Superstorm93 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The 10% tornado probabilities definitely didn't get verified, but the hatching was warranted based on the conditional potential alone in my opinion. I think if there had been greater surface heating today, the stregth of WAA aloft would not be chewing these warm sector storms up like it is. The updrafts just aren't being maintained through the warm nose. Agreed on both subjects. The potential was there, and the 10% hatched was warranted given impressive shear profiles and strong CAPE. Hi-res models really never liked today from what I had observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 As Srain mentioned, the Gulf should practically flow into the Plains on Saturday. Also, forcing doesn't look like an issue (as of now) I'm kinda surprised at the mention of "weak large scale ascent" in the ICT AFD. You have 60-80 kt H5 winds and 80-100+ kt upper level winds overspreading the warm sector by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Yeah, seen it happen before though 2-3 times already this year. When you hear the phrase "STRONG TORNADOES", in the SPC outlooks, it really sounds the alarms. Plains residents are probably praying for a repeat of today on Saturday. it's warranted if the situation would cause them should it reach its potential. part of the problem is that the strong tornado part is the one heavily fed to the public in a deterministic way when it's a probabilistic forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 For anyone interested, the 00z NAM is running. 120413 00 12041300 Fri Apr 13 01:15:54 UTC 2012 Initial Variable Conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I'm kinda surprised at the mention of "weak large scale ascent" in the ICT AFD. ICT Weather Briefing I sense low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I'm kinda surprised at the mention of "weak large scale ascent" in the ICT AFD. It's not entirely untrue. I'm not 100% confident of CI south of the KS/OK border on Saturday at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 ICT Weather Briefing I sense low confidence. Agreed. Could end up being an "average" plains outbreak. Not denying the potential for strong tornadoes Sat. at all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I'm kinda surprised at the mention of "weak large scale ascent" in the ICT AFD. You have 60-80 kt H5 winds and 80-100+ kt upper level winds overspreading the warm sector by 00z. Wind speed isn't important. It comes down to jet orientation and differential vorticity advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 Wind speed isn't important. It comes down to jet orientation and differential vorticity advection. Was just going to say that I agreed with the less favorable jet quad part of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Wind speed isn't important. It comes down to jet orientation and differential vorticity advection. Yeah the trough is positively tilted until overnight Saturday when the better forcing approaches. Could be an interesting overnight period for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I mean, it's not even just the unfavorable jet orientation, but the delayed forcing due to the positive tilt of the trough, the stout EML consisting of H7 temps over 7-8C, and the weak VV's progged by the NAM at 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Still trying to learn here, but from what I am reading, we might not be dealing with the MAJOR outbreak that was being discussed earlier? Sure is a sudden change of tone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I mean, it's not even just the unfavorable jet orientation, but the delayed forcing due to the positive tilt of the trough, the stout EML consisting of H7 temps over 7-8C, and the weak VV's progged by the NAM at 00Z. From now until Saturday is a relatively long time in the world of severe wx. It doesn't take much to make an outbreak impressive given what is progged. You'll have to wait and see how things progress into Saturday morning. Tough to pin down the important mesoscale aspects as well this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Still trying to learn here, but from what I am reading, we might not be dealing with the MAJOR outbreak that was being discussed earlier? Sure is a sudden change of tone here. Not what I was trying to imply, my bad if I sounded that way. But I am thinking that there is a chance at least the southern half of the MDT won't verify. We're still on track for a significant outbreak, but we should keep in mind that it is by no means a lock and that there are possible failure modes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 From now until Saturday is a relatively long time in the world of severe wx. It doesn't take much to make an outbreak impressive given what is progged. You'll have to wait and see how things progress into Saturday morning. Tough to pin down the important mesoscale aspects as well this far out. All true, but none of the things I mentioned are mesoscale in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 All true, but none of the things I mentioned are mesoscale in nature. I know, just throwing that out there as an addition to everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Just looking at the 00z NAM. Looks like it wants to blow storms up across S OK by 16z tomorrow, expands them to the northeast with plenty of CAPE for severe weather. The surface winds are basically SWesterly. Redevelopment occurs over the NW 1/2 of OK during the afternoon as surface winds back to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 This is the 0z NAM sounding for Oklahoma City at 7pm cdt tomorrow. And this is only Friday evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 00z NAM already has the mid level circulation over the Four Corners by 21z Saturday.... Showing some strong VV signatures around the areas with the highest parameters Sunday evening/overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Saturday doesn't look much different from previous forecasts. Still crazy EHI showing up in the evening to midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 0z NAM for Saturday 23z at OKC. A Loaded field goal with a vertical staff. I'm getting chills just looking at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 really nice backing at the sfc by Saturday evening on the dryline with impressive H7 UVV signal in that area west of ICT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 Looks like it hints at updrafts going up ahead of the dryline as well, per that map. The NAM's soundings from 00z Saturday evening on across much of Central/Eastern KS and Central OK are pretty much off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Getting ready to make the drive to OK with 'kevlon62'. Early target call for tomorrow looks to be somewhere NW/W of OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 Depending upon morning convection, the possible event on Sunday looks to have a possible southern component as well into the Ozarks and Mid South despite the wind profiles looking a bit more wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Getting ready to make the drive to OK with 'kevlon62'. Early target call for tomorrow looks to be somewhere NW/W of OKC. Good luck and safe chasing this weekend. Keep us informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Looks like it hints at updrafts going up ahead of the dryline as well, per that map. There is according to the reflectivity before the line gets going behind the activity shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Today was a very interesting bust. Looks like a lack of significant moisture and surface heating killed this one. I would have to agree. Temps and Dewpoints just didn't get up there high enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Getting ready to make the drive to OK with 'kevlon62'. Early target call for tomorrow looks to be somewhere NW/W of OKC. Good luck and stay safe! And btw, must be nice! lol. Maybe we'll see you out there somewhere on Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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