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April 12th/13th and 15-16th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Just in case you didn't understand what I meant...

When I said Day 2, I meant the Day 2 outlook coming out tomorrow for Saturday.

Yes I know. I'm saying that I doubt they would issue a day 2 high risk tomorrow for Saturday if there are questions about how long the Friday evening activity will linger. Personally haven't been following the entire setup very closely so I don't know how much of a concern that may actually be.

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There was morning convection during the 4/27 outbreak last year. didn't seemed to cause any trouble for severe later in the day.

lots of big outbreaks have morning convection. march 1990 had a big morning mcs that left boundaries for the hesston storm.

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Convection waits to go off until 21z on Saturday like the ICT discussion suggests and we're looking at very, very dangerous scenario. Any supercell will be in the vicinity of insane parameters and the perpendicular shear vectors and isolated pockets of stronger capping both highly favor discrete supercells.

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RUC_255_2012041222_F02_40.0000N_101.5000W_HODO.png

This is a hodograph for the vicinity of that warned cell. It tried to throw off a left split that died within a couple volume scans. You can see from the hodograph that there is a long, looping look to it, without much straightness. This favors the right movers over the left, hence the quick demise of the spliter.

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Intense circulation along the dryline (misocyclone) rippling northward, west of Goodland. As the misocyclone advects dry air eastward it is thought to increase the moisture convergence on the northeast/east side of the circulation and could be an area that locally weakens the cap enough to fire convection. Being so close to the radar helps us to see the small scale circulation without mobile Doppler.

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