OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Hi-res models really like the idea of a dry line circulation down by KFDR. Should something go down there, the environment should be extremely favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I'm not chasing (never have, want to some day), but besides chaser convergence, am I the only one sniffing initiation in Oklahoma near dusk/fading light, and thinking Kansas to Iowa would be better place to be Saturday afternoon? if ks/ok goes right it will be big it seems but if i were out i'd be very tempted to play in the north. models have continued to be pretty consistent on it and plenty of analogs produced well on the northern zone. plus ok is going to be a zoo lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I'm not chasing (never have, want to some day), but besides chaser convergence, am I the only one sniffing initiation in Oklahoma near dusk/fading light, and thinking Kansas to Iowa would be better place to be Saturday afternoon? We are leaning towards Kansas/Iowa right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The new 1730 Day 2 outlook is a joke. http://www.spc.noaa....lk_1730_any.gif Looking at the SREFs Craven Brooks and SigTors on the SPC site, I'd have a hard time coming up with a major quibble with the degreed mets and severe specialists at SPC. 15% in the hatched area might be a tad low, but I'd trust their judgement over mine. But that is just me, just a rank amateur hobbyist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 But I agree with your sentiment...what's humbling IMO is that , if these set ups play out as depicted, .. I actually deleted the post. Sorry to be a downer. We have a narrow storm popping up over near Sterling Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 We are leaning towards Kansas/Iowa right now. I think eastern Kansas is looking the best right now. I feel Iowa needs a bit more amplification from the models to convince me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Hi-res models really like the idea of a dry line circulation down by KFDR. Should something go down there, the environment should be extremely favorable. I've noticed that on the 16Z and 17Z RUC. I'm pulling into Childress now and am going to sit here for a while, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 This system extends well W of the Plains. As we saw yesterday, some impressive dynamics at play even in CA... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL RANGES INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 121811Z - 121915Z A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 18Z WV IMAGERY REFLECTS AN AREA OF IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHING THE NRN CA COAST. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER FEATURE. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION PER EUREKA RADAR...IN PART DUE TO STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS WITH THE WRN TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY IMPACT THE COAST...A TEMPORARY WEAKENING MAY BE NOTED AS THE STORMS TRAVERSE INTO A DRIER AND RELATIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE/INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. FAVORABLE MID/UPPER JET DYNAMICS WITH AN APPROACHING SPEED MAX WILL FURTHER SUPPORT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH ROTATING STORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS LARGELY IN THE MID 40S AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.50 INCH MAY POTENTIALLY LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..HURLBUT.. 04/12/2012 ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...EKA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I'm not chasing (never have, want to some day), but besides chaser convergence, am I the only one sniffing initiation in Oklahoma near dusk/fading light, and thinking Kansas to Iowa would be better place to be Saturday afternoon? I like to chase but the sheer number of chasers that will be on this event along with the storms showing to fire around 00Z is making me double think going out this weekend. I do this for fun and to be honest it dosent sound too fun right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I actually deleted the post. Sorry to be a downer. We have a narrow storm popping up over near Sterling Colorado I thought your post was very reasonable and a well intentioned thought.The next few days should be great for severe enthusiasts and chasers, but awful for the poor folks in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I think eastern Kansas is looking the best right now. I feel Iowa needs a bit more amplification from the models to convince me. I think IA as well, as a matter of fact if the 12/12z run of the NAM verifies I would chose the Mason City area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 This is pointing to a 'High-Risk' for Saturday IMO - that's a huge hatched area for a Day 3 Probabilistic outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 torn watch till 8 CO/KS/NE http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0157.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Looks like a squall line is starting up near Sterling Colorado. I'm not sure if this is going to be a large severe storm. It could continue up to Nebraska with a few wind reports. I wish I could drive out to that 2000 CAPE bullseye near Sterling. Only 100 miles. Probably wouldn't be able to prove much if I did drive there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 torn watch till 8 CO/KS/NE http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0157.html Tornado probs are 70/20 in the watch, interesting. 80/60 for hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Tornado probs are 70/20 in the watch, interesting. 80/60 for hail. That is interesting. I haven't often seen a spread like that between 2+ tornadoes and significant tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Tornado probs are 70/20 in the watch, interesting. 80/60 for hail. i bet the next one to the south/se will have stronger sig tor odds. i'd be tempted to gamble on the e tx panhandle into sw ok. on a side note; how often does ok have overnight tornado events? seems somewhat unusual.. a threat sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 on a side note; how often does ok have overnight tornado events? seems somewhat unusual.. a threat sat night. It happens, but not terribly common. Seems like the Eastern part of the state has more night time tornadoes than the rest of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 i bet the next one to the south/se will have stronger sig tor odds. i'd be tempted to gamble on the e tx panhandle into sw ok. on a side note; how often does ok have overnight tornado events? seems somewhat unusual.. a threat sat night. Doesn't seem too likely. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS THROUGH THE ERN OK AND TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 121928Z - 122130Z SWRN KS THROUGH THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. OVERALL THREAT IS CONDITIONAL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INITIATION. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE...BUT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MIXING OUT WITH A DECREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE WEST ACROSS SWRN KS THROUGH THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM ERN CO SWD THROUGH WRN TX. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS CAPPED BY AN EML THAT HAS ADVECTED THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH AXIS OF UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS...CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE DEEPER FORCING ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EJECTING NEWD THROUGH CO WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DIABATIC WARMING AND DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TOWARD EVENING SUPPORTING A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 i bet the next one to the south/se will have stronger sig tor odds. i'd be tempted to gamble on the e tx panhandle into sw ok. on a side note; how often does ok have overnight tornado events? seems somewhat unusual.. a threat sat night. I think the last real big nighttime event was May 9th 2003, I keep comparing that 2 day event with this one, as OKC got hit 2 days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 If this sounding verifies, very bad things are going to happen in and around OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 i bet the next one to the south/se will have stronger sig tor odds. i'd be tempted to gamble on the e tx panhandle into sw ok. on a side note; how often does ok have overnight tornado events? seems somewhat unusual.. a threat sat night. Thank you!! That's what I have been saying all along! I lived my whole life in Oklahoma, and I don't remember having a significant overnight tornado threat. The only I can remember was the 1984 overnight event that hit Morris and Mannford, cities outside of Tulsa. This could be quite scary! Most huge tornadoes for Oklahoma comes in the afternoon, early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Doesn't seem too likely. high risk high reward maybe. plus there is a lin to get into western kansas. umschied is in pampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 There are somewhat occasional tornadoes with the overnight MCS complexes in OK and even up here. Those are not typically strong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Some agitated CU in CO/KS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The SPC says that the best chance for strong tornadoes is to begin at 22z...or about 5 PM CDT. The Watch has low EF2+ percentages, but does state that "INCREASING WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Man it's dead in here. Initiation along the CO/KS is starting to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Man it's dead in here. Initiation along the CO/KS is starting to take place. There's nothing going on yet, can't keep rehashing the same things over and over again, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Man it's dead in here. Initiation along the CO/KS is starting to take place. I think everyone is just waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Man it's dead in here. Initiation along the CO/KS is starting to take place. Its dead right now because the interesting stuff will happen later The storm SE of Sterling is probably going severe soon by looking at the current reflectivities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.