AND NEAR ABI. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE 60S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES...HIGHEST DEWPOINTS...AND BEST CONVERGENCE ARE ALONG THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT /ABI SWWD TOWARDS FST/. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF CONTINUING/INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN THIS AREA. FARTHER N...WEAKENING WINDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS BRING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ADDITIONALLY...DESPITE SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTING AN UNCAPPED ML PARCEL...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY FLOW ARE LIKELY INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..MOSIER.. 04/07/2012 ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SUN APR 08 2012 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH D2/MON AS UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE ERN U.S. AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST DEEPEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS AMPLIFICATION PROCESS WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF A NWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF A FRONT ATTENDANT TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/ GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES TODAY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WSWWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL/SRN KS BY 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SETTLE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE...WHILE THE ERN EXTENT REACHES THE MID SOUTH TO SRN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS... THE SWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD DELINEATE THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE CYCLONE...INITIALLY LOCATED AT THE WRN EXTENT OF THE KS FRONT OVER SWRN KS OR SERN CO SHOULD TRACK ESEWD ALONG THE SWD MOVING FRONT AND REACH SERN OK/NERN TX BY 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS OK...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S SHOULD REACH THE OK/KS BORDER WHILE LOWER-MID 60S REACH N TX/RED RIVER VALLEY. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8 C PER KM/ IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG IS FORECAST ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN WEAK FORCING ALOFT ON D2...THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR CONVECTION/TSTMS SHOULD BE ATTENDANT TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA INTO WRN/NWRN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITHIN THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ. INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK AND SWWD ALONG THE SWWD TRAILING TROUGH/DRY LINE. 30-35 KT NWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS EXPECTED ATOP SSWLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA RESULTING IN ORGANIZED STORMS. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED WHILE THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS SUPPORT HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE... DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER DARK...MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF MCS/S WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE VEERING LLJ RESULTING IN ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS REACHING THE ARKLATEX MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 SPC puts out 30% hatched for tomorrow: DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT SUN APR 08 2012 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MONDAY...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE/STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. AIDED BY WEAK SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND THE ABATEMENT/SOUTHEASTWARD-SHIFT OF A SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS...A MODEST DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX AND OK INTO FAR SOUTHERN KS ON MONDAY. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RELATIVELY NEBULOUS THROUGH PEAK HEATING...SUFFICIENT MASS CONVERGENCE AND NEAR/POST-DRYLINE HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID/ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST PROBABLE/PRIMARY AREA FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW/NEAR A WEAK WARM FRONT AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENDING DRYLINE...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS NORTHWEST OK/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KS. 30-40 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ATOP A WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE TO 1500-2500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR...RESULTANT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING/GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED. FAVORABLE SHEAR/THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL...SOME OF IT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST...SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT VICINITY. A DEGREE OF SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH AND ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY/MID EVENING...AS STORMS GENERALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TX. ..GUYER.. 04/08/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 18z NAM Sounding for Medicine Lodge, KS valid at 7pm cdt tomorrow evening. Sounding, to me, is screaming large hail threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Well over 90 degrees of turning with height between the sfc and H5 as well. LCL heights don't look too overwhelmingly hindering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 The NAM is holding firm on that sweet spot over NW OK into adjacent SW/SC KS... fairly impressive hodos over a localized area, taking into account an ESE storm motion. One thing that's rather likely is good supercell structure, given the strong directional shear. Hoping to make it out to western OK tomorrow for what will hopefully prove to be the appetizer for Thu-Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Moderate risk...45% sig-hatched hail, 5% tor (which I think may rise in future outlooks if those hodographs that have been posted seem reasonable by tomorrow). DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE DAY IN FAR WRN OK NEAR THE OK-TX STATE-LINE. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SRN KS...NW OK AND THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NW TX THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM SW KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE NAM AND NAMKF INCREASE MLCAPE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WRN OK SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED LARGE HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE SSEWD...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Wow. Moderate Risk popping up out of a scenario that was not necessarily being talked about. At least in my mind, this is a surprise. NAM EHI values of 3-5 in western Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon (see College of Dupage models page.) Also there will be with 30-50 knots of shear, with higher low level convergence in western Oklahoma. The potential for tornadic supercells will be higher than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Moderate risk...45% sig-hatched hail, 5% tor (which I think may rise in future outlooks if those hodographs that have been posted seem reasonable by tomorrow). Andyhb, Do you have to post the entire SPC discussion and maps every time? The discussions are kind of long. I can read those myself on the SPC web page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Deleted the two specific probability graphics and the West TX part. Although I do like to post them here because the NCEP/SPC sites/servers can occasionally go awry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 13z outlooks drop things down to a slight risk. A modified KAMA 12z sounding for conditions expected in northwest Oklahoma later this afternoon. CAPE might be a little on the high side, but otherwise looks good. There is huge CAPE in the hail growth zone, but freezing levels are kind of on the high side and the correlation with large hail becomes a little weaker above 3500 m. So it seems reasonable that there 45% hail risk was dropped with this outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=15# Go to Surface Cape, and the forecast for 6 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 SPC in thier latest update said initiation around 21z, or 5pm Eastern, 4pm Central. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 The Cu field is expanding in the western portion of the MCD area, in the Oklahoma panhandle (as mentioned in the text). The environment is pretty favorable across Harper, Ellis, and Woodward counties. But narrow corridor as SPC mentions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Looking like there may be a little "sweet spot" for tornado development along the Oklahoma panhandle and into SW Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.