ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 It is basically showing what the GGEM and Ukie were showing in their big runs several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 This storm isn't done, still has a nice meso, with good inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 There's a simulated signal of multiple rounds moving off the dryline as well. Crazy. The hodos are long and looping as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Tongue of 65 DEWPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 Looks like a bit of a dryline bulge around the KS/OK border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Really interested in the 6z Day 1 Wonder what kind of TOR probs they'll issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 We'll see what happens to the new tstorm warned storm back in Beckham county, OK as it'll be moving into areas where the atmosphere hasn't been worked over from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Really interested in the 6z Day 1 Wonder what kind of TOR probs they'll issue. 40% I would have to guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Friend out in so cal says its hailing there. Fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 While many convective parameters are very favourable for a significant tornado outbreak including long track, violent tornadoes.(40-50 sig tors on the sref) Precip models like the WRF and NAM hold off on almost all convection in the southern high risk. Although the 00utc nam shows some convection in KS/OK firing around 00utc. I wonder how the SPC will handle this in the 0600z update. It seems like convective coverage may be very limited but convection that does form will have enhanced strong tornado risk. Will 30% or 45% tornado be warranted? I guess we have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 best vid i've seen from norman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 While many convective parameters are very favourable for a significant tornado outbreak including long track, violent tornadoes.(40-50 sig tors on the sref) Precip models like the WRF and NAM hold off on almost all convection in the southern high risk. I wonder how the SPC will handle this in the 0600z update. It seems like convective coverage may be very limited but convection that does form will have enhanced strong tornado risk. Will 30% or 45% tornado be warranted? I guess we have to wait and see. I'm not to worried about tomorrow, especially with less forcing today and things breaking out early. I think we'll see sups develop along the dryline across Northern OK and South/Central KS by 21-23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 40% I would have to guess There is no 40%, its 30% or 45%. And my guess is 30% with the first outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I'm not to worried about tomorrow, especially with less forcing today and things breaking out early. I think we'll see sups develop along the dryline across Northern OK and South/Central KS by 21-23z. Also we have decided (at least we think) to target the Southern area, likely the South Central Kansas area. We are about an hour away from Kansas City right now and we'll be staying there tonight and hitting the road early tomorrow. We figure by staying there, we can go either direction, but we'll likely head Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 40% I would have to guess I don't think they will go higher than 30% on the 06z outlook, that said, the northern threat area looks incredible as well on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 I'm not to worried about tomorrow, especially with less forcing today and things breaking out early. I think we'll see sups develop along the dryline across Northern OK and South/Central KS by 21-23z. I certainly didn't expect the amount of convection today that we ended up seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 clipped from the evening discussion up here in the 612-651. i guess we're not out of the woods here in the twin cities. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM OVER COLORADO THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND PASS ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW AND A STRONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NE AND IA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE SEEMS TO BE A CREDIBLE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NIGHT FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH...WITH HIGH EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE EVENING WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS ON SEVERAL SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MN. RECENT RESEARCH DONE HERE BY DEVINNY AND HULTQUIST SHOW THAT THIS TYPE OF UPPER PATTERN (SOUTHWEST FLOW ARCHETYPE) WAS THE ONLY ONE THAT HAD STRONG NIGHTTIME TORNADOES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORE DISTRESSING IS WATCHING THE CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS. YESTERDAY THE NUMBER 5 ANALOG WAS MARCH 29 1998. TODAY THIS ANALOG HAS MOVED TO NUMBER 3. HENCE...SATURDAY NIGHT IS AN INTENSE PERIOD OF INTEREST. IN ADDITION...A DIFFLUENT 850-300MB THICKNESS PATTERN SPREADS INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN BY 15/06Z ALONG WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN THE DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THIS PUSHES THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE 850-500MB WIND CROSSOVER IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 KNOTS BY SUNDAY MORNING. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO BOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT RACES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES. YOU DEFINITELY GET A FEEL FOR THIS LOOKING AT THE ARW WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Surface DEWPS/MSLP/850mb winds 00z NAM at 21z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I'm not to worried about tomorrow, especially with less forcing today and things breaking out early. I think we'll see sups develop along the dryline across Northern OK and South/Central KS by 21-23z. Thats somewhat like what the latest 00utc NAM shows. Maybe the models dont have a good hold on precip potential. But man when you see those sig tors on the SREF, they are pretty crazy. Whats your prediction on the northern high risk in Nebraska? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Storm South of Erick, OK (and just south of I-40) looks like it's about to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 00z NAM4 has cells firing in the southern risk area as well. Very well defined discrete cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 While many convective parameters are very favourable for a significant tornado outbreak including long track, violent tornadoes.(40-50 sig tors on the sref) Precip models like the WRF and NAM hold off on almost all convection in the southern high risk. Although the 00utc nam shows some convection in KS/OK firing around 00utc. I wonder how the SPC will handle this in the 0600z update. It seems like convective coverage may be very limited but convection that does form will have enhanced strong tornado risk. Will 30% or 45% tornado be warranted? I guess we have to wait and see. In this setup they will stay with a high risk. You can look at a date like 5/29/04 in an amazing setup where the cap held pretty strong in OK and S KS yet 2 monster lone supecells, one in OK and another in S KS dropped numerous tornadoes ultimately verifying the high risk anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 best vid i've seen from norman Wow that's amazing. Yep that was definitely the chaser I was watching earlier that I got a screenshot of before the stream went down when he moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 And interestingly, while that storm is moving E, NE, a small cell developed a few frames ago and quickly intensified moving almost completely North... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 00z NAM4 has cells firing in the southern risk area as well. Very well defined discrete cells. Have a screen grab? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 In this setup they will stay with a high risk. You can look at a date like 5/29/04 in an amazing setup where the cap held pretty strong in OK and S KS yet 2 monster lone supecells, one in OK and another in S KS dropped numerous tornadoes ultimately verifying the high risk anyway. True, limited storm coverage may enhance the strong tornado risk for the storms that do form with un obstructed flow of moisture and access to many favourable parameters without being limit by surrounding storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Current 500mb set-up FULL SIZE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Have a screen grab? 1z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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