Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Was the Alabama outbreak not a high risk on Day 2? For some reason I was thinking so, but I'm probably wrong. Nope, April 7th, 2006 was the last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I doubt we see a day 2 high risk if there is any doubt about the impact of Friday evening convection. Just in case you didn't understand what I meant... When I said Day 2, I meant the Day 2 outlook coming out tomorrow for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Nope, April 7th, 2006 was the last time. I stand corrected! My memory is already failing me. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Just in case you didn't understand what I meant... When I said Day 2, I meant the Day 2 outlook coming out tomorrow for Saturday. Yes I know. I'm saying that I doubt they would issue a day 2 high risk tomorrow for Saturday if there are questions about how long the Friday evening activity will linger. Personally haven't been following the entire setup very closely so I don't know how much of a concern that may actually be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 There was morning convection during the 4/27 outbreak last year. didn't seemed to cause any trouble for severe later in the day. lots of big outbreaks have morning convection. march 1990 had a big morning mcs that left boundaries for the hesston storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 new meso for e tx panhandle to w ok/nw tx http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0503.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 SigTor just popped up to 3 in Western KS and cell in Hitchcock County is getting a hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Nice cell just north of the KS/NE border. Classic structure, and suspending a really large 60+ dBZ core aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 And it just went tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 SigTor just popped up to 3 in Western KS and cell in Hitchcock County is getting a hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 Convection waits to go off until 21z on Saturday like the ICT discussion suggests and we're looking at very, very dangerous scenario. Any supercell will be in the vicinity of insane parameters and the perpendicular shear vectors and isolated pockets of stronger capping both highly favor discrete supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Jeffrey Gonzales is on the TW'd storm, looks like a ground scraping wall cloud. http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=jeffrey.gonzales&uid=270 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 This is a hodograph for the vicinity of that warned cell. It tried to throw off a left split that died within a couple volume scans. You can see from the hodograph that there is a long, looping look to it, without much straightness. This favors the right movers over the left, hence the quick demise of the spliter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The smaller cell just to the immediate south already has a nice mid-level couplet as well. That cell already over 42kft tall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The trailing cells also have the "look" to them, especially the one nearest to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 AT 631 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF STRATTON NE...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The chasers on the warned storm have reported Tennis Ball size hail with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 These cells are really winding up as they interact with the warm front. It will be interesting to see how long the front maintains some influece on the cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Nice BWER on the cell just south of the tor warned cell at 2.4° tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The storm NW of Imperial also has some rotation. It too likely has hail with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Great shot on Jeffrey's cam, you can see the RFD wrapping around the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Imperial storm is now near Grant...moving for Madrid and Elsie. Certainly has tornadic potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Imperial storm is now near Grant...moving for Madrid and Elsie. Certainly has tornadic potential. To add to that, just went tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 a lot of chasers driving in circles over much of western ks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 New updraft going up along the KS/NE border on the south side of the middle cell due east of Benkelman. Cell is moving in on the cell just to the north too. With the updraft base and the merging of the two cells we may see some action from this in the next half hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Unless it's a radar error, which it could be, strong rotation is now near Elsie NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Might be stuff going up in the SW corner of Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Intense circulation along the dryline (misocyclone) rippling northward, west of Goodland. As the misocyclone advects dry air eastward it is thought to increase the moisture convergence on the northeast/east side of the circulation and could be an area that locally weakens the cap enough to fire convection. Being so close to the radar helps us to see the small scale circulation without mobile Doppler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 84kts of inflow into the cell east of Benkelman at about 8500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Here is the latest radar image from that area. A cell began forming right in that area of the misocyclone, roughly 20 minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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