Indystorm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 its possible the SW OkC storms are combining into a small MCS..with the old cooperton storm the WAA wing of it moving more slowly north and the storm just west of atlus will become the faster moving wind machine moving more east I was just thinking that myself, but potential for tors remains high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Stovepipe tornado reported by Ben Holcomb with the eastern cell. 2nd stovepipe report now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Stovepipe tornado reported by Ben Holcomb with the eastern cell. No warning? Accompanied by obvious couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Tornado Watch has been extended to 4 am DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER SWRN OK /FROM W LTS TO NW FSI/ IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT VAD OBSERVATIONS FROM FREDRICK OK AND TWIN LAKES OK INDICATE NOTABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE DICTATED BY ABILITY OF STORMS TO MANAGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ARE INCREASING WITHIN A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WAS NOT OVERTURNED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Stovepipe tornado reported by Ben Holcomb with the eastern cell. This supercell has had very strange behavior, it continues more north of east movement and is quite close to Carnegie. Circulation intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 All 3 cells starting to hook again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 RUC already progging a serious LLJ tomorrow evening, 55kts by 23z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 We just saw a small back lit wedge on the Carnegie cell. Now moving east out of the RFD and watching a beautiful wall cloud to our north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 TOROUN OKC015-075-140215- /O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0015.120414T0144Z-120414T0215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 844 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT * AT 841 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF CARNEGIE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 New tornado watch has tor probs 50/40, higher then the previous watch. Mentioning significant tornadoes are still possible. DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER SWRN OK /FROM W LTS TO NW FSI/ IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT VAD OBSERVATIONS FROM FREDRICK OK AND TWIN LAKES OK INDICATE NOTABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE DICTATED BY ABILITY OF STORMS TO MANAGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ARE INCREASING WITHIN A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WAS NOT OVERTURNED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Rick Mitchell on KOCO keeps stressing that this isn't a normal severe weather event. The wind fields are as such, that these storms will not weaken, and will remain tornadic all the way through the Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 That cell unoccluded fast. looks as tornadic as ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 Rick Mitchell on KOCO keeps stressing that this isn't a normal severe weather event. The wind fields are as such, that these storms will not weaken, and will remain tornadic all the way through the Metro. The fact that we're seeing such activity with a stronger cap today and lesser wind fields than progged tomorrow is quite foreboding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Rick Mitchell on KOCO keeps stressing that this isn't a normal severe weather event. The wind fields are as such, that these storms will not weaken, and will remain tornadic all the way through the Metro. while the bold may happen if they make it there by 11 or so and they outflow doesn't mess things up..things like pretty "normal" to me.winds fields are not off the charts yet..tomorrow/night is a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 RAP for tomorrow afternoon (before the jet increases even more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Rick Mitchell on KOCO keeps stressing that this isn't a normal severe weather event. The wind fields are as such, that these storms will not weaken, and will remain tornadic all the way through the Metro. This agrees with earlier comments I have read that said that tonight's LLJ will maintain sig tor risk, then a lull tomorrow before the jet ramps up again and continues through tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Rick Mitchell on KOCO keeps stressing that this isn't a normal severe weather event. The wind fields are as such, that these storms will not weaken, and will remain tornadic all the way through the Metro. To be honest...looks like we may be in early stages of an MCS evolution...that may propogate this S of most of OKC metro. A few tornadoes could still occur...but wind might become the more significant issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 MCS time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM in through 18z SAT....looks like LLJ a bit stornger..991mb low..warm sector quite not as far north as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM is coming in pretty intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM 985 mb....more unstable in OK (3500 CAPE) but a super amount 1km of 3km helicity at 00z (300)..SE NE looks primed with backed winds of HEL 400-500 and CAPE over 2500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 MCS time Outflow boundary time... The 00z NAM is disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Will be coming into Chickasaw out ahead of this in a bit where winds are backed out of ESE. These things have been putting out serious outflow, but the low level flow keeps injecting new life. Still have a visible wall cloud to our north. Just passed a DOW truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 00z NAM is indicating a lot of morning crap over KS/OK. Clouds clear out by 19z. Storms start initiating across central OK by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Yikes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 00z NAM is indicating a lot of morning crap over KS/OK. Clouds clear out by 19z. Storms start initiating across central OK by 21z. That would probably be close to worse possible timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM soundings should be fun... Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 warm front finally gets going 0z sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM scares me tomorrow. Backs the lo way west and into western NE. Brings our CWA into some nasty potential storm environment along the warm front/triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 That would probably be close to worse possible timing. I apologize in advance for saying this, but I don't even need to say what that reminds me of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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