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April 12th/13th and 15-16th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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As the dryline retreats and cold front intersects it it appears like we're going to try and unzip some cells along the boundary. Some of the southern portions of this might be able to sustain themselves and remain discrete.

Are you saying convergence along that boundary where they collide? If so this could get interesting. Sorry, I may ask some questions along the way, as I am trying to get a better feel for forecasting tornadoes. I figure this is a good time/place.

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Screw the New England forum, this is where it's at.

There was a nice hook echo forming in Western Nebraska but it seems to have reorganized into a single cell.

Thanks for the kudos....But this is one Midwesterner who follows your nor'easters too! Going to be a very active weekend for the plains and possibly the great lakes heartland.

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Are you saying convergence along that boundary where they collide? If so this could get interesting. Sorry, I may ask some questions along the way, as I am trying to get a better feel for forecasting tornadoes. I figure this is a good time/place.

Exactly. It's definitely taking place in Nebraska, but the question is whether or not the updrafts can sustain themselves farther south in Kansas where the EML has been a little more stout.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

751 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 745 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO

3 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRENTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 74.

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* AT 745 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO

3 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRENTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

Spinning up tornadoes as it is crossing the warm front. Really tough to warn for as they are pretty much generated below beam level.

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DDC.gif

Low clouds did a number on the forecast warm sector. Similar story with the LBF sounding too. Just didn't get enough surface heating to sustain surface based storms off the dryline.

If you had strong forcing you might be able to get away with this type of sounding. But with subtle and more conditional forcing, you just aren't going to get truly vigorous convection rooted in the boundary layer.

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Even in areas that had significant surface heating (e.g. TX Panhandle), the cap was too strong and forcing too weak. Incipient TCU in western KS looked to be killed by the cirrus shield that moved over the area in the late afternoon. Today won't affect tomorrow directly, but the same issues today will be present tomorrow - lack of forcing and a warm layer at 700mb.

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Slight risk with 1 tornado watch, so it wasn't really that big a bust. Maybe it was if you went by the signifigant tornado parameter, but what else is new?

pretty close to a mod risk with 1630z upgrade. it happens. stuff is hyped way more now than it used to be though so it seems bigger than it is maybe.

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pretty close to a mod risk with 1630z upgrade. it happens. stuff is hyped way more now than it used to be though so it seems bigger than it is maybe.

Low level Gulf flow is finally wide open tonight. Should increasing rapidly throughtout the day making for an interesting Saturday. We will see.

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The hatching really has nothing to do with the distribution of reports, it only is meant to suggest that the severe weather in question (in this case tornadoes) may be significant.

Yes of course, but the point is that this was not an event that verified the outlook.

It really doesn't matter though, today was only a 'slight risk' and I don' think anyone was expecting anything of substance.

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Eh, I'd expect more than a few reports with a 10% hatched tornado risk.

Yeah, seen it happen before though 2-3 times already this year. When you hear the phrase "STRONG TORNADOES", in the SPC outlooks, it really sounds the alarms. Plains residents are probably praying for a repeat of today on Saturday.

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Yeah, seen it happen before though 2-3 times already this year. When you hear the phrase "STRONG TORNADOES", in the SPC outlooks, it really sounds the alarms. Plains residents are probably praying for a repeat of today on Saturday.

Except Saturday's threat is a whole different beast compared to the ones today or even tomorrow.

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Yes of course, but the point is that this was not an event that verified the outlook.

It really doesn't matter though, today was only a 'slight risk' and I don' think anyone was expecting anything of substance.

The 10% tornado probabilities definitely didn't get verified, but the hatching was warranted based on the conditional potential alone in my opinion.

I think if there had been greater surface heating today, the stregth of WAA aloft would not be chewing these warm sector storms up like it is. The updrafts just aren't being maintained through the warm nose.

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Low level Gulf flow is finally wide open tonight. Should increasing rapidly throughtout the day making for an interesting Saturday. We will see.

shouldnt be too "disappointing" unless you were one who thought this was a week-long barrage of the most violent weather ever like a well known ex-tv chaser might have said on facebook. later in the yr today might have had more oomph tho the capping is pretty strong with a lack of solid forcing. my only real question on sat is timing and its implications of what lvl of "bigness" the event reaches.

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