Coreyback Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 High risk is already rare enough that I can't see the value in creating a new categorical risk. I'm also not sure where he is getting that information from, unless it is in NWSChat. It certainly isn't in the 12Planet interoffice chats. For what it's worth, I didn't see anything about this in any relevant chats. Seems highly suspect. Maybe he meant higher than 60% probs? But even still, I'm not sure if that's necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It was a joke that Mike Hollingshead (storm chaser) posted about an hour ago, and obviously some of his FB friends are a bit dense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It was a joke that Mike Hollingshead (storm chaser) posted about an hour ago, and obviously some of his FB friends are a bit dense. That is good to hear. A new category above high would be an awful idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 lol @ people thinking a governmental agency would able to change a policy that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It was a joke that Mike Hollingshead (storm chaser) posted about an hour ago, and obviously some of his FB friends are a bit dense. Okay good. Couldn't see the SPC having the go ahead to do that, since a HIGH risk is already pretty rare enough as it is. Couldn't see them change a policy in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The strong 12z GFS run really ramps up the low level helicity across eastern NE along/near the warm front Saturday. Some of the hodos up there look nasty. 12Z GFS is also substantially faster with the ejection than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 For what it's worth, I didn't see anything about this in any relevant chats. Seems highly suspect. Maybe he meant higher than 60% probs? But even still, I'm not sure if that's necessary. Armageddon risk! lol. This is bunk, High risk it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The strong 12z GFS run really ramps up the low level helicity across eastern NE along/near the warm front Saturday. Some of the hodos up there look nasty. 12Z GFS is also substantially faster with the ejection than 00z. I am at work and cannot look for myself... What time frame are we talking about here for imitation of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 http://ow.ly/i/z137 Updated severe weather outlook graphic for today/tonight from the NWS in Norman, FWIW. http://ow.ly/i/z14h Updated severe weather outlook graphic for Saturday into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Dprog/Dt 00z SUnday 12z/00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It was a joke that Mike Hollingshead (storm chaser) posted about an hour ago, and obviously some of his FB friends are a bit dense. Well looks as if everybody has been successfully whipped into a frenzy about this. I hope the majority of people in the field are focused on getting the message out and not on the "wedges" they'll get to see tomorrow. As an aside, I can't wait for the "there was no warning" stories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 09z SREF has a Sigtor of 40 showing up in S-CENTRAL, SW OK this evening at 03z. 12z NAM has convection in the area at that time. 09z SREF also has a 50 over E NE tomorrow at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I am at work and cannot look for myself... What time frame are we talking about here for imitation of storms? 12z GFS unleashing DMC as early as 18z across eastern NE...21z along the dryline. RGEM suggests something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 lol @ people thinking a governmental agency would able to change a policy that quickly. Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the use of "Tornado Emergency" basically on the fly? I don't think it takes an act of congress to change wording on short notice. I'm not saying any change needs to be made in this situation and as we are finding out this is a joke but I suppose if the SPC felt it was warranted they could go above high risk with out too much bureaucracy getting in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the use of "Tornado Emergency" basically on the fly? I don't think it takes an act of congress to change wording on short notice. I'm not saying any change needs to be made in this situation and as we are finding out this is a joke but I suppose if the SPC felt it was warranted they could go above high risk with out too much bureaucracy getting in the way. Tornado Emergency came out as a local product on the fly. I don't know the inner workings of the NWS, but I imagine a local office has much more freedom in what they write in their warnings and statements, versus that of a national forecast product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the use of "Tornado Emergency" basically on the fly? I don't think it takes an act of congress to change wording on short notice. I'm not saying any change needs to be made in this situation and as we are finding out this is a joke but I suppose if the SPC felt it was warranted they could go above high risk with out too much bureaucracy getting in the way. Joke fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Ok get back to the discussion of the event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 12z GFS unleashing DMC as early as 18z across eastern NE...21z along the dryline. RGEM suggests something similar. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 New Day 1 basically unchanged. AGAIN -- WITH GENERALLY WEAK/SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED INITIALLY -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT RISK CATEGORICAL FORECAST ATTM. HOWEVER...ANY STORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STRONG/LONG-LIVED TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Anyone think that the SPC will make their High risk larger on the next update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 12z RGEM and 12z GFS are really ramping up the strength of the upper low. RGEM has a tendency to be a bit over amped sometimes, but it goes 985 and cranks up the low in western NE with a neutral tilt low. Big changes have a tendency to come at this stage as the upper low begins to cross over the pacific coast...any increase in the low level mass fields just ramps things up all that much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Ok get back to the discussion of the event now. Which event? Today? Tomorrow? The next day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Which event? Today? Tomorrow? The next day? Any, as long as it is no longer about the "ludicrous risk" from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 To be honest, i'd rather play the WF than the dry line. Hodographs are disgusting up that way, and probably everybody and their mother will be on the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 To be honest, i'd rather play the WF than the dry line. Hodographs are disgusting up that way, and probably everybody and their mother will be on the dryline. I'm a big fan of targeting the northern end of outlooks. Then again maybe I'm biased from my time at DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I agree. SE NE would be my play from what little detail I have looked at. This event is waking me out of my weather slumber of this winter. Finally feeling the chase desires starting to flow. Of course my chasing will have to what till later in June. To be honest, i'd rather play the WF than the dry line. Hodographs are disgusting up that way, and probably everybody and their mother will be on the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Maybe we should create a thread about today (April 13th) in W/C forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 To be honest, i'd rather play the WF than the dry line. Hodographs are disgusting up that way, and probably everybody and their mother will be on the dryline. Yeah I agree. Chaser convergence will be insane along I-35. Really the only problem up that way may be substantially more DMC erupting along/near the warm front as the PV plows across Nebraska. Might get messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Yeah I agree. Chaser convergence will be insane along I-35. Really the only problem up that way may be substantially more DMC erupting along/near the warm front as the PV plows across Nebraska. Might get messy. Parameters just look so good up that way, even the early stuff will be incredibly potent before any possible mergers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Parameters just look so good up that way, even the early stuff will be incredibly potent before any possible mergers. Yeah I agree, I was just looking for an excuse not to head that way. Seems like I35 has all the attention with this event, but eastern NE seems like a better spot to be. The low level/deep layer shear is so strong with sufficient CAPE it seems storm mode will stay mostly discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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