JoMo Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 18z NAM tomorrow evening. This is in a sheared and unstable environment in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Liking the nice dryline bulge the 12z NAM shows on the OK/KS border for tomorrow evening. Have to see if that stays there in later runs, because right now I'm trying to narrow down a wide area of potential starting locations for chasing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The storms forming along a line from Imperial to Goodland could potentially be the first group to watch during the next several minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Updated hazards from the CPC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Thats a terrible map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 That's a really awful map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Updated hazards from the CPC... I can tell this map was made in ArcGIS... It's a total MESS. Someone at CPC needs to take a class in Cartography! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I can tell this was made in ArcGIS... It's a total MESS. Someone at CPC needs to take a class in Cartography! Not to side track this thread - but do not blame the program... ArcGIS is rather amazing....when you know how to use it properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I can tell this was made in ArcGIS... It's a total MESS. Someone at CPC needs to take a class in Cartography! Think most anyone could do a better map in Photoshop even. ArcGIS does look quite nice, when used properly of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Not to side track this thread - but do not blame the program... ArcGIS is rather amazing....when you know how to use it properly. Last comment on this... ArcGIS is amazing, I'm currently in a class for it. This maps failure is simply the creator's fault/ lack of cartography skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 meanwhile, first TVS of day on cell at CO/NE border south of Chappell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Thats a terrible map. the us looks kinda like a cow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 the us looks kinda like a cow Eat More Chicken! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Baroclinicity's thoughts were correct that he might have to be dealing with svr wx up in his North Platte area this evening. An EF-3 already hit North Platte on March 18 of this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The 18z NAM is very impressive for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Hardly anything is really firing in the actual watch zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 All of the global models appear to be on the same page with regard to the timing of the trough ejection for the Saturday event. There really isn't a whole lot of room for change from here on out on the synoptic scale, and I think a "SPC high risk" magnitude event is pretty much a given at this point. The main question is really: how big will this outbreak be? The potential for an event rivaling the historic Plains outbreaks of the past (i.e. 5/3/99, 4/26/91, 3/13/90, etc) is certainly there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The 18z NAM is very impressive for Saturday. Friday and Saturday may both be bad. A lot will depend on mesoscale features that may not become apparent until the day of the storms. If the 18z NAM is right, then tomorrow evening in N OK and S KS could be pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 18z NAM definitely looking ominous for portions of Kansas on Saturday. We are thinking Kansas at this point, plus that'll put us in the area of Salina for some Cozy Inn Hamburgers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 It's been a long time since we have had a multi day significant svr event particularly of the magnitude being forecast that might rival the historic plains outbreaks of the past. I'll probably be glued to this board through Sunday at least and very appreciative of the nowcasts and field reports which this community can provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishnut Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Weatherpimp I will be able to "chase" from right here in my apartment in downtown Topeka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The 18z NAM goes "gangbuster" status by 6z 850mb Winds: This could be a big tornado outbreak after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 ICT SAT: THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE MOVE SAT AND WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SW BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF 135 ON SAT AND MORE THAN LIKELY ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOP LATER SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE JET QUAD AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...FEEL THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WITH MID LEVEL COOLING OVER THE DRYLINE AND BACKED WINDS AFTER 21Z...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. EVEN WITH MINIMAL CAPPING...STILL FEEL CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL WAIT UNTIL GENERALLY AFTER 21Z TO DEVELOP AND MORE THAN LIKELY TOWARD 00Z SUN. WHAT IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR TORNADOES AFTER DARK IS THAT THE 0-3KM CAPE INCREASES AFTER 00Z WITH CIN REMAINING MINIMAL. SO ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS EARLY SAT EVENING WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO REMAIN ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBOS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LONG TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The 18z NAM goes "gangbuster" status by 6z 850mb Winds: This could be a big tornado outbreak after dark. Wow. Very impressive how wide the area of higher winds are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 How big of a tornado threat are we looking at for the remainder of tonight, and tommorow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Thank you!! That's what I have been saying all along! I lived my whole life in Oklahoma, and I don't remember having a significant overnight tornado threat. The only I can remember was the 1984 overnight event that hit Morris and Mannford, cities outside of Tulsa. This could be quite scary! Most huge tornadoes for Oklahoma comes in the afternoon, early evening. Granted I'm not exactly sure how nocturnal is defined but Oklahoma gets a decent amount of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I know this always comes up a few times every year, but tomorrow we really may see the first D2 HIGH risk in six years. Not only is there a strong chance of tornadoes, but the greatest threat is after dark. This could be a very dangerous situation if the solution the models are showing comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I doubt we see a day 2 high risk if there is any doubt about the impact of Friday evening convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I know this always comes up a few times every year, but tomorrow we really may see the first D2 HIGH risk in six years. Not only is there a strong chance of tornadoes, but the greatest threat is after dark. This could be a very dangerous situation if the solution the models are showing comes to fruition. Was the Alabama outbreak not a high risk on Day 2? For some reason I was thinking so, but I'm probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 There was morning convection during the 4/27 outbreak last year. didn't seemed to cause any trouble for severe later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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