brettjrob Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 18Z NAM really narrows the warm sector for tomorrow afternoon. Models are still catching up to the strength and breadth of this huge surface ridge axis over the central US. It is up north, but it's really beefing up the instability and low-level shear around DDC and points south. Very ominous setup for NW OK into adjacent SW OK verbatim, provided initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 It is up north, but it's really beefing up the instability and low-level shear around DDC and points south. Very ominous setup for NW OK into adjacent SW OK verbatim, provided initiation. Yeah I should have said farther N. I noticed too the 18Z NAM subtly increased the dewpoints across western OK...and as you said...beefing up the mass fields, especially 500-700. Seems the culprit is a stronger (as advertised by the NAM) upper jet max and stronger cross barrier mtn flow...bulges the dryline a bit more as a result and erases most CINH, it seems probable some discrete supercells will initiate off that dryline. But who knows, I have seen weirder things occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Some 40's now showing up on the Sigtor on the 15z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 What kind of TOR threat are we looking at on THU and FRI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Look at SPC convective outlooks for days 2 and 3. They are talking about the potential for tornadic supercells coming off the dryline in OK and KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Some 40's now showing up on the Sigtor on the 15z SREF. Can you show us that picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Can you show us that picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Taking those SigTor verbatim, are we talking about these potential "tornadic" storms being in the middle of the night?!? 12am-3am? Now that could be a major concern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Taking those SigTor verbatim, are we talking about these potential "tornadic" storms being in the middle of the night?!? 12am-3am? Now that could be a major concern! No, this is the 7-10 p.m. CDT frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Mainly on the High Plains tomorrow, Amarillo-Dodge City region. Friday it shifts east a bit but ought to remain a good bit west of I-35. Tornadic potential is there every day, increasing with each day though. edit: This was in response to the guy who couldn't find out if tornadoes are expected Thur/Fri from the SPC maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Taking those SigTor verbatim, are we talking about these potential "tornadic" storms being in the middle of the night?!? 12am-3am? Now that could be a major concern! You'll definitely need to watch this, but... I have noticed subjectively that the SREF SigTor, while a great tool, seems to have an east bias on dryline events. I distinctly remember it placing a bullseye on Tulsa-Joplin for 10 May 2010, and I think it was 50-75 mi. too far east for 24 May 2011, too. As of now, I'd expect initiation well west of I-35. As you said, the threat for the TUL area might be maximized late at night in that case, but at least it probably wouldn't be as prolific a threat as farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 You'll definitely need to watch this, but... I have noticed subjectively that the SREF SigTor, while a great tool, seems to have an east bias on dryline events. I distinctly remember it placing a bullseye on Tulsa-Joplin for 10 May 2010, and I think it was 50-75 mi. too far east for 24 May 2011, too. As of now, I'd expect initiation well west of I-35. As you said, the threat for the TUL area might be maximized late at night in that case, but at least it probably wouldn't be as prolific a threat as farther west. I do believe the SREF did exactly what you said last year, it predicted it too far east, and those storms became more linear the closer they got to Tulsa. There was one very small tornado south of Tulsa in Haskell, but there truly is a bubble around Tulsa. Goes west or east of here. However, I would honestly rather be out west when these storms fire on Saturday evening. I want to be able to see them! Tornadoes at night are mighty dangerous. My family survived the '84 Morris tornado. Still remember the "All you ppl south of Tulsa are in the clear", only to have 90% of the town of Morris gone. Sorry went off on a story there, point is, I HATE nighttime tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Look at SPC convective outlooks for days 2 and 3. They are talking about the potential for tornadic supercells coming off the dryline in OK and KS. So, we could be talking multiple rounds of supercells initiating near the dryline and "ejecting" into the warm sector? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 You'll definitely need to watch this, but... I have noticed subjectively that the SREF SigTor, while a great tool, seems to have an east bias on dryline events. I distinctly remember it placing a bullseye on Tulsa-Joplin for 10 May 2010, and I think it was 50-75 mi. too far east for 24 May 2011, too. As of now, I'd expect initiation well west of I-35. As you said, the threat for the TUL area might be maximized late at night in that case, but at least it probably wouldn't be as prolific a threat as farther west. Yes usually does fairly well overall but placement can get iffy. Did nail 6/5/10 and has done well when it picked up on the threat closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 I do believe the SREF did exactly what you said last year, it predicted it too far east, and those storms became more linear the closer they got to Tulsa. There was one very small tornado south of Tulsa in Haskell, but there truly is a bubble around Tulsa. Goes west or east of here. However, I would honestly rather be out west when these storms fire on Saturday evening. I want to be able to see them! Tornadoes at night are mighty dangerous. My family survived the '84 Morris tornado. Still remember the "All you ppl south of Tulsa are in the clear", only to have 90% of the town of Morris gone. Sorry went off on a story there, point is, I HATE nighttime tornadoes. Ah, you know this and were just using a hyperbole, but I still want to state this: Tulsa does not truly have a bubble around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 I do believe the SREF did exactly what you said last year, it predicted it too far east, and those storms became more linear the closer they got to Tulsa. There was one very small tornado south of Tulsa in Haskell, but there truly is a bubble around Tulsa. Goes west or east of here. However, I would honestly rather be out west when these storms fire on Saturday evening. I want to be able to see them! Tornadoes at night are mighty dangerous. My family survived the '84 Morris tornado. Still remember the "All you ppl south of Tulsa are in the clear", only to have 90% of the town of Morris gone. Sorry went off on a story there, point is, I HATE nighttime tornadoes. Completely agree with you on the SREF situation. I dunno about the bubble thing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 paper written on the 3/13/90 event by some of the big names in Meteorology http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477%281994%29075%3C1007:SNAOTH%3E2.0.CO;2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 What about the 1975 and 1993 Tulsa tornadoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 You'll definitely need to watch this, but... I have noticed subjectively that the SREF SigTor, while a great tool, seems to have an east bias on dryline events. I distinctly remember it placing a bullseye on Tulsa-Joplin for 10 May 2010, and I think it was 50-75 mi. too far east for 24 May 2011, too. As of now, I'd expect initiation well west of I-35. As you said, the threat for the TUL area might be maximized late at night in that case, but at least it probably wouldn't be as prolific a threat as farther west. I agree with your statement about SREF dry line events. It does seem as if the sig. tor. probabilities are shifted well east of I-35 in some cases, when we know full well where initiation will most likely occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Gotta love these shear vectors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Heading out tomorrow for a two day chase Fri-Saturday, I am liking what I am seeing, the biggest fear is late initiation Saturday if the main wave in the SW slows up any more. Still it should be a good chase setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 11, 2012 Author Share Posted April 11, 2012 Classic all across the warm sector... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 very impressive 0-3km CAPE values across the northern target on the 18z NAM for Saturday. Pushing 300 j/kg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 18z NAM sounding for Dodge City, KS valid at 7pm tomorrow evening. This could get very ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 18z NAM sounding for Dodge City, KS valid at 7pm tomorrow evening. This could get very ugly. I have to say, if the 18z NAM is correct the Protection, KS area looks very volatile. I like the combination of a little dry line punch in that area, in tandem with the deeper moisture return making it to about that latitude. Nicely backed winds will exist all the way up the KS dry line, but there are questions regarding moisture the farther north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Ocean, what time should the storms initiate tommorow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Ocean, what time should the storms initiate tommorow? A lot will depend on location and strength of forcing tomorrow, but as things stand I would favor a later kick off tomorrow (at least in that northwestern OK/southwestern KS portion of the dry line). I feel the quality of moisture and forcing just arriving will delay things a bit before the cap goes. The 12z SPC WRF run actually doesn't really initiate anything prior to 00z. Much of it will come down to mesoscale (and microscale) features along the dry line to help set off convection, but if I had to guess it will be closer to 00z than 18z for sure. It does look as if things will stay scattered along the dry line, so anything that does sustain should remain discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Only drawback is dewpoints are not all that high (low 60s) which may mean some high LCLs especially on the northern end of the outbreak area. It's not all that bad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Near Ness City, KS tomorrow evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Pretty decent chance that tomorrow will feature a MDT risk. Soundings are pretty nice along the KS/OK border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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